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Fall/Winter 2018-19 Complaint/Banter Thread


IWXwx
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14 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

The OP FV3 will be run 4 times a day, exactly like the current OP GFS. The main change is that the OP FV3 will be run at 13km for the entire 384hr run, where the current OP GFS is 13km to 240hr and then 27km from 240-384hr.

The FV3 will also have a 3km nest run at 0z/12z out to 120hrs, which will replace the NAM eventually.

I don't check the other subforums, but I would bet that this issue has been a hot topic over there. I just read an article from the Washington Post and it sounds like everyone else has the same opinion as the majority here have concerning our new Euro wannabe.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/14/weather-service-prepares-launch-new-prediction-model-that-many-forecasters-dont-trust/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.7c189d2cb3c9

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2 hours ago, IWXwx said:

I don't check the other subforums, but I would bet that this issue has been a hot topic over there. I just read an article from the Washington Post and it sounds like everyone else has the same opinion as the majority here have concerning our new Euro wannabe.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/14/weather-service-prepares-launch-new-prediction-model-that-many-forecasters-dont-trust/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.7c189d2cb3c9

God. "The storm missed the city". I'm sorry but that is a hot, steaming load of bullsh*t. Anyone who's ever seen a forecast model run knows that any model run can miss something at much less than five days out. that caption literally preys on the ignorance of non-weather enthusiasts. The FV3 might not be the greatest model , but it's definitely not that much worse than the other models either.

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2 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

God. "The storm missed the city". I'm sorry but that is a hot, steaming load of bullsh*t. Anyone who's ever seen a forecast model run knows that any model run can miss something at much less than five days out. that caption literally preys on the ignorance of non-weather enthusiasts. The FV3 might not be the greatest model run, but it's definitely not that much worse than the other runs either.

It’s performed terribly. It’s a steaming garbage pile right now. 

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3 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Are there ever 2 straight days of full sunshine in the winter ? Even the days that are forecast to be sunny usually end up being cloudy.

000
CXUS51 KILN 160539
CF6DAY
PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)

                                          STATION:   DAYTON OH
                                          MONTH:     FEBRUARY
                                          YEAR:      2019
                                          LATITUDE:   39 54 N
                                          LONGITUDE:  84 12 W

  TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND
================================================================================
1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18
                                     12Z  AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR
================================================================================

 1  21  12  17 -11  48   0 0.18  1.9    4  5.3 10 120   M    M   9 18     11  70
 2  39  12  26  -2  39   0 0.00  0.0    3  7.8 13 220   M    M   7 128    27 170
 3  60  37  49  21  16   0 0.00  0.0    1 10.2 16 210   M    M   5 1      21 190
 4  59  45  52  23  13   0 0.13  0.0    0 13.3 21 190   M    M   6 1      28 190
 5  54  37  46  17  19   0 0.03  0.0    0  8.3 14 310   M    M  10 12     18 310
 6  58  40  49  20  16   0 1.22  0.0    0  7.7 22 150   M    M  10 123    25 150
 7  61  33  47  18  18   0 1.91  0.0    0 13.0 35 270   M    M  10 123    42 260
 8  33  17  25  -4  40   0    T    T    0 20.6 35 260   M    M   7 8      40 260
 9  28  12  20 -10  45   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.4 16 310   M    M   5        20 320
10  35  20  28  -2  37   0 0.20  1.4    0  8.4 14 130   M    M   8 1      17 150
11  39  34  37   7  28   0 0.33  0.0    1  7.2 17  90   M    M  10 12     21  90
12  51  30  41  11  24   0 0.65  0.1    0 19.2 41 260   M    M  10 12     49 260
13  34  24  29  -1  36   0 0.02  0.4    0 22.1 35 250   M    M   7        46 270
14  52  31  42  11  23   0 0.00  0.0    0 12.4 24 190   M    M  10        30 230
15  50  26  38   7  27   0 0.00  0.0    0 15.0 28 280   M    M   8 18     34 280
================================================================================
SM  674  410       429   0  4.67     3.8 176.9          M      122
================================================================================
AV 44.9 27.3                              11.8 FASTST   M    M   8    MAX(MPH)
                                 MISC ---->  # 41 260               # 49  260
================================================================================
NOTES:
# LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES

COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2

                                          STATION:  DAYTON OH
                                          MONTH:    FEBRUARY
                                          YEAR:     2019
                                          LATITUDE:   39 54 N
                                          LONGITUDE:  84 12 W

