IWXwx Posted September 22, 2018 Share Posted September 22, 2018 We're back online just in time for the autumnal equinox. The sudden change of temps is a good way to begin astronomical fall. I thought that I'd lost you guys (and gals)! I actually looked at a couple of other wx forums to see if I could locate anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 22, 2018 Share Posted September 22, 2018 10 minutes ago, IWXwx said: We're back online just in time for the autumnal equinox. The sudden change of temps is a good way to begin astronomical fall. I thought that I'd lost you guys (and gals)! I actually looked at a couple of other wx forums to see if I could locate anyone. I don't think we're done with warmth but should be done with 90s now. Wouldn't guarantee the last part though lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 Glad things are fixed with the forum and we're back online. Was starting to get withdrawal symptoms. Happy autumnal equinox to every one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 Nice to see we are alive and well again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 Raydar.ca has now been down for 3 weeks. I have no source for quality radar here now. Its either a pay-for tool or a Interactive java/flash radar that is worth anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 How many disastrous floods can we have within the same month? Tropical Storm Gordon, Wisconsin, Hurricane Florence, now central Oklahoma and the Dallas area recently. Tropical Storm Gordon seems almost forgettable, but it did bring 9" of rain near Pensacola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 The GFS is like "it's a Nino year, gotta flash some early season cold/snow" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 Sounds like the EC is gonna get off hour cycles coming up here soon. Awesome! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 1 hour ago, hlcater said: Sounds like the EC is gonna get off hour cycles coming up here soon. Awesome! Some of the best news I've come across this month! Interestingly I had the exact same phrase before I read Michael's "good news to start the day!" line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 Oh boy. I've always wondered how much the Euro would be prone to flip flopping if it ran 4 times a day. Guess we'll find out. I wonder if there's going to be 6 hourly data out to 240 hours on the 6z/18z cycles? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 Will take away some of the mystique of staying up late to watch the new Euro roll in, but having additional data to claw through will be fun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 33 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Will take away some of the mystique of staying up late to watch the new Euro roll in, but having additional data to claw through will be fun. I remember being on the boards when it only ran once a day. Times have changed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 28, 2018 Share Posted September 28, 2018 Rosa is in beast mode. Going to weaken a ton before the Baja landfall though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 9, 2018 Author Share Posted October 9, 2018 It looks like Northern MN is in for a few inches of the good stuff tomorrow/tomorrow night. Good agreement with all of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 I hope this look changes for November. It has 3 more weeks. There are no absolute correlations for November and the following winter, but I'd rather have an average/colder than average November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 6 hours ago, Hoosier said: I hope this look changes for November. It has 3 more weeks. There are no absolute correlations for November and the following winter, but I'd rather have an average/colder than average November. Ive heard that CFS has a warm bias (its usually the warmest of all seasonal models), but regardless of what it shows one thing you can absolutely bank on, is that it will change, and perhaps drastically. You are right also in that there is no correlation between November and the following Winter, but like you I certainly prefer average or colder than average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Ive heard that CFS has a warm bias (its usually the warmest of all seasonal models), but regardless of what it shows one thing you can absolutely bank on, is that it will change, and perhaps drastically. You are right also in that there is no correlation between November and the following Winter, but like you I certainly prefer average or colder than average. The elite/great winters (77-78, 13-14, etc) generally didn't have that warmth in the northern US in November. Not that anyone has been calling for an all-time great winter. A cold November doesn't mean it will be a great winter, but all in all, yeah, I'd rather take my chances with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: The elite/great winters (77-78, 13-14, etc) generally didn't have that warmth in the northern US in November. Not that anyone has been calling for an all-time great winter. A cold November doesn't mean it will be a great winter, but all in all, yeah, I'd rather take my chances with that. I would have to go back and look to be sure, but I know we discuss November and its correlation, or lack thereof, to the coming Winter, and like we already said, there really isn't one. Even at face value that CFS is 0.5° to 2ﾟC warmer than normal for November depending on area. Thats