Chicago Storm Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Can't wait for the FV to replace the GFS and NAM. Gonna be fun times. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: Can't wait for the FV to replace the GFS and NAM. Gonna be fun times. DGEX's 1st cousin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 My grade for this winter is slowly dropping from a B-. It's only getting a B because I'm grading on the curve of the last 5 or 6 years lol. We've had a couple nice events of 3-5 and one over 8 inches and a decent over performing ice event but it's this pesky cold -snow - torch - melt - rain back to cold sequence that's really getting old. Haven't been able to hold onto a snow pack at all (yeah my climo isn't the best for that but at least give me 14 days!). If I can go out with at least one more warning criteria snow the curve may just get it to an A, but it's gonna have to be a good one. Really not looking forward to a potential flooding spring, there's a very saturated water table around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Can't wait for the FV to replace the GFS and NAM. Gonna be fun times. Did not know the FV was replacing the NAM....thought it was just GFS. Is the short term resolution supposed to be that much better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 13, 2019 Author Share Posted February 13, 2019 3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Can't wait for the FV to replace the GFS and NAM. Gonna be fun times. With all of the time and effort put into the model to keep up with the Joneses, its test run has been a sad exhibition. Long live The King. And for me, it's too early to grade the winter yet, as I consider March 15th the drop dead date at this latitude, so it has 4 more weeks to redeem itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Still a ways to go this winter but there's no way this won't be an A+. That's saying something considering the 5 week stretch in Dec to early Jan with 0.3" of snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 26 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Still a ways to go this winter but there's no way this won't be an A+. That's saying something considering the 5 week stretch in Dec to early Jan with 0.3" of snow. You guys have done really well. I’m happy you guys were able to cash in. You waited patiently without blowing up the banter/complaint thread lol. I’m thankful for my 6” storm that lasted 2 weeks on the ground. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 49 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Still a ways to go this winter but there's no way this won't be an A+. That's saying something considering the 5 week stretch in Dec to early Jan with 0.3" of snow. Guessing you didn't notice you were in the COMPLAINT THREAD 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Guessing you didn't notice you were in the COMPLAINT THREAD Pardon the intrusion. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 30 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Pardon the intrusion. Definitely so your way, less so south and east. I’m not concerned. The two year stretch of DVN jackpot city will end soon enough with a classic winter of OV cutters 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 I've now have past the season average snowfall of 42''. Already around 2' this month. I'm curious of what spring flooding predictions will be like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 The number of 33 and rain events I had this past week was incredibly disappointing. I seriously would have preferred a crippling ice storm over that. Now I will say that the thunderstorm that rolled through here very early on the 6th was pretty interesting as I had never seen such heavy precip at only 33 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Went back and reviewed my forecasts since I apparently low-balled everything this winter. Nov 9th storm- Received 1.0". Forecast 1", with perhaps 2" under the better bands on Nov 8th. Yep, I low-balled that one. Nov 25th storm- Received 12.8". Forecast 10-12" Nov 24th, then upped to 12-14" Nov 25. Yep, I really low-balled that one. Jan 18-19th storm- Received 4.8". Forecast 3-5" Jan 17th. Another low-baller. Jan 27-28 storm- Received 3.3". Forecast 3-5" on Jan 26th. Really low-balled that one. Feb 11-12 storm- Received 0.8". Forecast 0.5-1.5". Low-ball. I did an absolute horrible job with the Jan 22-23 storm though. That one steadily shifted southeast in the final 48hrs and we went from what was looking like a mostly rain event, to a nice 6" event. I was def too pessimistic to the end on that one. Another one that haunts me some is the Jan 18-19th event, that one had a sharp cutoff modeled just north of us for days. We've seen some pretty sharp northern cutoffs the past few years so I was a bit pessimistic with that forecast. That one did a pretty nice shift north in the final 24hrs that put the QCA into a much wetter system than what was shown for the days before. In the end the northern cutoff was a lot less sharp as well, and areas up along the highway corridor picked up some snow. We've had a lot of things shift in our favor in the final 24-48hrs this season, which can definitely make a forecaster look like an ***hole. I admit I can be a bit pessimistic at times, probably in some way trying not to jinx the storm lol, but to say I low-ball everything is simply not accurate. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 43 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Went back and reviewed my forecasts since I apparently low-balled everything this winter. Nov 9th storm- Received 1.0". Forecast 1", with perhaps 2" under the better bands on Nov 8th. Yep, I low-balled that one. Nov 25th storm- Received 12.8". Forecast 10-12" Nov 24th, then upped to 12-14" Nov 25. Yep, I really low-balled that one. Jan 18-19th storm- Received 4.8". Forecast 3-5" Jan 17th. Another low-baller. Jan 27-28 storm- Received 3.3". Forecast 3-5" on Jan 26th. Really low-balled that one. Feb 11-12 storm- Received 0.8". Forecast 0.5-1.5". Low-ball. I did an absolute horrible job with the Jan 22-23 storm though. That one steadily shifted southeast in the final 48hrs and we went from what was looking like a mostly rain event, to a nice 6" event. I was def too pessimistic to the end on that one. Another one that haunts me some is the Jan 18-19th event, that one had a sharp cutoff modeled just north of us for days. We've seen some pretty sharp northern cutoffs the past few years so I was