[TEMPERATURE DATA]      [PRECIPITATION DATA]       SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 36.1   TOTAL FOR MONTH:   4.67    1 = FOG OR MIST
DPTR FM NORMAL:   6.7   DPTR FM NORMAL:    3.46    2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY
HIGHEST:    61 ON  7    GRTST 24HR  1.91 ON  7- 7      TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS
LOWEST:     12 ON  9, 2                            3 = THUNDER
                        SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL    4 = ICE PELLETS
                        TOTAL MONTH:   3.8 INCHES  5 = HAIL
                        GRTST 24HR   1.9 ON  1- 1  6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
                        GRTST DEPTH:   4 ON  1     7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM:
                                                       VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS
                                                   8 = SMOKE OR HAZE
[NO. OF DAYS WITH]      [WEATHER - DAYS WITH]      9 = BLOWING SNOW
                                                   X = TORNADO
MAX 32 OR BELOW:   2    0.01 INCH OR MORE:   9
MAX 90 OR ABOVE:   0    0.10 INCH OR MORE:   7
MIN 32 OR BELOW:   9    0.50 INCH OR MORE:   3
MIN  0 OR BELOW:   0    1.00 INCH OR MORE:   2

[HDD (BASE 65) ]
TOTAL THIS MO.   429    CLEAR  (SCALE 0-3)   0
DPTR FM NORMAL  -104    PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7)   6
TOTAL FM JUL 1  3650    CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10)  9
DPTR FM NORMAL  -206

[CDD (BASE 65) ]
TOTAL THIS MO.     0
DPTR FM NORMAL     0    [PRESSURE DATA]
TOTAL FM JAN 1     0    HIGHEST SLP 30.91 ON  9
DPTR FM NORMAL     0    LOWEST  SLP 29.53 ON 12

[REMARKS]

Not to also mention there's yet to be a day considered as Clear (Scale 0-3) so far this month. Sunshine this month is currently at about 19%. Last February ended with only about 16% of sunshine and only 1 day that was qualified as Clear.
Last February:
 

760
CXUS51 KILN 010544
CF6DAY
PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)

                                          STATION:   DAYTON OH
                                          MONTH:     FEBRUARY
                                          YEAR:      2018
                                          LATITUDE:   39 54 N
                                          LONGITUDE:  84 12 W

  TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND
================================================================================
1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18
                                     12Z  AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR
================================================================================

 1  41  14  28   0  37   0    T    T    0 14.7 24 330   M    M  10        30 350
 2  22  11  17 -11  48   0    T    T    0 11.1 21 330   M    M   4 18     26 320
 3  36  15  26  -2  39   0 0.00  0.0    0 13.8 23 200   M    M  10        29 180
 4  38  16  27  -2  38   0 0.12  0.5    T 14.4 29 220   M    M  10 16     39 210
 5  24   5  15 -14  50   0    T  0.1    T  6.4 17 290   M    M   7 1      20 340
 6  26  20  23  -6  42   0 0.04  0.3    T  4.6 14 340   M    M  10 18     15 340
 7  25  20  23  -6  42   0 0.21  1.5    1 10.3 18 330   M    M  10 18     22  20
 8  26   6  16 -13  49   0    T    T    1  8.4 15 230   M    M   7 1      19 230
 9  45  24  35   5  30   0 0.00  0.0    1 10.4 22 200   M    M   9        26 190
10  38  26  32   2  33   0 0.02  0.0    0  9.0 21  20   M    M  10 1      23  10
11  33  27  30   0  35   0 0.10  0.0    0 10.6 20 290   M    M  10 16     25 280
12  34  17  26  -4  39   0 0.00  0.0    0  9.0 15 340   M    M   6        18 340
13  38  17  28  -2  37   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.7 14 200   M    M   6        18 220
14  57  33  45  14  20   0 0.13  0.0    0  9.6 21 230   M    M   9 128    26 230
15  63  54  59  28   6   0 0.63  0.0    0 12.0 22 230   M    M   9 13     27 230
16  56  29  43  12  22   0 0.35  0.0    0 12.5 23 330   M    M  10 1      28 320
17  35  28  32   1  33   0 0.09  0.2    0  6.0 22 270   M    M  10 1      30 290
18  44  30  37   5  28   0 0.00  0.0    0 11.9 22 300   M    M  10        29 300
19  70  36  53  21  12   0 0.13  0.0    0 14.5 24 210   M    M   9 1      30 200
20  75  61  68  36   0   3    T  0.0    0 18.2 32 210   M    M   7        40 210
21  67  37  52  20  13   0 0.61  0.0    0 14.0 31 320   M    M   9 1      40 320
22  47  35  41   8  24   0 0.48  0.0    0 12.6 32 100   M    M  10 1      40  90
23  59  43  51  18  14   0 0.44  0.0    0 13.1 23 210   M    M  10 18     29 200
24  50  43  47  14  18   0 1.84  0.0    0 10.2 21 110   M    M  10 1      25 110
25  57  37  47  13  18   0 0.21  0.0    0 16.2 41 280   M    M   9 1      51 270
26  53  30  42   8  23   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.8 13 260   M    M   2        16 280
27  59  35  47  13  18   0 0.00  0.0    0  9.7 20 200   M    M   4        25 190
28  59  49  54  19  11   0 0.22  0.0    0 11.2 20 210   M    M   9 1      26 220
================================================================================
SM 1277  798       779   3  5.62     2.6 306.9          M      236
================================================================================
AV 45.6 28.5                              11.0 FASTST   M    M   8    MAX(MPH)
                                 MISC ---->  # 41 280               # 51  270
================================================================================
NOTES:
# LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES

COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2

                                          STATION:  DAYTON OH
                                          MONTH:    FEBRUARY
                                          YEAR:     2018
                                          LATITUDE:   39 54 N
                                          LONGITUDE:  84 12 W

[TEMPERATURE DATA]      [PRECIPITATION DATA]       SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 37.1   TOTAL FOR MONTH:   5.62    1 = FOG OR MIST
DPTR FM NORMAL:   6.1   DPTR FM NORMAL:    3.38    2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY
HIGHEST:    75 ON 20    GRTST 24HR  1.84 ON 24-24      TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS
LOWEST:      5 ON  5                               3 = THUNDER
                        SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL    4 = ICE PELLETS
                        TOTAL MONTH:   2.6 INCHES  5 = HAIL
                        GRTST 24HR   1.5 ON  7- 7  6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
                        GRTST DEPTH:   1 ON  9, 8  7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM:
                                                       VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS
                                                   8 = SMOKE OR HAZE
[NO. OF DAYS WITH]      [WEATHER - DAYS WITH]      9 = BLOWING SNOW
                                                   X = TORNADO
MAX 32 OR BELOW:   5    0.01 INCH OR MORE:  16
MAX 90 OR ABOVE:   0    0.10 INCH OR MORE:  13
MIN 32 OR BELOW:  17    0.50 INCH OR MORE:   3
MIN  0 OR BELOW:   0    1.00 INCH OR MORE:   1

[HDD (BASE 65) ]
TOTAL THIS MO.   779    CLEAR  (SCALE 0-3)   1
DPTR FM NORMAL  -173    PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7)   7
TOTAL FM JUL 1  4108    CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 20
DPTR FM NORMAL  -167

[CDD (BASE 65) ]
TOTAL THIS MO.     3
DPTR FM NORMAL     3    [PRESSURE DATA]
TOTAL FM JAN 1     3    HIGHEST SLP 30.77 ON 12
DPTR FM NORMAL     3    LOWEST  SLP 29.60 ON 25

[REMARKS]
#FINAL-02-18#

 

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46 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Explains my bit of sunshine this morning...

Tab3FileL.png?abde7c6ddcc045a0a323e9c32b04a874

We actually had snow flurries/ice crystals reach the ground from that this morning that I reported to NWS. The source appears to be a large steel mill in the area where the clearing originated. With the sun from the partial clearing reflecting off of the ice crystals, it gave off an eerie shimmering glow.

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21 minutes ago, mimillman said:

The medium range is just a parade of hits for Iowa and Minnesota. I think they lose complaining privileges for a couple years now.

Yeah I'm enjoying this while it lasts, since I'm sure we'll probably pay for it next season and beyond.  We had some horrific seasons in the past 10yrs, so it's nice to have one like this to be sure.  Last season southeast MI had the hot hand.  This season they've had a pretty down year in comparison.  Everything averages out eventually. B)

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8 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah I'm enjoying this while it lasts, since I'm sure we'll probably pay for it next season and beyond.  We had some horrific seasons in the past 10yrs, so it's nice to have one like this to be sure.  Last season southeast MI had the hot hand.  This season they've had a pretty down year in comparison.  Everything averages out eventually. B)

This. It's hard not to be disappointed as we almost every big event (or even the medium ones) slide past us, but then I remember that in the mere ten years I've lived here, I've experienced two of Chicago's top 5 snowstorms and one of her snowiest winters ever, and that helps put everything into perspective. 

