Fall/Winter 2018-19 Complaint/Banter Thread

[Stebo]

17 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I like TT for the 500maps.    WxBell 500maps not so much

Yeah WB vortex maps are too noisy a d hard to read.

[cyclone77]

Twisterdata hasn't evolved at all for almost 10 years but I still go there to look at the RAP for some reason.  They still don't have the HRRR, 3km NAM, etc.  I still like their graphics though, and there's probably a bit of nostalgia there as well lol.

[buckeye]

I thought I read the euro was going to have an 06z and18z run.  If so when does that happen?

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I thought I read the euro was going to have an 06z and18z run.  If so when does that happen?

It already exists but most sites don't carry it.  weathermodels.com does

[CheeselandSkies]

I used to use Twisterdata, until I found Pivotal Weather and all other model sites went out the window...although still occasionally visit COD for the CFS.

On topic: For MBY, this November has featured too much sharp cold too early, not enough snow (although more than usual for November, the pavement and grass have never really been completely covered), not enough severe, and too much blasted Christmas hype before Thanksgiving (heck it was happening before Halloween).

[Chinook]

Just as a reminder,  http://weather.us    still has free ECMWF maps, including QPF/snow-water QPF. (no snow ratio)  You can zoom in on every US state. It also has the UKMET (shown as Global Britain Standard) with fairly basic information. 

[hawkeye_wx]

We've had two snow events already, totaling 3.2".  However, both occurred very late at night/early morning, so I've still barely seen any snow actually fall.

[Hoosier]

Have spent the last couple nights reading through several of the GHD 2011 threads.  Really took me back to that time.

One request.  Thundersnow posted the crazy CLTV map that showed widespread amounts over 30" around Chicagoland, but it's been deleted.  If anyone still has that map, could you post it here?  

[Paulie21]

36 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Have spent the last couple nights reading through several of the GHD 2011 threads.  Really took me back to that time.

One request.  Thundersnow posted the crazy CLTV map that showed widespread amounts over 30" around Chicagoland, but it's been deleted.  If anyone still has that map, could you post it here?  

[Hoosier]

Awesome.  Thanks.  I almost can't believe they showed a graphic like that.

That has gotta be one of the most ridiculous maps I've ever seen in this region.  A 100+ mile wide band of over 30" seems impossible to achieve.  I do think the very high winds hurt ratios to some extent, but not to that degree.  

[CoalCityWxMan]

1 hour ago, Paulie21 said:

Oh the things I’d do to have this happen 

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

Oh the things I’d do to have this happen 

I'd go 5 years without seeing a flake of snow and have it be 70 each year on Christmas... no second thoughts.

I think that's the point where it goes from being cool to being kinda scary.  Imagine if that actually happened.  You probably would've had drifts over 25 feet out in the country.

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

I'd go 5 years without seeing a flake of snow and have it be 70 each year on Christmas... no second thoughts.

I think that's the point where it goes from being cool to being kinda scary.  Imagine if that actually happened.  You probably would've had drifts over 25 feet out in the country.

Remember too that was with a model output of around 2.5" QPF so imagine if it rained after, you'd have an insane amount of roof/building collapses.

[Chinook]

This possible snow scenario in IA reminds me of when I drove across that area go to my parents in Ohio for Christmas in 2012. Des Moines had a 12" snowstorm before I went through. I saw dozens of tire tracks in the snow and several abandoned cars and trucks off the road. Based on this, my guess is that the most likely type of off-the-road accident in slippery conditions is when you fishtail and your car lands backwards (rotated about 180 degrees or 200 degrees) as you slide off the side or into the median grass.

[IWXwx]

It's really fun to be tracking a major storm system in November and I'm happy for the weenies to my north and west that are about to get blasted, but it sure comes at a cost for those of us in Indiana and Ohio who will only get to experience mood flakes, blustery winds, and temps that be below normal even for mid January standards this week. Obviously really early and I'm hopeful that our turn will come, but in the meantime cold and dry sucks.

[AppsRunner]

2 hours ago, IWXwx said:

It's really fun to be tracking a major storm system in November and I'm happy for the weenies to my north and west that are about to get blasted, but it sure comes at a cost for those of us in Indiana and Ohio who will only get to experience mood flakes, blustery winds, and temps that be below normal even for mid January standards this week. Obviously really early and I'm hopeful that our turn will come, but in the meantime cold and dry sucks.

Better than having 10 consecutive Euro runs give you a 6-12" only to have the storm slide so far south that you end up with nothing. But couldn't agree more, after spending four years in a lake effect snowbelt this winter is off to a pretty frustrating start. 

[Chicago WX]

3 hours ago, IWXwx said:

It's really fun to be tracking a major storm system in November and I'm happy for the weenies to my north and west that are about to get blasted, but it sure comes at a cost for those of us in Indiana and Ohio who will only get to experience mood flakes, blustery winds, and temps that be below normal even for mid January standards this week. Obviously really early and I'm hopeful that our turn will come, but in the meantime cold and dry sucks.

Or you could be me, and miss warning amounts by 15-30 miles. For "fun", the 15z HRRR has double digit totals in the NW corner of Kankakee county...and 0.3" IMBY. No idea if that'll play out as modeled...but that's about as brutal of a miss as there can be. Regardless, expecting quite the cold soaker here with maybe a car topper at the very end. This storm has the potential to replace 11/30-12/1/2006 as my most hated ever. Oh well I guess. 

