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Fall/Winter 2018-19 Complaint/Banter Thread


IWXwx
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My grade for this winter is slowly dropping from a B-.  It's only getting a B because I'm grading on the curve of the last 5 or 6 years lol.  We've had a couple nice events of 3-5 and one over 8 inches and a decent over performing ice event but it's this pesky cold -snow - torch - melt - rain back to cold sequence that's really getting old.  Haven't been able to hold onto a snow pack at all (yeah my climo isn't the best for that but at least give me 14 days!).  If I can go out with at least one more warning criteria snow the curve may just get it to an A, but it's gonna have to be a good one.  Really not looking forward to a potential flooding spring, there's a very saturated water table around here.:weenie:

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3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Can't wait for the FV to replace the GFS and NAM.

Gonna be fun times.

With all of the time and effort put into the model to keep up with the Joneses, its test run has been a sad exhibition. Long live The King. And for me, it's too early to grade the winter yet, as I consider March 15th the drop dead date at this latitude, so it has 4 more weeks to redeem itself.

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26 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Still a ways to go this winter but there's no way this won't be an A+.  That's saying something considering the 5 week stretch in Dec to early Jan with 0.3" of snow.

 

You guys have done really well. I’m happy you guys were able to cash in. You waited patiently without blowing up the banter/complaint thread lol. I’m thankful for my 6” storm that lasted 2 weeks on the ground. 

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The number of 33 and rain events I had this past week was incredibly disappointing. I seriously would have preferred a crippling ice storm over that. Now I will say that the thunderstorm that rolled through here very early on the 6th was pretty interesting as I had never seen such heavy precip at only 33 degrees.

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Went back and reviewed my forecasts since I apparently low-balled everything this winter.  

Nov 9th storm- Received 1.0".  Forecast 1", with perhaps 2" under the better bands on Nov 8th.  Yep, I low-balled that one.
Nov 25th storm- Received 12.8". Forecast 10-12" Nov 24th, then upped to 12-14" Nov 25.  Yep, I really low-balled that one.
Jan 18-19th storm- Received 4.8".  Forecast 3-5" Jan 17th.  Another low-baller. 
Jan 27-28 storm- Received 3.3".  Forecast 3-5" on Jan 26th.  Really low-balled that one.
Feb 11-12 storm- Received 0.8".  Forecast 0.5-1.5".  Low-ball.

I did an absolute horrible job with the Jan 22-23 storm though.  That one steadily shifted southeast in the final 48hrs and we went from what was looking like a mostly rain event, to a nice 6" event.  I was def too pessimistic to the end on that one.  

Another one that haunts me some is the Jan 18-19th event, that one had a sharp cutoff modeled just north of us for days.  We've seen some pretty sharp northern cutoffs the past few years so I was a bit pessimistic with that forecast.  That one did a pretty nice shift north in the final 24hrs that put the QCA into a much wetter system than what was shown for the days before.  In the end the northern cutoff was a lot less sharp as well, and areas up along the highway corridor picked up some snow.  

We've had a lot of things shift in our favor in the final 24-48hrs this season, which can definitely make a forecaster look like an ***hole.  I admit I can be a bit pessimistic at times, probably in some way trying not to jinx the storm lol, but to say I low-ball everything is simply not accurate.  

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43 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Went back and reviewed my forecasts since I apparently low-balled everything this winter.  

Nov 9th storm- Received 1.0".  Forecast 1", with perhaps 2" under the better bands on Nov 8th.  Yep, I low-balled that one.
Nov 25th storm- Received 12.8". Forecast 10-12" Nov 24th, then upped to 12-14" Nov 25.  Yep, I really low-balled that one.
Jan 18-19th storm- Received 4.8".  Forecast 3-5" Jan 17th.  Another low-baller. 
Jan 27-28 storm- Received 3.3".  Forecast 3-5" on Jan 26th.  Really low-balled that one.
Feb 11-12 storm- Received 0.8".  Forecast 0.5-1.5".  Low-ball.

I did an absolute horrible job with the Jan 22-23 storm though.  That one steadily shifted southeast in the final 48hrs and we went from what was looking like a mostly rain event, to a nice 6" event.  I was def too pessimistic to the end on that one.  

