Fall/Winter 2018-19 Complaint/Banter Thread

[beavis1729]

Not sure what everyone is so excited about...but the next 2 weeks look like crap.  Rain and warm this weekend, then chilly but not a lot of precip, then a potential warm-up around Day 10-12.  Not saying all of this is gospel...but it looks pretty bad based on current modeling and teleconnections.

People's expectations are so low for Winter, it drives me crazy.  It is not good to have a rain event this weekend.  Doesn't matter if the pattern is "active"; rain is not acceptable this time of year.  All of the beauty of last weekend's snowfall will be wiped away.

And I understand my climo...that is not the issue.  As I have said repeatedly, a climo winter here would receive a grade of D- at best.  As an example: if ORD received zero flakes of snow this December, it would still be around normal snowfall for the season-to-date.  It doesn't mean we should be happy about the early snowfall this season; it just means our climo is horrible.

It's laughable that our normal high is around 40 at the beginning of December.  That is not winter.

And on and on and on. Blah blah blah.

Someone should create a "winter index", based on the following metric:  Average # of days per year with a high temp of 32F or lower AND at least 2" of snow cover.  In my mind, that constitutes a wintry day.  At ORD, the "Winter index" is probably about 25 (?).  And that could be optimistic.  Either way, it means that fewer than 1/3 of the days in Winter (DJF) are actually wintry.  That says it all...

I don't intend to argue or bicker with anyone on this...it's a complaint thread, and I'm venting.  

[Baum]

^
Your simply living in the wrong climate for the type of weather your looking for. Try Marquette, Michigan.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[SchaumburgStormer]

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Not sure what everyone is so excited about...but the next 2 weeks look like crap.  Rain and warm this weekend, then chilly but not a lot of precip, then a potential warm-up around Day 10-12.  Not saying all of this is gospel...but it looks pretty bad based on current modeling and teleconnections.

People's expectations are so low for Winter, it drives me crazy.  It is not good to have a rain event this weekend.  Doesn't matter if the pattern is "active"; rain is not acceptable this time of year.  All of the beauty of last weekend's snowfall will be wiped away.

And I understand my climo...that is not the issue.  As I have said repeatedly, a climo winter here would receive a grade of D- at best.  As an example: if ORD received zero flakes of snow this December, it would still be around normal snowfall for the season-to-date.  It doesn't mean we should be happy about the early snowfall this season; it just means our climo is horrible.

It's laughable that our normal high is around 40 at the beginning of December.  That is not winter.

And on and on and on. Blah blah blah.

Someone should create a "winter index", based on the following metric:  Average # of days per year with a high temp of 32F or lower AND at least 2" of snow cover.  In my mind, that constitutes a wintry day.  At ORD, the "Winter index" is probably about 25 (?).  And that could be optimistic.  Either way, it means that fewer than 1/3 of the days in Winter (DJF) are actually wintry.  That says it all...

I don't intend to argue or bicker with anyone on this...it's a complaint thread, and I'm venting.  

 

27 minutes ago, Baum said:

^
Your simply living in the wrong climate for the type of weather your looking for. Try Marquette, Michigan.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
 

Or Northern Siberia. 

This pattern is active. To say otherwise is disingenuous at best. Simply because it isn't below normal cold and active, or your back yard isn't getting your ideal weather for LATE FALL, does not mean the pattern is not active. 

 

[beavis1729]

27 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

 

Or Northern Siberia. 

This pattern is active. To say otherwise is disingenuous at best. Simply because it isn't below normal cold and active, or your back yard isn't getting your ideal weather for LATE FALL, does not mean the pattern is not active. 

 

I didn't say the pattern wasn't active. I just said that active isn't always a good thing, especially when active means rain.

Either way, I don't expect anyone to empathize or agree with me. I was just venting and was clear about that in my post.  Not a big deal.   

[SchaumburgStormer]

2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

I didn't say the pattern wasn't active. I just said that active isn't always a good thing, especially when active means rain.

Either way, I don't expect anyone to empathize or agree with me. I was just venting and was clear about that in my post.  Not a big deal.   

My mistake, I misread your statement and thought the implication was that the pattern wasn't active. 

[zinski1990]

4 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Not sure what everyone is so excited about...but the next 2 weeks look like crap.  Rain and warm this weekend, then chilly but not a lot of precip, then a potential warm-up around Day 10-12.  Not saying all of this is gospel...but it looks pretty bad based on current modeling and teleconnections.

People's expectations are so low for Winter, it drives me crazy.  It is not good to have a rain event this weekend.  Doesn't matter if the pattern is "active"; rain is not acceptable this time of year.  All of the beauty of last weekend's snowfall will be wiped away.

