weatherbo Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Unless it's 2012, I have 2 more months of snow and winter. April of last year had the biggest snow of the season with 31" falling the 14th and 15th. Can't get spring fever here too soon or you will be miserable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 15, 2019 Author Share Posted February 15, 2019 14 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: The OP FV3 will be run 4 times a day, exactly like the current OP GFS. The main change is that the OP FV3 will be run at 13km for the entire 384hr run, where the current OP GFS is 13km to 240hr and then 27km from 240-384hr. The FV3 will also have a 3km nest run at 0z/12z out to 120hrs, which will replace the NAM eventually. I don't check the other subforums, but I would bet that this issue has been a hot topic over there. I just read an article from the Washington Post and it sounds like everyone else has the same opinion as the majority here have concerning our new Euro wannabe. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/14/weather-service-prepares-launch-new-prediction-model-that-many-forecasters-dont-trust/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.7c189d2cb3c9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 2 hours ago, IWXwx said: I don't check the other subforums, but I would bet that this issue has been a hot topic over there. I just read an article from the Washington Post and it sounds like everyone else has the same opinion as the majority here have concerning our new Euro wannabe. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/14/weather-service-prepares-launch-new-prediction-model-that-many-forecasters-dont-trust/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.7c189d2cb3c9 God. "The storm missed the city". I'm sorry but that is a hot, steaming load of bullsh*t. Anyone who's ever seen a forecast model run knows that any model run can miss something at much less than five days out. that caption literally preys on the ignorance of non-weather enthusiasts. The FV3 might not be the greatest model , but it's definitely not that much worse than the other models either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 2 hours ago, Malacka11 said: God. "The storm missed the city". I'm sorry but that is a hot, steaming load of bullsh*t. Anyone who's ever seen a forecast model run knows that any model run can miss something at much less than five days out. that caption literally preys on the ignorance of non-weather enthusiasts. The FV3 might not be the greatest model run, but it's definitely not that much worse than the other runs either. It’s performed terribly. It’s a steaming garbage pile right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Is this terrible performance confined to winter weather? How about tropical (was it running during Florence and Michael)? Has it really been tested in a significant severe weather situation (given the dearth of such over the last year, doubt it)? What about just day-to-day sun, clouds, rain, hot, cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Are there ever 2 straight days of full sunshine in the winter ? Even the days that are forecast to be sunny usually end up being cloudy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 3 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Are there ever 2 straight days of full sunshine in the winter ? Even the days that are forecast to be sunny usually end up being cloudy. 000 CXUS51 KILN 160539 CF6DAY PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) STATION: DAYTON OH MONTH: FEBRUARY YEAR: 2019 LATITUDE: 39 54 N LONGITUDE: 84 12 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 21 12 17 -11 48 0 0.18 1.9 4 5.3 10 120 M M 9 18 11 70 2 39 12 26 -2 39 0 0.00 0.0 3 7.8 13 220 M M 7 128 27 170 3 60 37 49 21 16 0 0.00 0.0 1 10.2 16 210 M M 5 1 21 190 4 59 45 52 23 13 0 0.13 0.0 0 13.3 21 190 M M 6 1 28 190 5 54 37 46 17 19 0 0.03 0.0 0 8.3 14 310 M M 10 12 18 310 6 58 40 49 20 16 0 1.22 0.0 0 7.7 22 150 M M 10 123 25 150 7 61 33 47 18 18 0 1.91 0.0 0 13.0 35 270 M M 10 123 42 260 8 33 17 25 -4 40 0 T T 0 20.6 35 260 M M 7 8 40 260 9 28 12 20 -10 45 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.4 16 310 M M 5 20 320 10 35 20 28 -2 37 0 0.20 1.4 0 8.4 14 130 M M 8 1 17 150 11 39 34 37 7 28 0 0.33 0.0 1 7.2 17 90 M M 10 12 21 90 12 51 30 41 11 24 0 0.65 0.1 0 19.2 41 260 M M 10 12 49 260 13 34 24 29 -1 36 0 0.02 0.4 0 22.1 35 250 M M 7 46 270 14 52 31 42 11 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 12.4 24 190 M M 10 30 230 15 50 26 38 7 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 15.0 28 280 M M 8 18 34 280 ================================================================================ SM 674 410 429 0 4.67 3.8 176.9 M 122 ================================================================================ AV 44.9 27.3 11.8 FASTST M M 8 MAX(MPH) MISC ----> # 41 260 # 49 260 ================================================================================ NOTES: # LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H. PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2 