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10 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah I'm enjoying this while it lasts, since I'm sure we'll probably pay for it next season and beyond.  We had some horrific seasons in the past 10yrs, so it's nice to have one like this to be sure.  Last season southeast MI had the hot hand.  This season they've had a pretty down year in comparison.  Everything averages out eventually. B)

Its one of the most frustrating winters in a while here. The end result still isnt disaster or anywhere near futility, but between the northern suburbs getting several surprise heavy bands that evaded us south of Detroit, and the heavy snows to the west and north (the upper peninsula is having an epic snowpack the last 2 months), its frustration for sure. As i said in another thread...only 2 of the previous 11 seasons had below average snowfall here, we were due. Doesnt mean im not going to complain lol. And likewise...just because Iowa and Minnesota are getting hit over and over and over again, considering theyve had several subpar snow seasons the last decade, i will not hold this epic stretch for them as a "you cant complain" card when future misses hit there. 

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Thought this was interesting...

https://www.latimes.com/science/la-sci-sn-jet-stream-flight-20190219-story.html

The jet stream, the high-altitude air current along which storms travel, is furious. The river of air was clocked at more than 230 mph over Long Island on Monday. That measure comes from the 250-millibar pressure level, meaning it was at a height above 75% of the atmosphere's mass. It sets the record for the fastest 250-millibar wind speed ever recorded over New York and, probably, the country.


Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk

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That time of the year again, when you realize the best of winter is behind you. All in all, could have been a much worse outcome given the way it was going in December and early January. Maybe we'll weasel our way up to 50" for the season when we wrap in April.

It goes to show what a dreadful decade it's been in Toronto for snow. A 50" season is considered a triumph.  That used to just be normal. :lol:

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The tread marks of SLPs over LOT's head is growing tiresome. 12Z suite shows no let up with this rain, zr pattern. Cold rain till mid March seems likely.Amended based on  longer range models make that cold and dry with suppression of systems to start March

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17 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

Around 6" of snow today, monthly total well over 70", snow up to my chest (I'm 6.2')... possibility of 1.5-2' of snow this weekend. :snowing:

 You are easily the snowiest place in the upper peninsula I would imagine. You should be an observer  For the MQT NWS. I'm very proud of my continuous observational record, though I must say I honestly do not know how you would record snow depth. That's usually something that you have to take several averages of and your snow so ridiculously deep all you can do is put out a stake in your best guess of a location with minimal drifting or blowing because you sure as heck can't walk around in it every day to take several measurements if needed lol

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On 2/20/2019 at 9:59 PM, weatherbo said:

Around 6" of snow today, monthly total well over 70", snow up to my chest (I'm 6.2')... possibility of 1.5-2' of snow this weekend. :snowing:

Man, I really hope there is no early season heavy rain event up there. It is going to be a disaster. Can you still see your house? :lmao:

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10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 You are easily the snowiest place in the upper peninsula I would imagine. You should be an observer  For the MQT NWS. I'm very proud of my continuous observational record, though I must say I honestly do not know how you would record snow depth. That's usually something that you have to take several averages of and your snow so ridiculously deep all you can do is put out a stake in your best guess of a location with minimal drifting or blowing because you sure as heck can't walk around in it every day to take several measurements if needed lol

I'm pretty sure there's places in more remote areas that receive more snow than me, it just isn't measured by anyone... just west of here, and places in the Keweenaw see as much, if not more on a yearly basis.  What makes this place special, is the fact that I sit high on a north facing ridge, with upslope in all but a few directions... it's really a unique spot.

The six years I have been here, tho, this is the deepest depth I have seen, and the most snow at the current to-date period.  I can see hitting 300" possibly this year.

And you're right, the snow is pretty much impossible to walk through, and exhausting to even snowshoe at this depth.  It's almost claustrophobic. 

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4 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Man, I really hope there is no early season heavy rain event up there. It is going to be a disaster. Can you still see your house? :lmao:

According to MQT, their snow pack there has a water equiv of 9", I probably have 10".  Could spell another disaster on the Dead River just south of me like 2003, I think it was.  Heavy rain and rapid snow melt.  And I keep thinking, there's still 6 weeks left of good snow climo.

Snow is up past 50% of most windows.

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