Fall/Winter 2018-19 Complaint/Banter Thread

[buckeye]

20 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I could end up with 100" and I still wouldn't be able to give this winter a top grade.  Losing December stinks.

Agree.   I can't recall the last decent December snow event....not to mention one over the holidays.   So damn sick and tired of winters that drag on through March and April.   Hopefully winter appears in a couple of weeks, let's loose snow and cold for 3 or 4 weeks then gets the hell out.

[pondo1000]

10 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Agree.   I can't recall the last decent December snow event....not to mention one over the holidays.   So damn sick and tired of winters that drag on through March and April.   Hopefully winter appears in a couple of weeks, let's loose snow and cold for 3 or 4 weeks then gets the hell out.

My expectations are so low any more that it doesn’t bother me as much. Winters (especially December) suck around here. Then it stays cold into April. So dumb.

[CheeselandSkies]

2018 in severe weather, with the exception of just a couple days, in a nutshell right here in the Day 4-8:

Quote

   It seems the evolution of the mid-level trough will favor a scenario
   in which the surface cyclone and strongest low-level mass response
   will be somewhat displaced from richer low-level moisture.

 

[ConvectiveIA]

So boring. I guess I can pretend I’m in Southern California again where I get excited about moderate winter rain storms 

[Indystorm]

Supposed to get less than a tenth of an inch precip tomorrow here in central IN, snow or rain.  We still haven't reached a cumulative total of an inch of snow yet this season.  Nevertheless I wish all of our posters here a White happy holly jolly merry Christmas and skill in forecasting upcoming winter storms in this new year.

[Jackstraw]

My dogs (New Foundlands and Landsears) winter coats are thicker than I've ever seen them and this old mans beard has been growing twice as fast the past couple months (weird but it seriously has).  According to those 2 forecast models we have a brutal stretch coming up in Jan-Feb. lol.  

[AppsRunner]

DSM will almost certainly finish December with 0.7” and 2.2” for the season. It’s not great. 

 

[Met1985]

Merry Christmas, everyone!

[Hoosier]

Merry Christmas.  Hopefully January treats us better than December lol

[IWXwx]

On 12/14/2018 at 3:41 PM, IWXwx said:

Amos at IWX sums it up with today's long term discussion opening:

REST OF THE FORECAST IS INCREDIBLY DULL

January's gonna rock.

 

[pondo1000]

Yay, more rain today and NYE. When/if this cold air ever gets here, is there any doubt it’ll turn dry?

[KokomoWX]

35 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Yay, more rain today and NYE. When/if this cold air ever gets here, is there any doubt it’ll turn dry?

Not a doubt.  The awful winter keeps on rolling into January.  

[buckeye]

47 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Yay, more rain today and NYE. When/if this cold air ever gets here, is there any doubt it’ll turn dry?

Winter of yore....

 

 

 

....worst nightmare.

Kidding aside, I'm with you, we are in the midst of my favorite time of year to get hammered with snow and once again....here we are. 

I did clean up leaves in the yard yesterday though....so there's that. 

[pondo1000]

10 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Winter of yore....

 

 

 

....worst nightmare.

Kidding aside, I'm with you, we are in the midst of my favorite time of year to get hammered with snow and once again....here we are. 

I did clean up leaves in the yard yesterday though....so there's that. 

Yeah, the whole month of December is going to get wasted! The weather yesterday was perfect for outdoor activities. 

Happy New Year!

[pondo1000]

32 minutes ago, KokomoWX said:

Not a doubt.  The awful winter keeps on rolling into January.  

Yup. Hate seeing December go the whole month without snow.

[iluvsnow]

After years and years of following the weather....I have seen this play out many times. Persistence...more times than not...rules the winter. Sure, there are exceptions..and maybe this will be the winter.But, if I had to wager right now....my bet is that January will be little different than what we have seen in December. For all the rejoicing about long range modeling, MJO cycles, SSW events, SOI and ENSO showing a cold, snowy pattern in January....the models are now beginning a retreat. The optimistic are shouting the delayed....but not denied credo. I have adopted a perverse acceptance of fate... and even getting a mild laugh at the Mid Atlantic weenies (home of the forum's most neurotic and pessimistic) as they begin their march towards the cliff. I hope I am wrong....but my bet is already placed.