And I understand my climo...that is not the issue.  As I have said repeatedly, a climo winter here would receive a grade of D- at best.  As an example: if ORD received zero flakes of snow this December, it would still be around normal snowfall for the season-to-date.  It doesn't mean we should be happy about the early snowfall this season; it just means our climo is horrible.

It's laughable that our normal high is around 40 at the beginning of December.  That is not winter.

And on and on and on. Blah blah blah.

Someone should create a "winter index", based on the following metric:  Average # of days per year with a high temp of 32F or lower AND at least 2" of snow cover.  In my mind, that constitutes a wintry day.  At ORD, the "Winter index" is probably about 25 (?).  And that could be optimistic.  Either way, it means that fewer than 1/3 of the days in Winter (DJF) are actually wintry.  That says it all...

I don't intend to argue or bicker with anyone on this...it's a complaint thread, and I'm venting.  

I know the feeling. I hate cold and nothing then warm up and rain rinse repeat. Funny thing is during the warm up and rain events places in the northern sub get the good snow over and over again. Miss good winters in Indianapolis 

[slow poke]

Not sure if it was because Thanksgiving was kinda early this year or all the snow and cold we've had already but it seems like we should be tracking snow storms instead of the rain we're going to get this weekend here in MI. The cold season got a early start but at this point us out door winter enthusiast in lower MI have nothing to show for it. Snowmobile trails open this Sat but there won't be any snow for them to open. I'm not a fan of Nov cold and snow, we almost always seem to pay for it in Dec with the snow we did get melting and rain instead of snow storms. I know it's not even Dec yet and things can change in a hurry so we'll see how the next couple weeks go.

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Not sure what everyone is so excited about...but the next 2 weeks look like crap.  Rain and warm this weekend, then chilly but not a lot of precip, then a potential warm-up around Day 10-12.  Not saying all of this is gospel...but it looks pretty bad based on current modeling and teleconnections.

People's expectations are so low for Winter, it drives me crazy.  It is not good to have a rain event this weekend.  Doesn't matter if the pattern is "active"; rain is not acceptable this time of year.  All of the beauty of last weekend's snowfall will be wiped away.

And I understand my climo...that is not the issue.  As I have said repeatedly, a climo winter here would receive a grade of D- at best.  As an example: if ORD received zero flakes of snow this December, it would still be around normal snowfall for the season-to-date.  It doesn't mean we should be happy about the early snowfall this season; it just means our climo is horrible.

It's laughable that our normal high is around 40 at the beginning of December.  That is not winter.

And on and on and on. Blah blah blah.

Someone should create a "winter index", based on the following metric:  Average # of days per year with a high temp of 32F or lower AND at least 2" of snow cover.  In my mind, that constitutes a wintry day.  At ORD, the "Winter index" is probably about 25 (?).  And that could be optimistic.  Either way, it means that fewer than 1/3 of the days in Winter (DJF) are actually wintry.  That says it all...

I don't intend to argue or bicker with anyone on this...it's a complaint thread, and I'm venting.  

 I notice you bring this up every year.  And I am right there with you in terms of what I like. I don't care so much how big an individual storm is, I like solid Winter. Cold, Gray, snow on the ground-that is what I like. Kind of odd to be complaining when you're one of the few that has gotten a good snowstorm this year. We've gotten plenty of days with snow here but nothing like the storm you saw. It has been wintry type weather most of November.  It's November 29th, and Detroit has seen snow fall at some point on 15 days already this season. 15 days before December.  I feel almost guilty for complaining that we have not had a good storm and then I see this haha. I know this is the complaint thread and im not giving you a hard time or anything, just saying. The 1st official day of Winter is December 21st.  Chicago will never be Siberia but I'm sure plenty more fun lies ahead.

[Stebo]

10 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Not sure what everyone is so excited about...but the next 2 weeks look like crap.  Rain and warm this weekend, then chilly but not a lot of precip, then a potential warm-up around Day 10-12.  Not saying all of this is gospel...but it looks pretty bad based on current modeling and teleconnections.

People's expectations are so low for Winter, it drives me crazy.  It is not good to have a rain event this weekend.  Doesn't matter if the pattern is "active"; rain is not acceptable this time of year.  All of the beauty of last weekend's snowfall will be wiped away.

And I understand my climo...that is not the issue.  As I have said repeatedly, a climo winter here would receive a grade of D- at best.  As an example: if ORD received zero flakes of snow this December, it would still be around normal snowfall for the season-to-date.  It doesn't mean we should be happy about the early snowfall this season; it just means our climo is horrible.

It's laughable that our normal high is around 40 at the beginning of December.  That is not winter.

And on and on and on. Blah blah blah.

