beanskip Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 GFS now on Euro line but not stalling quite as much — center near Lumberton at 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Still in SE NC at 84 and barely moving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Ok, there’s the stall at 84 — actually backtracked a few miles. Man, the rain for eastern NC — unfathomable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Just now, yoda said: Still in SE NC at 84 and barely moving actually at 84 looks like it moves some east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS looking like euro now. Shocker. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Just now, Mrwolf1972 said: actually at 84 looks like it moves some east. Barely moves N at 90... its meandering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 12z GGEM says nah, going to make landfall near OBX and the head NW into the Mid-Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Florence stays in S NC through 108 on 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 at 108 looks headed towards Tennessee 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 There's swath of 20-30" of rain near the coast on the GFS. The Euro and UKMET had totals over 40" . The freshwater flooding alone is going to be worse than Mathew somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Now that the GFS has produced a run that looks more realistic, let's analyze the nice ventilation on approach. Look at that Hugo-esque outflow channel to the SW. This is the same one the ECMWF had been showing around the 400-300 mb ULL over Florida. Florence will be near the edge of a southerly shear axis. I'm not yet sure if that will merely be adjacent to the southern mid-level circulation or over it. If it is over, then certainly a faster stall would induce weakening; however, if WNW motion doesn't stall until after landfall, Florence may not weaken much for it, and in fact, may be enhanced by upper-level easterly flow away from the core. This would be a timing issue between 54 and 72 hrs depending on slowdown of steering flow. 12z ECMWF is probably going to be close enough now to start nailing down that stall. It had it just inland on the 0z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 17 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z GGEM says nah, going to make landfall near OBX and the head NW into the Mid-Atlantic OUTLIER. Everything is converging on extreme NE SC, all of NC, portions of VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Are there any mechanisms which might cause the precip shield to eventually get displaced from the center like what happened with Mathew? I remember that not being modeled well at all, but it kept shifting more inland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Florence would be making LF in a very surge prone area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Presentation on IR looks to be improving rapidly. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 12z UK went back north a bit, to the Morehead area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Yeah, there was a big wobble on the GOES loop in the last hour and it seemed to make the eye much more symmetrical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 GFS-FV3 goes south, now hits the Myrtle Beach/NC border area. Last night's 00z run had Florence over eastern NC, two runs later it's in central SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 8 minutes ago, friedmators said: Presentation on IR looks to be improving rapidly. . Still trouble on the southern flank. Dry air still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 22 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Are there any mechanisms which might cause the precip shield to eventually get displaced from the center like what happened with Mathew? I remember that not being modeled well at all, but it kept shifting more inland. Matthew had an interaction with a jet entrance region that enhanced the rainfall in the precip shield. Florence looks to just sit and dump. Obviously, the circulation will favor the onshore flow to the north and east of the center for precipitation but for different reasons than with matthew. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Did anybody post the hurricane recon plots from AF308 Mission #7 into Florence? I can't find the data on Tropical Tidbits since the mission is over. It's just so neat to see these plots from Tropical Tidbits. If not, I am curious about the vortex data message pressure/ max FL wind/ max surface wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: GFS-FV3 goes south a bit, now hits the NC/SC border. Bad news for Wilmington. It's quite plausible that Wilmington could get the RFQ, and at a trajectory perpendicular to the coast. It's too early to speculate on exact landfall of course, but earlier I really thought Wilmington had dodged a bullet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Sheesh... GFS-FV3 is now taking the remnant low due west into Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Last four runs of the FV3-GFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITguy13 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 21 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 12z UK went back north a bit, to the Morehead area. It seems to have swapped places with the GFS model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 12z HMON is faster and will make landfall, it appears, south of 6z position — looks to be Cape Fear (unless it stalls at hour 60). Almost to the coast Thursday afternoon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Maybe someone can help me understand this. I am looking at the steering layers and see a pretty clear path into eastern carolina - seems to be inline with where the majority of the models were yesterday. GFS moved away from there today and close to the Euro. Can anyone maybe point to something that would be driving it further south contrary to what it looks like in the steering layers of the atomosphere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 15 minutes ago, Chinook said: Did anybody post the hurricane recon plots from AF308 Mission #7 into Florence? I can't find the data on Tropical Tidbits since the mission is over. It's just so neat to see these plots from Tropical Tidbits. If not, I am curious about the vortex data message pressure/ max FL wind/ max surface wind. I have it saved on google earth. I'll post the vortex data messages and let me know if there's anything else you'd like. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 12:55Z Agency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308 Storm Number & Year: 06 in 2018 Storm Name: Florence (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 7 Observation Number: 15 A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 12:31:50Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.51N 64.84W B. Center Fix Location: 400 statute miles (644 km) to the S (181°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (U.K.). C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,668m (8,753ft) at 700mb D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 951mb (28.09 inHg) E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 165° at 8kts (From the SSE at 9mph) F. Eye Character: Closed G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 108kts (124.3mph) I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the ENE (63°) of center fix at 12:26:00Z J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 150° at 143kts (From the SSE at 164.6mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the ENE (62°) of center fix at 12:25:00Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 107kts (123.1mph) M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SW (232°) of center fix at 12:37:00Z N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 330° at 108kts (From the NNW at 124.3mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SW (232°) of center fix at 12:37:00Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft) R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F) R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 143kts (~ 164.6mph) which was observed 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the ENE (62°) from the flight level center at 12:25:00Z Maximum Flight Level Temp: 16°C (61°F) which was observed 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the ENE (68°) from the flight level center Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 11:10Z Agency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308 Storm Number & Year: 06 in 2018 Storm Name: Florence (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 7 Observation Number: 08 A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 10:47:30Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.35N 64.40W B. Center Fix Location: 412 statute miles (663 km) to the S (177°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (U.K.). C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,669m (8,757ft) at 700mb D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 951mb (28.09 inHg) E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA F. Eye Character: Open in the north G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 98kts (112.8mph) I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NW (319°) of center fix at 10:42:30Z J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 56° at 113kts (From between the NE and ENE at 130.0mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NW (317°) of center fix at 10:40:30Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 112kts (128.9mph) M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SE (136°) of center fix at 10:52:00Z N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 223° at 113kts (From the SW at 130.0mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SE (135°) of center fix at 10:53:00Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft) R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 6°C (43°F) R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature S. Fix Level: 700mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 113kts (~ 130.0mph) which was observed 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NW (317°) from the flight level center at 10:40:30Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... CENTER DROPSONDE TERMINATED AT 13M WITH WINDS 140 DEGREES 12 KNOTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Last four runs of the HMON. You can easily see the uptick in forward speed, but generally the track hasn't changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now