not exactly a blowtorch. Sometimes the colors of maps can be misleading. Edit: i think I did a correlation between November snow and the following Winter snow, not sure if I did a temp correlation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 19 hours ago, Hoosier said: I hope this look changes for November. It has 3 more weeks. There are no absolute correlations for November and the following winter, but I'd rather have an average/colder than average November. Colder than average after Nov 20th usually is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 I'll be going out west to the mountains this winter to ski and board. Should be fun. Also went to Iceland this summer. Got to hike up Europes largest glacier and drink fresh water from it melting away before our eyes. By far the coolest place I've ever traveled. Here are a few of my favorite pictures. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: I'll be going out west to the mountains this winter to ski and board. Should be fun. Also went to Iceland this summer. Got to hike up Europes largest glacier and drink fresh water from it melting away before our eyes. By far the coolest place I've ever traveled. Here are a few of my favorite pictures. Awesome pics! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 Wow, that is spectacular! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 10 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Awesome pics! 24 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Wow, that is spectacular! Thanks! I've traveled quite a bit and Iceland is at the top of the list. Nothing really comes close to how much natural nature there is in that country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 On 10/14/2018 at 10:20 AM, BuffaloWeather said: Thanks! I've traveled quite a bit and Iceland is at the top of the list. Nothing really comes close to how much natural nature there is in that country. If you haven't made it to New Zealand, add that one to the list. Trust me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 9 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: If you haven't made it to New Zealand, add that one to the list. Trust me. I am going to Thailand, Indonesia, or New Zealand next year. Debating between those 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 On 10/9/2018 at 11:19 PM, Hoosier said: I hope this look changes for November. It has 3 more weeks. There are no absolute correlations for November and the following winter, but I'd rather have an average/colder than average November. With the s**t weather I'm having right now, I favor whatever gives me the most sunshine. I'm already counting down til Spring because this loathsome dunghole 7 day forecast has very little sunlight and a whole lotta the other! Draining is what I'd call it. Its gotten me to appreciate my beach Thanksgiving even more. In-between sucks, if its going to be dreary and depressing I rather get what Calgary just had with 40-60 cm of snow dumping or record shattering heat. I'd choose the latter though! Yet again this October is shaping up to be a terrible one (below average temperatures). It seems the past 6 years is on repeat mode having the same months having the same anomalies. November has been warm. The Canadian Thanksgiving long weekend heat was insanely great (even saw a tower with a well-defined anvil) and I made sure to absorb all of its gloriousiness before the turdstorm came rushing in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: I am going to Thailand, Indonesia, or New Zealand next year. Debating between those 3. Speculator pics! That is such a beautiful view. I'm big on travelling and exploring new areas myself. I went to Thailand this year for two weeks and I must say it was one of the best and most interesting experiences I've ever had. Going to a completely new environment and experiencing the different culture and atmosphere that was there is something to remember about. I would definitely recommend it. If you plan to go to Phuket or the surrounding area, I'd say a max of 2 or 3 days is all you need. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Interesting study that was posted in the CC forum. It demonstrates not only an increase in tornado frequency east of the Plains, but an increase in favorable tornado environments as determined by STP. Using STP isn't foolproof of course as we have seen days where it's sky high and nothing happens. But it makes sense that higher STP accumulated over the long haul would lead to more activity. The authors don't explicitly say that the trends are due to climate change, but that it is in line with modeled changes. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0048-2.epdf?author_access_token=PQZthaEqlkut62uLi4HlpNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0Ofpugx93Jq3uh7IKWsjvSCCm9cT6oavbBDxy4CNfmgPbnVGCtRW0GfAXKcI3DSQ1vbeVbyw-jzqriwQAlEDMNsLcaDsYkvTU-SaxpOcafW-Q%3D%3D 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 20, 2018 Author Share Posted October 20, 2018 What happened to Chicago Storm (Joe)? I haven't seen a post by him in quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 23, 2018 Author Share Posted October 23, 2018 Now that's a hail storm: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/10/22/severe-storms-unload-knee-deep-hail-rome/?__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true&noredirect=on&utm_term=.ad674b26a26e 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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