Someone should create a "winter index", based on the following metric:  Average # of days per year with a high temp of 32F or lower AND at least 2" of snow cover.  In my mind, that constitutes a wintry day.  At ORD, the "Winter index" is probably about 25 (?).  And that could be optimistic.  Either way, it means that fewer than 1/3 of the days in Winter (DJF) are actually wintry.  That says it all...

I don't intend to argue or bicker with anyone on this...it's a complaint thread, and I'm venting.  

Yellowknife is a good location for you.

[Jonbo]

This would make up for the last storm literally going around Des Moines. I highly doubt this'll happen but a man can hope! and then be crushed again

[buckeye]

19 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

And I understand my climo...that is not the issue. 

ummm yea, it pretty much is the issue.

I wish my car performed like a lamborghini....I understand it's a honda,  but that's not the issue. 

[Jonger]

14 hours ago, slow poke said:

Not sure if it was because Thanksgiving was kinda early this year or all the snow and cold we've had already but it seems like we should be tracking snow storms instead of the rain we're going to get this weekend here in MI. The cold season got a early start but at this point us out door winter enthusiast in lower MI have nothing to show for it. Snowmobile trails open this Sat but there won't be any snow for them to open. I'm not a fan of Nov cold and snow, we almost always seem to pay for it in Dec with the snow we did get melting and rain instead of snow storms. I know it's not even Dec yet and things can change in a hurry so we'll see how the next couple weeks go.

Looks like mid month. Not the greatest start on the season. Wasted that pattern on November and we really didn't see any major LES outbreaks.

[ConvectiveIA]

4 hours ago, Jonbo said:

This would make up for the last storm literally going around Des Moines. I highly doubt this'll happen but a man can hope! and then be crushed again

Yesss. And the NAM has been consistent at advertising this but is reasonably being ignored by forecasters. I’m still hoping for it or some kind of last minute deformation band at the tail end 

[ConvectiveIA]

It was supposed to be rain here but it just changed to snow just before temporarily ending.

[pondo1000]

Looks like mid-Atlantic COULD get some significant snow next week. Again, before central Ohio. This area sucks. I miss the winters back east north of Philadelphia. 

[Jonger]

On 11/29/2018 at 12:50 PM, SchaumburgStormer said:

 

Or Northern Siberia. 

This pattern is active. To say otherwise is disingenuous at best. Simply because it isn't below normal cold and active, or your back yard isn't getting your ideal weather for LATE FALL, does not mean the pattern is not active. 

 

Active doesn't necessarily mean good. If you're on the SE quadrant of every storm, it's still active, but crap weather.

[hlcater]

Idk about you, but the SE quad yesterday was far better than the cold sector.

[michsnowfreak]

13 hours ago, pondo1000 said:

Looks like mid-Atlantic COULD get some significant snow next week. Again, before central Ohio. This area sucks. I miss the winters back east north of Philadelphia. 

 The way the models are I would not count on anything a week away anywhere lol. Most of the mid Atlantic has terrible snow climo , though north of Philadelphia might not be as bad.

[Jackstraw]

From Greenville/Spartenburg AFD today.  They seem to be biting hard on it, even referencing the GFS>AVN protoype.  Say it aint so Joe, don't think I can handle the SE getting a big dog before my grass even gets covered again this year.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday: Confidence is increasing on a potential major
winter storm event next weekend. The 12z global models and ensembles
all agree on the general set up. A split flow regime across the
CONUS to start the medium range, with progressing from the Northern
Plains to New England, while a southern stream trough enters
southern California. Confluent flow between the two troughs will
allow a fairly strong area of high pressure to drop south into the
Midwest Thursday into Friday. Below normal temps are expected, with
a reinforcing dry cold front pushing thru the area. By Friday
evening, the high will migrate to the Ohio Valley and southern Great
Lakes (still around 1038 mb). The high will be elongated east-
west, with the eastern edge of the air mass spilling into the
Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, the California trough will eject to the
Southern Plains and induce a sfc low along a baroclinic zone
along the TX/LA coast. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in good
agreement on isent lift and frontogenesis spreading moisture and
QPF north and east of the low into the cold air across the
Southeast states. This should diabatically enhance classic cold
air damming across the Carolinas, bringing in even colder air.
Using the p-type nomograms with a blend of GFS/ECWMF, it still
looks like a mixed-bag of p-types, at least on the onset. The
high terrain looks to be cold enough to be pretty much all snow.
However, as the low reaches the GA/FL coasts in Miller-A
fashion, the p-type looks to become more of a ra/sn event, with
the position of the ra/sn line still in question. The 12z ECMWF
and the FV3-GFS have come in colder and suggest that even the
Upstate and Charlotte areas may see a lot of the QPF as sleet
and snow. Storm total QPF of 1-2" certainly suggests that
whoever gets wintry precip will see warning criteria accums.
There is still plenty of time for the details to change. So for
the time being, readers keep abreast of the latest information
on the winter storm potential next weekend.