a bit pessimistic with that forecast. That one did a pretty nice shift north in the final 24hrs that put the QCA into a much wetter system than what was shown for the days before. In the end the northern cutoff was a lot less sharp as well, and areas up along the highway corridor picked up some snow. We've had a lot of things shift in our favor in the final 24-48hrs this season, which can definitely make a forecaster look like an ***hole. I admit I can be a bit pessimistic at times, probably in some way trying not to jinx the storm lol, but to say I low-ball everything is simply not accurate. I tend to view your calls as conservative, not necessarily “pessimistic”. Many times, the shitload of factors that have to align to maximize ANY setup aren’t all there. So conservative is often accurate. It’s always easier to dial up expectations than to dial them back down. And it’s easy to look like a “low baller” when your back yard jackpots ALL THE TIME this season. As much as it pains me to say, I have checked about every box for this winter and am ready for spring. Had thundersnow, thunder sleet, an incredible snowpack, and a bitchin’ ice storm. But there are fish to catch and golf to play. Let’s Morch it. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 lookin like another nice rain storm next week as we warm right up again into the 40s here in NEO what a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 14 hours ago, King James said: One of the worst winters I can remember. Lots of rain, fog, and ice. I would categorize most of the weather this winter here in east central IL as an inconvenience. Lol, you have high expectations. I’ll give you December was a clunker, but it was for everyone. January was really good here. Mostly nickels and dimes, but we had a solid 3 week stretch of pretty good wintry appeal. But if a big dog is what you’re chasing, then I guess I understand. Alas, we’re in range of normal season snowfall. Nowhere near the disaster of past true sh*tty winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyweather Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Let’s Morch it. F* it, I’m in the ice sleet rain trifecta has destroyed the slopes everywhere south of 45 north in the Midwest, and I don’t have enough vacation time to chase the killer pow they’ve been getting out west. been decent fat bike riding conditions but if I can’t ski on saturdays I’m ready to switch back to the singletrack on my mountain bike 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 I have to admit that the ice-covered trees/sunny blue sky combination was absolutely spectacular. My winter went from B to B+ just because of this. It looked like something out of a sci-fi video game. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 FV operational launch set for March 20th, pending a successful 30 day test period.Cross your fingers the test fails.. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 18 hours ago, cyclone77 said: We've had a lot of things shift in our favor in the final 24-48hrs this season, which can definitely make a forecaster look like an ***hole. I admit I can be a bit pessimistic at times, probably in some way trying not to jinx the storm lol, but to say I low-ball everything is simply not accurate. Other than the January 9-12 system, I can't recall any other storms trending northwest in the final 24-48 hours. It's been odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 19 hours ago, cyclone77 said: We've had a lot of things shift in our favor in the final 24-48hrs this season, which can definitely make a forecaster look like an ***hole. I admit I can be a bit pessimistic at times, probably in some way trying not to jinx the storm lol, but to say I low-ball everything is simply not accurate. All you needed to do was start event threads, we'd all have a Bo snow pack by now lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 With it being mid February, I have made the transition to "go big or go home" mode. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: With it being mid February, I have made the transition to "go big or go home" mode. Yep, if it is < 6", pass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 25 minutes ago, Hoosier said: With it being mid February, I have made the transition to "go big or go home" mode. Nah. It's still the heart of winter. "Go big or go home" season is March. "Go home" season is April. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 14, 2019 Share Posted February 14, 2019 22 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: FV operational launch set for March 20th, pending a successful 30 day test period. Cross your fingers the test fails. . So this is replacing the current GFS? If so, wonder what sort of qualitative analysis has been done. Seems to fail the eye test so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 50 minutes ago, Cary67 said: So this is replacing the current GFS? If so, wonder what sort of qualitative analysis has been done. Seems to fail the eye test so to speak. Correct. The FV3 will become OP and replace the current GFS on that March 20th date, as long as it passes the upcoming 30 day final testing period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: With it being mid February, I have made the transition to "go big or go home" mode. Feb. 1st is always that point for me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 7:52 PM, Indystorm said: Did not know the FV was replacing the NAM....thought it was just GFS. Is the short term resolution supposed to be that much better? The OP FV3 will be run 4 times a day, exactly like the current OP GFS. The main change is that the OP FV3 will be run at 13km for the entire 384hr run, where the current OP GFS is 13km to 240hr and then 27km from 240-384hr. The FV3 will also have a 3km nest run at 0z/12z out to 120hrs, which will replace the NAM eventually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: Nah. It's still the heart of winter. "Go big or go home" season is March. "Go home" season is April. I take snow until it won't snow anymore. Every year around this time we see some start to think spring or big storms only, but not me. Spring is by a mile my least favorite season, I absolutely dread it. Give me snow till the end of April then let it be summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Yeah after today's weather I'm in let's get spring started mode. 43 did feel really nice today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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