STATION: DAYTON OH MONTH: FEBRUARY YEAR: 2019 LATITUDE: 39 54 N LONGITUDE: 84 12 W [TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA] SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16 AVERAGE MONTHLY: 36.1 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 4.67 1 = FOG OR MIST DPTR FM NORMAL: 6.7 DPTR FM NORMAL: 3.46 2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY HIGHEST: 61 ON 7 GRTST 24HR 1.91 ON 7- 7 TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS LOWEST: 12 ON 9, 2 3 = THUNDER SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL 4 = ICE PELLETS TOTAL MONTH: 3.8 INCHES 5 = HAIL GRTST 24HR 1.9 ON 1- 1 6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE GRTST DEPTH: 4 ON 1 7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM: VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS 8 = SMOKE OR HAZE [NO. OF DAYS WITH] [WEATHER - DAYS WITH] 9 = BLOWING SNOW X = TORNADO MAX 32 OR BELOW: 2 0.01 INCH OR MORE: 9 MAX 90 OR ABOVE: 0 0.10 INCH OR MORE: 7 MIN 32 OR BELOW: 9 0.50 INCH OR MORE: 3 MIN 0 OR BELOW: 0 1.00 INCH OR MORE: 2 [HDD (BASE 65) ] TOTAL THIS MO. 429 CLEAR (SCALE 0-3) 0 DPTR FM NORMAL -104 PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7) 6 TOTAL FM JUL 1 3650 CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 9 DPTR FM NORMAL -206 [CDD (BASE 65) ] TOTAL THIS MO. 0 DPTR FM NORMAL 0 [PRESSURE DATA] TOTAL FM JAN 1 0 HIGHEST SLP 30.91 ON 9 DPTR FM NORMAL 0 LOWEST SLP 29.53 ON 12 [REMARKS] Not to also mention there's yet to be a day considered as Clear (Scale 0-3) so far this month. Sunshine this month is currently at about 19%. Last February ended with only about 16% of sunshine and only 1 day that was qualified as Clear. Last February: 760 CXUS51 KILN 010544 CF6DAY PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) STATION: DAYTON OH MONTH: FEBRUARY YEAR: 2018 LATITUDE: 39 54 N LONGITUDE: 84 12 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 41 14 28 0 37 0 T T 0 14.7 24 330 M M 10 30 350 2 22 11 17 -11 48 0 T T 0 11.1 21 330 M M 4 18 26 320 3 36 15 26 -2 39 0 0.00 0.0 0 13.8 23 200 M M 10 29 180 4 38 16 27 -2 38 0 0.12 0.5 T 14.4 29 220 M M 10 16 39 210 5 24 5 15 -14 50 0 T 0.1 T 6.4 17 290 M M 7 1 20 340 6 26 20 23 -6 42 0 0.04 0.3 T 4.6 14 340 M M 10 18 15 340 7 25 20 23 -6 42 0 0.21 1.5 1 10.3 18 330 M M 10 18 22 20 8 26 6 16 -13 49 0 T T 1 8.4 15 230 M M 7 1 19 230 9 45 24 35 5 30 0 0.00 0.0 1 10.4 22 200 M M 9 26 190 10 38 26 32 2 33 0 0.02 0.0 0 9.0 21 20 M M 10 1 23 10 11 33 27 30 0 35 0 0.10 0.0 0 10.6 20 290 M M 10 16 25 280 12 34 17 26 -4 39 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.0 15 340 M M 6 18 340 13 38 17 28 -2 37 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.7 14 200 M M 6 18 220 14 57 33 45 14 20 0 0.13 0.0 0 9.6 21 230 M M 9 128 26 230 15 63 54 59 28 6 0 0.63 0.0 0 12.0 22 230 M M 9 13 27 230 16 56 29 43 12 22 0 0.35 0.0 0 12.5 23 330 M M 10 1 28 320 17 35 28 32 1 33 0 0.09 0.2 0 6.0 22 270 M M 10 1 30 290 18 44 30 37 5 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 11.9 22 300 M M 10 29 300 19 70 36 53 21 12 0 0.13 0.0 0 14.5 24 210 M M 9 1 30 200 20 75 61 68 36 0 3 T 0.0 0 18.2 32 210 M M 7 40 210 21 67 37 52 20 13 0 0.61 0.0 0 14.0 31 320 M M 9 1 40 320 22 47 35 41 8 24 0 0.48 0.0 0 12.6 32 100 M M 10 1 40 90 23 59 43 51 18 14 0 0.44 0.0 0 13.1 23 210 M M 10 18 29 200 24 50 43 47 14 18 0 1.84 0.0 0 10.2 21 110 M M 10 1 25 110 25 57 37 47 13 18 0 0.21 0.0 0 16.2 41 280 M M 9 1 51 270 26 53 30 42 8 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.8 13 260 M M 2 16 280 27 59 35 47 13 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.7 20 200 M M 4 25 190 28 59 49 54 19 11 0 0.22 0.0 0 11.2 20 210 M M 9 1 26 220 ================================================================================ SM 1277 798 779 3 5.62 2.6 306.9 M 236 ================================================================================ AV 45.6 28.5 11.0 FASTST M M 8 MAX(MPH) MISC ----> # 41 280 # 51 270 ================================================================================ NOTES: # LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H. PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2 STATION: DAYTON OH MONTH: FEBRUARY YEAR: 2018 LATITUDE: 39 54 N LONGITUDE: 84 12 W [TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA] SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16 AVERAGE MONTHLY: 37.1 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 5.62 1 = FOG OR MIST DPTR FM NORMAL: 6.1 DPTR FM NORMAL: 3.38 2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY HIGHEST: 75 ON 20 GRTST 24HR 1.84 ON 24-24 TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS LOWEST: 5 ON 5 3 = THUNDER SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL 4 = ICE PELLETS TOTAL MONTH: 2.6 INCHES 5 = HAIL GRTST 24HR 1.5 ON 7- 7 6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE GRTST DEPTH: 1 ON 9, 8 7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM: VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS 8 = SMOKE OR HAZE [NO. OF DAYS WITH] [WEATHER - DAYS WITH] 9 = BLOWING SNOW X = TORNADO