[buckeye]

4 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

After years and years of following the weather....I have seen this play out many times. Persistence...more times than not...rules the winter. Sure, there are exceptions..and maybe this will be the winter.But, if I had to wager right now....my bet is that January will be little different than what we have seen in December. For all the rejoicing about long range modeling, MJO cycles, SSW events, SOI and ENSO showing a cold, snowy pattern in January....the models are now beginning a retreat. The optimistic are shouting the delayed....but not denied credo. I have adopted a perverse acceptance of fate... and even getting a mild laugh at the Mid Atlantic weenies (home of the forum's most neurotic and pessimistic) as they begin their march towards the cliff. I hope I am wrong....but my bet is already placed.

From the glass half full stance, I guess it's possible that the pattern from November could kick back in mid late Jan, so that's on the table.    I guess it really is too early to start writing winter's obit, but there has been so much hype about this winter, (east-centered especially).  It's not just the level of hype that was striking but the almost unanimous agreement among private forecasters.   If this winter turns out to be anything less than 'good'....mediocre ain't gonna cut it.... it will be the biggest widespread winter forecast bust in my many years of being an internet wxweenie, especially for the MA and NE.

That being said, there's still a couple of weeks to start turning the ship and saving things.

[mississaugasnow]

2 hours ago, iluvsnow said:

After years and years of following the weather....I have seen this play out many times. Persistence...more times than not...rules the winter. Sure, there are exceptions..and maybe this will be the winter.But, if I had to wager right now....my bet is that January will be little different than what we have seen in December. For all the rejoicing about long range modeling, MJO cycles, SSW events, SOI and ENSO showing a cold, snowy pattern in January....the models are now beginning a retreat. The optimistic are shouting the delayed....but not denied credo. I have adopted a perverse acceptance of fate... and even getting a mild laugh at the Mid Atlantic weenies (home of the forum's most neurotic and pessimistic) as they begin their march towards the cliff. I hope I am wrong....but my bet is already placed.

Assuming the full change out of this pattern is delayed by another 10-14 days, winter will really have to rock from mid-late January for about 6 weeks. Even then, we would need multiple monster storms hitting various parts of the sub for this winter to get a good grade. This is starting to feel like 2011-2012 

[Hoosier]

I tried pulling up some temp/precip maps for a certain year and got this.  

 

The website you are trying to access is not available at this time due to a lapse in appropriation.

NOAA.gov and specific NOAA websites necessary to protect lives and property are operational and will be maintained during this partial closure of the U.S. Government.

[buckeye]

19 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

The east coast establishment should have known better when the nino started coming in basin wide. I hoped one wouldn't form for this very reason(and I fell short on that one). The 2002-3 analog crap was stupid when you look at the 2002 fall and compare it to the 2018 fall, which created "cold" in totally different ways.

JB has been riding -02-03 HARD....often putting up verification maps to bolster his claim that it's a remarkable analog.    Heh, then again he's thrown 77-78 out there too....hell that's blasphemy.

I often wonder if anyone ever verifies seasonal analog forecasts after it's all said and done.   Every fall we get all these analogs being thrown at us....I wonder how many actually pan out?   Personally I think analogs are a crock and for pure entertainment.   When you think about how microscopic the sample size is, (going back 100 years or whatever), it's kind of a joke. 

[IWXwx]

I guess that it's only fitting to end a forgettable weather year with 34° and rain

[buckeye]

How is this possible? 60 degrees above normal here would be like 100 degrees for highs.    Has to be a misprint.

Sydney (AFP)

Australia's vast continent is sizzling through extreme heatwave conditions this week, with temperatures reaching record highs and emergency services on high alert for bushfires.

The mercury is up to 16 degree Celsius (60.8 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than usual for this time of the year for southern Australia, with numerous towns setting new December records, the Bureau of Meteorology said Friday.

[josh_4184]

LOL atr the APX Afd this morning, been a little bland and boring uncharacteristic for them until today. 

Quote

LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 351 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

...Colder with lingering snow possible then milder again...

