RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Euro is safer for VA and N NC but it’s a nightmare for SE NC and SC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Does a stall increase tornado likelihood or is that irrelevant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Euro is safer for VA and N NC but it’s a nightmare for SE NC and SC: VA threat is certainly highly dependent on how long a northern component in motion is maintained. If gets to NC/VA border, bad news all the way up to CHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Yea this EWRC has really taken a while. Definitely could impact the strengthening expected. I'm thinking we see winds down this morning. Eye is going to be huge once it finishes so like David said, may take some time for winds to respond once pressures begin dropping again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 21 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Does a stall increase tornado likelihood or is that irrelevant? tornado threat is always possible with land falling hurricanes. a stalling one just means duration of the threat lasts longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Yea this EWRC has really taken a while. Definitely could impact the strengthening expected. I'm thinking we see winds down this morning. Eye is going to be huge once it finishes so like David said, may take some time for winds to respond once pressures begin dropping again Has it though? People say that with every storm. EWRC’s often take more than 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 12 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: Has it though? People say that with every storm. EWRC’s often take more than 24hrs. I don't follow hurricanes as much as other severe weather so I wasn't aware of their average time to complete. I was thinking it was around 12hrs but with a larger eye trying to evolve I could see why it would take longer with complicated inner core dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 KUDOS to the NWS. Images from the GOES 16 are so crisp. The models are converging very nicely. The NHC has been very silky smooth with updated forecasts. The NHC formed an early consensus and track shifts have been small angle shifts. People in the path have days of warnings and time to prepare. It would be nice if the EURO and GFS can learn to play nicely with each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 15 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: I don't follow hurricanes as much as other severe weather so I wasn't aware of their average time to complete. I was thinking it was around 12hrs but with a larger eye trying to evolve I could see why it would take longer with complicated inner core dynamics Nope. Often longer. Heck, with really big storms that are much more common in the W PAC, concentric eyes can be stable. There are some great radar images of that structure out of Guam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 To one of the pros that frequent the board. This is for VA/NC mountains. If the system stalled let’s say over south central SC, wouldn’t that still create a ton of lift and add to a southeast component streaming straight from the Atlantic? Long story short would some of the QPF be under-modeled potentially along the spine of the Blue Ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 The NAM has known issues that result in erroneous deepening of TC's. But, because of low biases in model produced 10m wind plots, it may actually have the most reasonable model depiction of sustained winds/gusts in Florence as it approaches NC/SC. Sustained 120's gusting 150's is very reasonable, even though 920mb probably isn't (though who knows given the favorable environment). Images from https://weather.us/model-charts/conus-hd/761-w-341-n/radar-reflectivity/20180913-1800z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: To one of the pros that frequent the board. This is for VA/NC mountains. If the system stalled let’s say over south central SC, wouldn’t that still create a ton of lift and add to a southeast component streaming straight from the Atlantic? Long story short would some of the QPF be under-modeled potentially along the spine of the Blue Ridge? Not necessarily a pro, but yes upslope flow would enhance rains with SE winds. However, a storm stalled over SC would produce N/NE winds over the VA/NC mountains. See graphics below for illustration. (full res ECMWF maps free from https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/819-w-373-n/wind-925mb/20180916-0900z.html) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Earthling Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 11 hours ago, yotaman said: Carteret County NC is under mandatory evacuation beginning Tuesday. Pamlico County mandatory evacuations also starts tomorrow at 3pm. Both are for the entire county, all cities and towns. Out of the surge and into the flood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 143 kts. FL wind in the NE quad on this latest recon pass. First eyewall dropsonde of this run measured 130mph at the surface as well. Florence hasn't weakened much if at all it seems. Also of note, tropical storm force winds were measured on a dropsonde 125 miles NE of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Given the high winds at FL and enlarged CDO overnight, Florence is going to pick up right where it left off. Given the larger eye being more stable, it will be harder for Florence to pull of another one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Serious winds in that dropsonde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Summey Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, friedmators said: Serious winds in that dropsonde. Is there an adjustment that needs to be made or is that truly a 177mph wind reading? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 41 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: To one of the pros that frequent the board. This is for VA/NC mountains. If the system stalled let’s say over south central SC, wouldn’t that still create a ton of lift and add to a southeast component streaming straight from the Atlantic? Long story short would some of the QPF be under-modeled potentially along the spine of the Blue Ridge? To some degree, yes. This is something the globals will have a hard time showing, and this is where local knowledge comes into play. With that said, if it does go through SC, the best/strongest dynamics will stay south of Virginia. Still a long ways to go before we can nail down where the heaviest rain will fall-- it will continue to change in the next couple days, but southern Virginia Blue Ridge and into NC has the best chance of the heaviest rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Looks like ERC is just about complete. The inner eyewall has diminished. The new eyewall is constricting and deep, intense convection has begun wrapping around the center again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Looks like ERC is just about complete. The inner eyewall has diminished. The new eyewall is constricting and deep, intense convection has begun wrapping around the center again. Some of those cumulonimbi have got to be out of this world, height wise. The convection in the southern and southeastern portion of the cyclone is impressive to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannerdude Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said: To one of the pros that frequent the board. This is for VA/NC mountains. If the system stalled let’s say over south central SC, wouldn’t that still create a ton of lift and add to a southeast component streaming straight from the Atlantic? Long story short would some of the QPF be under-modeled potentially along the spine of the Blue Ridge? I'm no expert, but after living in WNC for a number of years and becoming familiar with the microclimates, I feel like an E/NE flow could lead to very high rainfall totals along the Brushy Mountain and South Mountain spurs (Yadkin and Catawba River Valleys). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Looks like ERC is just about complete. The inner eyewall has diminished. The new eyewall is constricting and deep, intense convection has begun wrapping around the center again. in air recon still reporting a slight inner eye wall. not quite sure its done ERC yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, mappy said: in air recon still reporting a slight inner eye wall. not quite sure its done ERC yet. Thinking it is very close to being finished. Should be by midday or so. Afterwards I think this has the best shot it will have at C5, especially given the C5 winds at flight level just waiting to mix down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Looks like recon is heading home after only one pass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Looks like recon is heading home after only one pass? That shows two fixes/passes...... And they have limited range... They didn't fly out of the islands - they flew out of Georgia. Decent ways back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: That shows two fixes/passes...... And they have limited range... They didn't fly out of the islands - they flew out of Georgia. Decent ways back. Okay two passes. The past missions included many more passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Okay two passes. The past missions included many more passes. The NOAA plane was flying out of Bermuda which was ~400 miles away. The AF plane is flying out of Savannah which is ~1100 miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Okay two passes. The past missions included many more passes. Maybe they had a mechanical issue. A lot of the previous missions were also flying with the P-3 aircraft which may have a different range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Just now, Dunkman said: The NOAA plane was flying out of Bermuda which was ~400 miles away. The AF plane is flying out of Savannah which is ~1100 miles away. Yes - and this - I forgot about that. Thanks Dunkman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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