MAX 32 OR BELOW: 5 0.01 INCH OR MORE: 16 MAX 90 OR ABOVE: 0 0.10 INCH OR MORE: 13 MIN 32 OR BELOW: 17 0.50 INCH OR MORE: 3 MIN 0 OR BELOW: 0 1.00 INCH OR MORE: 1 [HDD (BASE 65) ] TOTAL THIS MO. 779 CLEAR (SCALE 0-3) 1 DPTR FM NORMAL -173 PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7) 7 TOTAL FM JUL 1 4108 CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 20 DPTR FM NORMAL -167 [CDD (BASE 65) ] TOTAL THIS MO. 3 DPTR FM NORMAL 3 [PRESSURE DATA] TOTAL FM JAN 1 3 HIGHEST SLP 30.77 ON 12 DPTR FM NORMAL 3 LOWEST SLP 29.60 ON 25 [REMARKS] #FINAL-02-18# 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Seems sun has mostly only come with frigid winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 16, 2019 Share Posted February 16, 2019 Explains my bit of sunshine this morning... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 16, 2019 Author Share Posted February 16, 2019 46 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: Explains my bit of sunshine this morning... We actually had snow flurries/ice crystals reach the ground from that this morning that I reported to NWS. The source appears to be a large steel mill in the area where the clearing originated. With the sun from the partial clearing reflecting off of the ice crystals, it gave off an eerie shimmering glow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 06z FV3 drops ~20" in like 12 hours across northern Illinois about a week from now. If this replaces the normal GFS... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 17, 2019 Author Share Posted February 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, The_Doctor said: 06z FV3 drops ~20" in like 12 hours across northern Illinois about a week from now. If this replaces the normal GFS... Good to see that we are trying to make improvements on the American model 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Good to see that we are trying to make improvements on the American model That would be the kind of late winter big dog that is worth the misery. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 17, 2019 Share Posted February 17, 2019 Remarkable turnaround in the last month or so: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 The medium range is just a parade of hits for Iowa and Minnesota. I think they lose complaining privileges for a couple years now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: The medium range is just a parade of hits for Iowa and Minnesota. I think they lose complaining privileges for a couple years now. Wrong. That blizzard currently being depicted for next weekend is OURS, my friend... only no one knows it yet. /s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 21 minutes ago, mimillman said: The medium range is just a parade of hits for Iowa and Minnesota. I think they lose complaining privileges for a couple years now. Yeah I'm enjoying this while it lasts, since I'm sure we'll probably pay for it next season and beyond. We had some horrific seasons in the past 10yrs, so it's nice to have one like this to be sure. Last season southeast MI had the hot hand. This season they've had a pretty down year in comparison. Everything averages out eventually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah I'm enjoying this while it lasts, since I'm sure we'll probably pay for it next season and beyond. We had some horrific seasons in the past 10yrs, so it's nice to have one like this to be sure. Last season southeast MI had the hot hand. This season they've had a pretty down year in comparison. Everything averages out eventually. This. It's hard not to be disappointed as we almost every big event (or even the medium ones) slide past us, but then I remember that in the mere ten years I've lived here, I've experienced two of Chicago's top 5 snowstorms and one of her snowiest winters ever, and that helps put everything into perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 10 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah I'm enjoying this while it lasts, since I'm sure we'll probably pay for it next season and beyond. We had some horrific seasons in the past 10yrs, so it's nice to have one like this to be sure. Last season southeast MI had the hot hand. This season they've had a pretty down year in comparison. Everything averages out eventually. Its one of the most frustrating winters in a while here. The end result still isnt disaster or anywhere near futility, but between the northern suburbs getting several surprise heavy bands that evaded us south of Detroit, and the heavy snows to the west and north (the upper peninsula is having an epic snowpack the last 2 months), its frustration for sure. As i said in another thread...only 2 of the previous 11 seasons had below average snowfall here, we were due. Doesnt mean im not going to complain lol. And likewise...just because Iowa and Minnesota are getting hit over and over and over again, considering theyve had several subpar snow seasons the last decade, i will not hold this epic stretch for them as a "you cant complain" card when future misses hit there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 MLI -- the CAR of the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Thought this was interesting...https://www.latimes.com/science/la-sci-sn-jet-stream-flight-20190219-story.htmlThe jet stream, the high-altitude air current along which storms travel, is furious. The river of air was clocked at more than 230 mph over Long Island on Monday. That measure comes from the 250-millibar pressure level, meaning it was at a height above 75% of the atmosphere's mass. It sets the record for the fastest 250-millibar wind speed ever recorded over New York and, probably, the country.Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 That time of the year again, when you realize the best of winter is behind you. All in all, could have been a much worse outcome given the way it was going in December and early January. Maybe we'll weasel our way up to 50" for the season when we wrap in April. It goes to show what a dreadful decade it's been in Toronto for snow. A 50" season is considered a triumph. That used to just be normal. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 The tread marks of SLPs over LOT's head is growing tiresome. 12Z suite shows no let up with this rain, zr pattern. Cold rain till mid March seems likely.Amended based on longer range models make that cold and dry with suppression of systems to start March 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 2 hours ago, Cary67 said: The tread marks of SLPs over LOT's head is growing tiresome. 12Z suite shows no let up with this rain, zr pattern. Cold rain till mid March seems likely Hopefully we continue with cold rain so we can immediately start spring in mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 14 minutes ago, IllinoisWedges said: Hopefully we continue with cold rain so we can immediately start spring in mid March. It might get worse....suppressed storm track...and cold...Ugh... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Around 6" of snow today, monthly total well over 70", snow up to my chest (I'm 6.2')... possibility of 1.5-2' of snow this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 17 minutes ago, weatherbo said: Around 6" of snow today, monthly total well over 70", snow up to my chest (I'm 6.2')... possibility of 1.5-2' of snow this weekend. You are easily the snowiest place in the upper peninsula I would imagine. You should be an observer For the MQT NWS. I'm very proud of my continuous observational record, though I must say I honestly do not know how you would record snow depth. That's usually something that you have to take several averages of and your snow so ridiculously deep all you can do is put out a stake in your best guess of a location with minimal drifting or blowing because you sure as heck can't walk around in it every day to take several measurements if needed lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 On 2/20/2019 at 9:59 PM, weatherbo said: Around 6" of snow today, monthly total well over 70", snow up to my chest (I'm 6.2')... possibility of 1.5-2' of snow this weekend. Man, I really hope there is no early season heavy rain event up there. It is going to be a disaster. Can you still see your house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: You are easily the snowiest place in the upper peninsula I would imagine. You should be an observer For the MQT NWS. I'm very proud of my continuous observational record, though I must say I honestly do not know how you would record snow depth. That's usually something that you have to take several averages of and your snow so ridiculously deep all you can do is put out a stake in your best guess of a location with minimal drifting or blowing because you sure as heck can't walk around in it every day to take several measurements if needed lol I'm pretty sure there's places in more remote areas that receive more snow than me, it just isn't measured by anyone... just west of here, and places in the Keweenaw see as much, if not more on a yearly basis. What makes this place special, is the fact that I sit high on a north facing ridge, with upslope in all but a few directions... it's really a unique spot. The six years I have been here, tho, this is the deepest depth I have seen, and the most snow at the current to-date period. I can see hitting 300" possibly this year. And you're right, the snow is pretty much impossible to walk through, and exhausting to even snowshoe at this depth. It's almost claustrophobic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 4 minutes ago, Stebo said: Man, I really hope there is no early season heavy rain event up there. It is going to be a disaster. Can you still see your house? According to MQT, their snow pack there has a water equiv of 9", I probably have 10". Could spell another disaster on the Dead River just south of me like 2003, I think it was. Heavy rain and rapid snow melt. And I keep thinking, there's still 6 weeks left of good snow climo. Snow is up past 50% of most windows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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