High Impact Weather Potential...It still depends on the track of low
pressure.

Any mixed precipitation should change over to all snow Monday
evening and continue into Tuesday morning. This still hinges on the
track of the surface low discussed in the short term section above.
Lake effect snow showers are then expected Tuesday afternoon through
early Wednesday. Higher pressure and slowly rising heights/850 mb
temperatures should lead to precipitation free conditions Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Northern Michigan looks like it will
be in between low pressure systems moving by to the north and south
Thursday and Friday resulting in milder temperatures once again
along with low pops. This winter sure has really started out as a
dud...with Gaylord nearly 30 inches below normal. Of course this
could all change at some point which would be good news for anyone
that wants to hit the slopes and trails.

 

[mississaugasnow]

2 hours ago, buckeye said:

How is this possible? 60 degrees above normal here would be like 100 degrees for highs.    Has to be a misprint.

Sydney (AFP)

Australia's vast continent is sizzling through extreme heatwave conditions this week, with temperatures reaching record highs and emergency services on high alert for bushfires.

The mercury is up to 16 degree Celsius (60.8 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than usual for this time of the year for southern Australia, with numerous towns setting new December records, the Bureau of Meteorology said Friday.

I can see how they would do the mistake but its sloppy. 16C = 60F so thats how they got number.

Using a very quick rule of thumb which isnt bang on, 16C above normal would be roughly 32F above normal. 

Thats an impressive heatwave to get departures like that. 16C below normal in Toronto right now would be highs around -18C or 0F and in the summer that would be highs around 42C or 107F

[beavis1729]

2 hours ago, buckeye said:

How is this possible? 60 degrees above normal here would be like 100 degrees for highs.    Has to be a misprint.

Sydney (AFP)

Australia's vast continent is sizzling through extreme heatwave conditions this week, with temperatures reaching record highs and emergency services on high alert for bushfires.

The mercury is up to 16 degree Celsius (60.8 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than usual for this time of the year for southern Australia, with numerous towns setting new December records, the Bureau of Meteorology said Friday.

Unfortunately this F/C issue is a common mistake when non-scientists report on news. It should say “16 Celsius degrees above normal”...which is equivalent to about 29 Fahrenheit degrees above normal. 

For every 5 C change, it’s a 9 F change. 

[buckeye]

Good catch....ill blame it on reading the article before my first cup of coffee.

[mississaugasnow]

4 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Unfortunately this F/C issue is a common mistake when non-scientists report on news. It should say “16 Celsius degrees above normal”...which is equivalent to about 29 Fahrenheit degrees above normal. 

For every 5 C change, it’s a 9 F change. 

Do you guys think youll ever leave the imperial system? In Canada officially were metric but culture wise were a hybrid. When explaining your weight/height to someone here its imperial, when getting building supplies here you generally talk imperial. Road signs and weather are fully metric here in everyday conversation but people understand imperial weather measurements as well. 

Im 100% sure Canada would be as clueless about imperial as Australia, UK essentially the rest of the world if we werent as close geographically, culturally, historically to the US 

[beavis1729]

15 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Do you guys think youll ever leave the imperial system? In Canada officially were metric but culture wise were a hybrid. When explaining your weight/height to someone here its imperial, when getting building supplies here you generally talk imperial. Road signs and weather are fully metric here in everyday conversation but people understand imperial weather measurements as well. 

Im 100% sure Canada would be as clueless about imperial as Australia, UK essentially the rest of the world if we werent as close geographically, culturally, historically to the US 

Probably not. Americans tend to be a “me first” and “country first” culture, with very little emphasis put on world affairs. 

I hope the conversion will happen someday, but I am not too optimistic. 

[beavis1729]

55 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

That tends to be the case in every 'group.' It'll be necessity that makes people change and necessity is rarely about philosophical moral progress straight up, it tends to be cloaked in seemingly random variables personal to every group. Either it just hasn't been a big enough deal to Americans yet or perhaps there's still some anti british/continental streak still running through Americans. Maybe it's something altogether else. Who knows. Either way - progress for the good of the world is rarely so simple. Altruism is almost never really altruistic.

Yep. Unfortunately, I agree with you. 

[beavis1729]