[Hoosier]

58 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

Or you could be me, and miss warning amounts by 15-30 miles. For "fun", the 15z HRRR has double digit totals in the NW corner of Kankakee county...and 0.3" IMBY. No idea if that'll play out as modeled...but that's about as brutal of a miss as there can be. Regardless, expecting quite the cold soaker here with maybe a car topper at the very end. This storm has the potential to replace 11/30-12/1/2006 as my most hated ever. Oh well I guess. 

Let's get one thing straight.  NOTHING supplants 12/1/06.  

[Powerball]

9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Let's get one thing straight.  NOTHING supplants 12/1/06.  

Not even the S**** fest of 2011?

[Hoosier]

9 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Not even the S**** fest of 2011?

No, and here's why.  At least we got an epic wind driven sleet storm from that, and then a couple inches of snow to top it off.  With the 2006 storm, the rug was pulled out at the last minute and it was pretty much all rain.  I actually decided to chase the 2006 storm at the last minute.  Call it an angry chase. 

[hawkeye_wx]

On 11/19/2018 at 9:25 AM, hawkeye_wx said:

We've had two snow events already, totaling 3.2".  However, both occurred very late at night/early morning, so I've still barely seen any snow actually fall.

Much of the extreme cold has been wasted here.  I've still barely seen(in daylight) any snow, and won't until December(hopefully).

[zinski1990]

11 hours ago, IWXwx said:

It's really fun to be tracking a major storm system in November and I'm happy for the weenies to my north and west that are about to get blasted, but it sure comes at a cost for those of us in Indiana and Ohio who will only get to experience mood flakes, blustery winds, and temps that be below normal even for mid January standards this week. Obviously really early and I'm hopeful that our turn will come, but in the meantime cold and dry sucks.

We all definitely know the feeling here in Indiana. I swear sometimes winter storms just love to mess with this state. Try being in central Indiana where like it seems like 2/3s of the storms always decide to play the north or south I 70 game. Central Indiana is a big snow repellant. Hoping this winter is finally our turn

[CheeselandSkies]

Reporting in from Madison, WI, the cold with bare ground capital of the Midwest.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[DaveNay]

Here we sit in a rare November blizzard, and The "Weather" channel is showing....not weather. F'ing useless.

[KokomoWX]

On 11/25/2018 at 8:36 AM, IWXwx said:

It's really fun to be tracking a major storm system in November and I'm happy for the weenies to my north and west that are about to get blasted, but it sure comes at a cost for those of us in Indiana and Ohio who will only get to experience mood flakes, blustery winds, and temps that be below normal even for mid January standards this week. Obviously really early and I'm hopeful that our turn will come, but in the meantime cold and dry sucks.

I stayed away from the forum to keep my frustration down.  After two dud winters in a row, I am due for a storm or two.  

[Hoosier]

That lake warmth is tough at this time of year, especially in a marginal airmass with strong onshore flow.  Didn't have anywhere near the amounts of farther west but I'll take what I got and hope the lake pays off at some point this winter.

[buckeye]

On 11/25/2018 at 7:57 PM, zinski1990 said:

We all definitely know the feeling here in Indiana. I swear sometimes winter storms just love to mess with this state. Try being in central Indiana where like it seems like 2/3s of the storms always decide to play the north or south I 70 game. Central Indiana is a big snow repellant. Hoping this winter is finally our turn

Here in Central Ohio, we are your brethren in pain.   As tough as we've had it, I know it's been even worse for you guys.   We can at least score a little with noreaster fringes from time to time and even some Lake Michigan fetches.   For you guys to get a really good windy ole fashioned snow storm, you need it to pass over us coming due north out of the southeast and TN valley.....a very rare track the last several winters.

What we folks in the i-70 snow death corridor need is a moisture bomb out of the gulf, fighting a stout arctic high over the lakes ( and the arctic high managing to stand it's ground).

[zinski1990]

Yah I miss those storm tracks. Usually the best snow makers for Central Indiana are the lows originating from an area like Arklatex or like you said even farther east than that. Just hasn't really occured in about 3 years. I think the Polar Vortex storm of early january 2014 was the last to do so. We had some decent snow after the next winter but not to that extent. Just need a Dec 2004 type track, Jan 2014, GHD 2011, of course Blizzard of 78 which was almost due south to north with phasing, or Jan 26-28 2009 like event

 

[Malacka11]

I have to admit, though I'd love another big storm to affect the area (keeping in mind Sunday's storm only dropped roughly half as much as predicted IMBY- not that I'm complaining, just saying there's still room for improvement in future storms) right now, what I'd love the most is a really active clipper pattern where we get an inch or two of light snow every other day for like a week straight. Last time we really had something like that going, if I recall correctly, was back in 2013-2014- at least for any extended period of time. 

Big blizzards are exciting to forecast, but there's something beautiful about a clipper pattern... It's so much more relaxed, so much more room for error. 

[Roger Smith]

Just an invitation to the winter snowfall forecast contest, deadline is Friday 30th at end of the day. 

The entry form shows the snowfalls to date (which would be part of your forecast). 

Hope to see you there.