Another one that haunts me some is the Jan 18-19th event, that one had a sharp cutoff modeled just north of us for days.  We've seen some pretty sharp northern cutoffs the past few years so I was a bit pessimistic with that forecast.  That one did a pretty nice shift north in the final 24hrs that put the QCA into a much wetter system than what was shown for the days before.  In the end the northern cutoff was a lot less sharp as well, and areas up along the highway corridor picked up some snow.  

We've had a lot of things shift in our favor in the final 24-48hrs this season, which can definitely make a forecaster look like an ***hole.  I admit I can be a bit pessimistic at times, probably in some way trying not to jinx the storm lol, but to say I low-ball everything is simply not accurate.  

I tend to view your calls as conservative, not necessarily “pessimistic”. Many times, the shitload of factors that have to align to maximize ANY setup aren’t all there. So conservative is often accurate. It’s always easier to dial up expectations than to dial them back down. 

And it’s easy to look like a “low baller” when your back yard jackpots ALL THE TIME this season. :P

 

As much as it pains me to say, I have checked about every box for this winter and am ready for spring. Had thundersnow, thunder sleet, an incredible snowpack, and a bitchin’ ice storm. But there are fish to catch and golf to play. Let’s Morch it. 

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14 hours ago, King James said:


One of the worst winters I can remember. Lots of rain, fog, and ice. I would categorize most of the weather this winter here in east central IL as an inconvenience.

Lol, you have high expectations. I’ll give you December was a clunker, but it was for everyone. January was really good here. Mostly nickels and dimes, but we had a solid 3 week stretch of pretty good wintry appeal. But if a big dog is what you’re chasing, then I guess I understand. Alas, we’re in range of normal season snowfall. Nowhere near the disaster of past true sh*tty winters.

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Let’s Morch it. 

 

F* it, I’m in

 

the ice sleet rain trifecta has destroyed the slopes everywhere south of 45 north in the Midwest, and I don’t have enough vacation time to chase the killer pow they’ve been getting out west. been decent fat bike riding conditions but if I can’t ski on saturdays I’m ready to switch back to the singletrack on my mountain bike

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18 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

We've had a lot of things shift in our favor in the final 24-48hrs this season, which can definitely make a forecaster look like an ***hole.  I admit I can be a bit pessimistic at times, probably in some way trying not to jinx the storm lol, but to say I low-ball everything is simply not accurate.  

Other than the January 9-12 system, I can't recall any other storms trending northwest in the final 24-48 hours. It's been odd. 

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19 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

We've had a lot of things shift in our favor in the final 24-48hrs this season, which can definitely make a forecaster look like an ***hole.  I admit I can be a bit pessimistic at times, probably in some way trying not to jinx the storm lol, but to say I low-ball everything is simply not accurate.  

All you needed to do was start event threads, we'd all have a Bo snow pack by now lol.:tomato:

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22 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

FV operational launch set for March 20th, pending a successful 30 day test period.

Cross your fingers the test fails.


.

So this is replacing the current GFS? If so, wonder what sort of qualitative analysis has been done. Seems to fail the eye test so to speak.

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50 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

So this is replacing the current GFS? If so, wonder what sort of qualitative analysis has been done. Seems to fail the eye test so to speak.

Correct. The FV3 will become OP and replace the current GFS on that March 20th date, as long as it passes the upcoming 30 day final testing period.

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On 2/12/2019 at 7:52 PM, Indystorm said:

Did not know the FV was replacing the NAM....thought it was just GFS.  Is the short term resolution supposed to be that much better?

The OP FV3 will be run 4 times a day, exactly like the current OP GFS. The main change is that the OP FV3 will be run at 13km for the entire 384hr run, where the current OP GFS is 13km to 240hr and then 27km from 240-384hr.

The FV3 will also have a 3km nest run at 0z/12z out to 120hrs, which will replace the NAM eventually.

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2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Nah.  It's still the heart of winter.  "Go big or go home" season is March.  "Go home" season is April.

 I take snow until it won't snow anymore. Every year around this time we see some start to think spring or big storms only, but not me. Spring is by a mile my least favorite season, I absolutely dread it. Give me snow till the end of April then let it be summer.

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