[beavis1729]

On 11/30/2018 at 6:44 AM, buckeye said:

ummm yea, it pretty much is the issue.

I wish my car performed like a lamborghini....I understand it's a honda,  but that's not the issue. 

I think you’re misunderstanding my point and tone, which can definitely happen over social media. 

Here’s an example. If you’re a Cubs fan, you rooted for them to win the World Series every year since 1908, despite the long odds. And you get frustrated when they come up short, because you love the team. 

I root and hope for winter to be winter, despite our ridiculously horrible climo. If I expected every year to be like climo, there would be no point in being excited about winter, or talking about it on these forums. So, I get frustrated that people on this forum don’t have the passion for winter that I do. That’s what my post from a few days ago was getting at. 

I guess the flip side is the following: people can’t have it both ways. You can’t say that we have a wintry climate in Chicago and hear the media and general public whine and complain about it...and then at the same time, the data shows that only about 1 in 4 DJF days are truly wintry in Chicago. Both of these things can’t be true. 

At the end of the day, it’s annoying and maddening that no one understands or cares about the plight of winter weather lovers in our sub forum, at least for those south of about 43N. I expect that attitude from the general public, but hope that this board would be more understanding and on the same page. 

Not a big deal, but that’s the situation. I know, first world problems. But that’s what happens when you’re passionate about something. It’s the definition of a weenie, right? I have a met degree too, so I’m afflicted with a passion for both winter and the science behind it. And the reality of my job doesn’t allow me to move north right now, as I am sure is the case for many people. 

[Hoosier]

Beavis... not trying to be snarky, but you really should consider moving north when you can.  

Personally I feel fortunate to live in an area that gets to experience such variety, even though it's not really favorable for the most extreme weather (i.e. no -50 in winter or 110+ in summer, except maybe during the Dust Bowl lol).  

[Snowless in Carrollton]

20 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Beavis... not trying to be snarky, but you really should consider moving north when you can.  

Personally I feel fortunate to live in an area that gets to experience such variety, even though it's not really favorable for the most extreme weather (i.e. no -50 in winter or 110+ in summer, except maybe during the Dust Bowl lol).  

Does anyone really want -50 or 110 degree weather?

[Stebo]

31 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Beavis... not trying to be snarky, but you really should consider moving north when you can.  

Personally I feel fortunate to live in an area that gets to experience such variety, even though it's not really favorable for the most extreme weather (i.e. no -50 in winter or 110+ in summer, except maybe during the Dust Bowl lol).  

I am being snarky when I say Yellowknife has some openings

[Hoosier]

25 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Does anyone really want -50 or 110 degree weather?

I'd love it.  Big fan of extremes.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

15 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'd love it.  Big fan of extremes.

Its ok as long as you dont have to work outside in it !

[Malacka11]

I know I'm really not one to talk with my all-things-considered good start to the season, but the only thing I hope for is that it doesn't rain for Christmas. Don't care if it isn't white outside (I'd appreciate it, but let's be real here) but as long as it doesn't pour all day or some garbage, I'm happy. Any other day is fine, just not on Christmas. 

[IWXwx]

11 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

I guess the flip side is the following: people can’t have it both ways. You can’t say that we have a wintry climate in Chicago and hear the media and general public whine and complain about it...and then at the same time, the data shows that only about 1 in 4 DJF days are truly wintry in Chicago. Both of these things can’t be true. 

That's the crux of the problem. Your definition of winter differs from most of the general public's, including me. Our climo features weeks of highs in the thirties and lows in the twenties and teens which most would consider winter weather whether or not that includes snow. People who aren't weenies consider snow and cold a nuisance to their day-to-day lives.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

It would be something if the south once again got a big early December snow. Last year in early December, parts of GA got a foot ! Does this part of the country ever get a decent snow ? I am still waiting. Might have to move south to see a good snow again. Good grief the weather here is so boring. Cloudy and cold day after day but not much to show for it !

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Its crazy how much more active the New England forum is compared to this one. Maybe more people live in New England than the Midwest? Or maybe Midwesterners are just boring ? 

[Hoosier]

37 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

It would be something if the south once again got a big early December snow. Last year in early December, parts of GA got a foot ! Does this part of the country ever get a decent snow ? I am still waiting. Might have to move south to see a good snow again. Good grief the weather here is so boring. Cloudy and cold day after day but not much to show for it !

Yes but not often.