Stebo Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 2 hours ago, buckeye said: For the Chicago area and western/central lakes that's true, but for the ohio Valley and eastern lower lakes that's not necessarily. The snowapocalypse of late Jan and Feb '10 being a great example. Besides, let's not forget the mentality of the MA poster. Any trough, cold air, or low pressure east of the continental divide is by default an HECS threat. Just looking at the data, I am not too keen on what I am seeing, it is more focused on a positive tilted troughing in the east. Yeah there is negative height departures in the east but it isn't a favorable storm setup even for OH Valley or eastern lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Yea hard pass on the big NE trough. Not too interested in air straight from Alberta with 0.000001" of QPF over 30 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 5, 2019 Author Share Posted January 5, 2019 I think I'm seeing a pattern here..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 22 minutes ago, IWXwx said: I think I'm seeing a pattern here..... Don't feel bad, at least you're not being teased with feet of digital snow. That damn model has me up to 70"+ for the season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 5, 2019 Author Share Posted January 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, buckeye said: Don't feel bad, at least you're not being teased with feet of digital snow. That damn model has me up to 70"+ for the season so far. Lol. Yeah, I put about as much faith in it as I do the nogaps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 14 hours ago, buckeye said: For the Chicago area and western/central lakes that's true, but for the ohio Valley and eastern lower lakes that's not necessarily. The snowapocalypse of late Jan and Feb '10 being a great example. Besides, let's not forget the mentality of the MA poster. Any trough, cold air, or low pressure east of the continental divide is by default an HECS threat. I browse the New England forum because there is some good insight in there, but it is funny because some people have been touting storm after storm there for 2 months now and nothing has happened. Some have been realistic, some have not. I don't visit the mid Atlantic forum though, I've heard its reputation lol. Here it's the opposite, some always assume it's going to be dry Northwest flow when a colder than average pattern is on the way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 I don’t really understand. The upcoming pattern in the next 10 days doesn’t scream cold to me, it just looks seasonal. Maybe low to mid 30s for highs seems cold compared to this absolutely atrocious winter so far, but in the heart of January it’s seasonal. The upcoming pattern looks good if you live in upstate Michigan/GTA/New York for clipper action, but for anyone south or west of there, here’s to praying for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 1 hour ago, mimillman said: I don’t really understand. The upcoming pattern in the next 10 days doesn’t scream cold to me, it just looks seasonal. Maybe low to mid 30s for highs seems cold compared to this absolutely atrocious winter so far, but in the heart of January it’s seasonal. The upcoming pattern looks good if you live in upstate Michigan/GTA/New York for clipper action, but for anyone south or west of there, here’s to praying for February. That's because the next 10 days won't be cold. All the talk about colder than average is at least 15 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Might have to consider bumping the ol Chicago futility thread eventually. Anyway, we are not talking about historic futility since November was a good month, but you can still find futility if you look for it. So if we just restrict the period to meteorological winter, here are the years without a 1" calendar day snow from December 1 through January 5. Not a very large number of years here, and obviously it narrows even more the farther you go into January. 1889-90 1896-97 1898-99 1906-07 1912-13 1936-37 1939-40 1941-42 1943-44 1982-83 2001-02 2012-13 2018-19 Daily data for 1996-97 is a little sketchy, but Ieft it out because snow depth measurements would suggest there was at least a 1" snow in December 1996. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 ^interesting thing about that data. It seems like it happens in clusters and then with 20-30+ year breaks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 I found it interesting that December 2018 opened with tornadoes in Illinois and closed on New Year's Eve with an EF-1 in Harrison county Indiana. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 I was going to say, I think for most of us futility is out of the question due to November's production. However, it'll be interesting to see how things unfold with regard to the DJF records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Talk about futility, as of Jan. 6 Indpls has yet to receive a season total of one inch of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 hour ago, Indystorm said: Talk about futility, as of Jan. 6 Indpls has yet to receive a season total of one inch of snowfall. Just north up here I've measure about 1.5. That was one snow, probably another inch on top of that in .25 inch increments. Sad but I don't expect much around here until J/F unless we get a N/D surprise. I'm still optimistic but if I start seeing a suppressed storm track as the cold sets in I'm gonna need some mind altering medication, not the fun kind lol. Only thing I can say so far is my heating bill has free'd up some cash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Da Bears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 36 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: Da Bears Nothing like Cody Parkey to top off an atrocious winter. **** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 hour ago, Jackstraw said: Da Bears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 13 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Luckily there's some exciting weather to look forward t.... oh wait. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Add this to my litany of complaints: The fact that it's pouring rain and forecast to hit 50 degrees today in southern Wisconsin in early January, and not a whiff of a severe threat anywhere in the country. Normally with conditions like that this time of year, we would be in a setup like January 7, 2008. Looks like 2019 wants to continue its predecessor's utter lameness in that regard. No hints of anything in the LR either to go along with the general paucity of snow systems to track. * This lifelong Wisconsinite was able to hold his tongue fairly well watching the end of yesterday's game with his Bears fan girlfriend... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 I can tell that the longer we go without a big storm or big cool down is slowly overwhelming those forecasting for cold. A few local weather individuals I follow on twitter have now stepped back from a prolonged cold and snowy 2nd half of January and February. The Buffalo NWS also says that beginning next week they expect a substantial warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 7 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: I can tell that the longer we go without a big storm or big cool down is slowly overwhelming those forecasting for cold. A few local weather individuals I follow on twitter have now stepped back from a prolonged cold and snowy 2nd half of January and February. The Buffalo NWS also says that beginning next week they expect a substantial warm up. interesting observation. I actually feel the opposite. Last week it was looking like the calls for a brutal cold end of Jan into Feb were in trouble, but everything I've seen since than has flipped back to that potential brutal cold period happening. As someone else said, cousin Eddy just brough Clark's boss to him with a christmas bonus + 20% higher than last year JB is now back to bringing up 77-78 and claiming a brutal 30 to 60 day period on the horizon.... shocking... I know. (as much as I'd love snow, it would almost be worth going back to a December pattern just to see him meltdown again). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 9 minutes ago, buckeye said: interesting observation. I actually feel the opposite. Last week it was looking like the calls for a brutal cold end of Jan into Feb were in trouble, but everything I've seen since than has flipped back to that potential brutal cold period happening. As someone else said, cousin Eddy just brough Clark's boss to him with a christmas bonus + 20% higher than last year JB is now back to bringing up 77-78 and claiming a brutal 30 to 60 day period on the horizon.... shocking... I know. (as much as I'd love snow, it would almost be worth going back to a December pattern just to see him meltdown again). Only time will tell. Heres Buffalo AFD. Since they're talking about beyond January 15th time frame, it looks like they arent sold on the idea of a cold second half. Looking further down the road...while we will be experiencing below normal temperatures during this period...a large impressive storm system over the northern Pacific in the vcnty of the Emperor Seamounts will set the stage for a warm up. A strong East Asian jet supporting this storm system will extend across the Pacific by the end of this forecast period...and this should encourage Pacific modified air to flood the country during the ensuing week. The influx of the maritime airmass into the center of the country with a pattern that typically induces ridging east of the Rockies will favor a spell of warmer weather for our region for the week following the end of this specific forecast period. Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, mississaugasnow said: Only time will tell. Heres Buffalo AFD. Since they're talking about beyond January 15th time frame, it looks like they arent sold on the idea of a cold second half. Looking further down the road...while we will be experiencing below normal temperatures during this period...a large impressive storm system over the northern Pacific in the vcnty of the Emperor Seamounts will set the stage for a warm up. A strong East Asian jet supporting this storm system will extend across the Pacific by the end of this forecast period...and this should encourage Pacific modified air to flood the country during the ensuing week. The influx of the maritime airmass into the center of the country with a pattern that typically induces ridging east of the Rockies will favor a spell of warmer weather for our region for the week following the end of this specific forecast period. Stay tuned. might be onto something. I was just looking at some things. The SOI which had gone strongly negative (-20 4 days ago) is now already back up to -4 and rising. The mjo (both gfs and euro), have us currently in 8 but moving to the COD in few days and then emerging out of the COD in phase 6. Those are all signals that certainly don't support any brutal cold period down the road. Also, the 12z gfs looks dramatically different days 14 and 15 on the 500 map than it has in recent runs, (and not in a good way). Either way, it's going to be fascinating to see how all of this winds up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 The website you are trying to access is not available at this time due to a lapse in appropriation. NOAA.gov and specific NOAA websites necessary to protect lives and property are operational and will be maintained during this partial closure of the U.S. Government. See weather.gov for forecasts and critical weather information. NOAA Federal Employees: For access to the Notice to Federal Employees About Unemployment Insurance (SF-8), please Click Here. Grrrrr...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 8 minutes ago, IWXwx said: The website you are trying to access is not available at this time due to a lapse in appropriation. NOAA.gov and specific NOAA websites necessary to protect lives and property are operational and will be maintained during this partial closure of the U.S. Government. See weather.gov for forecasts and critical weather information. NOAA Federal Employees: For access to the Notice to Federal Employees About Unemployment Insurance (SF-8), please Click Here. Grrrrr...... What site did you try to go to? Fortunately, MRCC has been a nice workaround when looking up old data, but I know some stuff is hard to find outside of the NOAA sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 33 minutes ago, Hoosier said: What site did you try to go to? Fortunately, MRCC has been a nice workaround when looking up old data, but I know some stuff is hard to find outside of the NOAA sites. It's not a big deal. I attempted to hit the NCDC site (1981-2010 normals). It was just that it was third time it's happened in the past few days while I've been farting around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 hour ago, buckeye said: might be onto something. I was just looking at some things. The SOI which had gone strongly negative (-20 4 days ago) is now already back up to -4 and rising. The mjo (both gfs and euro), have us currently in 8 but moving to the COD in few days and then emerging out of the COD in phase 6. Those are all signals that certainly don't support any brutal cold period down the road. Also, the 12z gfs looks dramatically different days 14 and 15 on the 500 map than it has in recent runs, (and not in a good way). Either way, it's going to be fascinating to see how all of this winds up. FWIW It looks like a warm up after the cold snap later this week is in the cards, but it has looked that way for a while. Actually I'm a little surprised at the cold snap coming this week, at one time it looked like all out torch until around the 20th. Thereafter is when this alleged colder than average weather will hit. I'm assuming that's the warm up that NWS BUF was talking about, I cannot imagine a NWS forecast discussion discussing something more than 2 weeks down the road. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 17 hours ago, mimillman said: Nothing like Cody Parkey to top off an atrocious winter. **** Parkey certainly screwed up. However, the bigger issue yesterday is Parkey still scored most of the Bears' points. Six points from the offense is NOT going to win playoff games. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 46 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: FWIW It looks like a warm up after the cold snap later this week is in the cards, but it has looked that way for a while. Actually I'm a little surprised at the cold snap coming this week, at one time it looked like all out torch until around the 20th. Thereafter is when this alleged colder than average weather will hit. I'm assuming that's the warm up that NWS BUF was talking about, I cannot imagine a NWS forecast discussion discussing something more than 2 weeks down the road. Buffalo regularly spells out the pattern they think might happen. They even mention "looking further down the road" which means they are looking well beyond day 7. Time will tell, but the pattern change and cold and snowy forecasters have gone all in on the 20th here and on social media. They havent left much room for wiggle if the pattern fails to materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Back in the day when I really cared about snow, I'd be in full meltdown mode right now. Today, just enjoying day after day of easy commutes to work. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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