Fall Speculation 2018

[Holston_River_Rambler]

That's the tweet.  Yeah, his feed has been technical this fall. Lots of Hadley cells and Ferrel cells... over my head too. 

For my post above I just watched that high not move and started to think, "man, if that were to produce a cold air mass end up dumping across N. America..."  so that's where the question came from. I went back and looked at the 850mb and surface temp anomalies/ temps and it looks like most of the deepest cold is funneling into Siberia at this time and in the near future, but who knows going forward. I do think that set up seems rather unstable long term in that all those lobes would want to reconsolidate, but I'm in over my head at that point.

The Greenland block does look like it sort of shoves the "doughnut" more over the pole and seems to lock those low heights over there. So even though it slows the flow down, maybe it hurts us that way??? 

 

[nrgjeff]

In a nutshell, Anthony is cold. Some of the threads are confusing, because he addresses multiple issues. His secondary line is that this is not SSW and is driven by the Troposphere. However that does not take away from his cold forecast. Sometimes I wonder if he is vague on purpose. It's a fire hose even for another Met, lol! He is sharp as they get though.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The little system the GFS has been showing next Thursday or Friday might bear some watching. UK now has it and EPS went from maybe 1 member having it yesterday, to around 15 that look like the GFS or UK. Not much cold air, but we'll see how and if it plays out. At least there looks to be a big low in the Canadian maritimes locking in any high pressure there is. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

NAM, RGEM, ARW2 really want to develop a lot of snow showers in KY around the backside of the upper low tomorrow AM as it is moving through Ohio. Doesn't look like normal model wrap around moisture to me. Odd trajectory for upslope, but I guess from Paducah to Jackson is a gain in elevation.  Maybe southwest flow/ slight divergence aloft and instability with the cold air advection/ lapse rates aid in lift? Will be interested to see if this happens and is as widespread as the models suggest. Maybe extreme NE TN and SW VA can get in on a quick band or two if the trajectory is just right? This would be one of the few upslope trajectories for that area. 

[John1122]

The 3k NAM is spitting out 2-4 inches around my area in persistent snow showers. Probably above 2000-2500 feet. It's the most aggressive of the models with the snow showers. But they persist for the better part of 48 hours on the hi-res models. I'm just hoping to see flakes since I was in Florida for the snow showers last week that dusted the ground.

[BlunderStorm]

8 hours ago, John1122 said:

The 3k NAM is spitting out 2-4 inches around my area in persistent snow showers. Probably above 2000-2500 feet. It's the most aggressive of the models with the snow showers. But they persist for the better part of 48 hours on the hi-res models. I'm just hoping to see flakes since I was in Florida for the snow showers last week that dusted the ground.

I've learned quickly that positioning matters as much if not more than elevation. If your on a NW facing slope 500 ft lower in elevation than someone in a high valley you can get more out of these sort of events. Uplift can do wonders on the NW slopes. I'm hoping for a dusting out of this but I'm expecting Lucy pull the football out from under me. I would be surprised if I didn't at least see some flurries though.