Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

00z UKMET

Very interesting. Pretty much like the majority of previous euro runs, just 75 miles north. 

[SnowGoose69]

I believe that UKMET run is SW of the 12Z run by a bit

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Very interesting. Pretty much like the majority of previous euro runs, just 75 miles north. 

You beat me to it brother. All have taken a big step toward the Euro tonight, minus the wonky OP GFS. 

[downeastnc]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I believe that UKMET run is SW of the 12Z run by a bit

yeah the approach is a bit more from the south landfall point is maybe 20-30 miles south, but people need to keep in mind how that part of the coast is.....Cape Lookout to Cape Fear is only 90 miles as the crow flies. A 20-30 mile wide eye going right up the middle will basically put that entire stretch of coast in the inner core.....

[MNstorms]

Eye replacement happening?

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

You beat me to it brother. All have taken a big step toward the Euro tonight, minus the wonky OP GFS. 

I hope this doesn’t sneak up on your neighbors up in your area. This has the potential to bring major flooding to mtns and foothills of N.C. and VA

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

4 minutes ago, Minnesota_storms said:

Eye replacement happening?

Been happening for about 6 hours now

[MNstorms]

Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Been happening for about 6 hours now

Now it's really happening fast in the last 30 minutes. 

[downeastnc]

Ukie drops 50" of rain at Jacksonville, lots of 12-15" over central NC and 15-25" over most of eastern NC

[TheDreamTraveler]

[David Reimer]

Just now, TheDreamTraveler said:

 

That will be a decent sized eye once the EWRC is complete. It seems to be making decent progress based off the GOES 16 rapid-scan data. Just need the remaining inner-eye to die off and then Florence will probably be off to the races. As I explained earlier, we may not see a potent increase in winds for a while (I'm assuming they've weakened), but I'd expect the pressure to start falling at a decent clip as that OEW starts contracting. 

[NaoPos]

12 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

 

That will be a decent sized eye once the EWRC is complete. It seems to be making decent progress based off the GOES 16 rapid-scan data. Just need the remaining inner-eye to die off and then Florence will probably be off to the races. As I explained earlier, we may not see a potent increase in winds for a while (I'm assuming they've weakened), but I'd expect the pressure to start falling at a decent clip as that OEW starts contracting. 

I believe it may have been a storm last year, where the inner eyewall held on a little longer and disrupted the core longer than expected. 

just something to keep in mind when people expect a quick, clean ERC.

[David Reimer]

Just now, irishbri74 said:

I believe it may have been a storm last year, where the inner eyewall held on a little longer and disrupted the core longer than expected. 

just something to keep in mind when people expect a quick, clean ERC.

Indeed! Florence had a nice tower go up in the inner eyewall about 40 minutes ago. Last I saw it's still spinning around, but its something like that which can delay the removal of the inner eyewall. Recon won't be back in for several more hours, but I'd expect at least some weakening (lower winds/higher pressure). The key to intensification will be how quickly winds can respond back up once the pressure begins to fall. Undoubtedly the wind field has expanded considerably with this EWRC, so that'll probably keep winds in check for a time. 

[jojo762]

8 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

I believe it may have been a storm last year, where the inner eyewall held on a little longer and disrupted the core longer than expected. 

just something to keep in mind when people expect a quick, clean ERC.

Guessing you’re probably talking about Irma. Which had lots of land and islands around it that continually kept disrupting various internal processes as well, as it was still dealing with the effects of Hispaniola as it began interacting with Cuba, and then later on began restregthening as it started to smash into Florida. Florence however will have a couple days of basically zero land interaction. EWRC tend to be finicky from what I have observed. And this very well could have a deleterious impact on the max potential strength of the system for the next half day or more, or it could all get finished up in the next couple hours. We’ll see later this morning. 

[WxMan1]

55 minutes ago, senc30 said:

FV3 South and landfall at ILM

Which means the "new" GFS core is much closer to the EC and UK compared to the operational GFS and CMC.

Doesn't give one much credence to the current GFS solution..

[NaoPos]

1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

Guessing you’re probably talking about Irma. Which had lots of land and islands around it that continually kept disrupting various internal processes around it as well, as it was still dealing with the effects of Hispaniola as it began interacting with Cuba, and then later on began restregthening as it started to smash into Florida. Florence however will have a couple days of basically zero land interaction. EWRC tend to be finicky from what I have observed. And this very well could have a deleterious impact on the max potential strength of the system for the next half day or more, or it could all get finished up in the next couple hours. We’ll see later this morning. 

That would be it! 

 

Agree with everything you’re saying. I was just cautioning some people who may think  that it’s all a clean cut process,(not you or David) especially short term (6-18 hours ). Just trying to make sure others have realistic expectations. 

 

Once it does finish, she should have limited “negatives” to deal with. 

[NaoPos]

Latest Ir shot shows new convection blowing up around the eye again, really giving it a pinhole look. Without microwave, hard to tell if original eyewall or new one wrapping up. 

[senc30]

Landfall at about 74 hours right at ILM it looks like for the EURO

[ncskywarn]

7 minutes ago, senc30 said:

Landfall at about 74 hours right at ILM it looks like for the EURO

Then comes to a screaching halt there at 96.

[Hoosier]

00z Euro has it stalled at the NC/SC border at 96 hours. 

[Thunderblizzard]

Euro looks to be stalling it barely inland SW of ILM at 96

[lj0109]

After making landfall near Holden Beach, still stalled at 102 near the NC/SC border...

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

00z Euro has it stalled at the NC/SC border at 96 hours. 

Then heads SW to Florence, SC at 120hr

[lj0109]

5 minutes ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said:

Then heads SW to Florence, SC at 120hr

Yep Florence, meet Florence 

[Hoosier]

Back to having ugly rainfall totals again on the 00z Euro because of the stall.  Over 40" around ILM.

[Jenkins]

Deep dive Twitter thread on the track differences between ECMWF and GFS. Really good stuff.

 

[lakeeffectkid383]

Can definitely see the much larger eye taking over it’s just a matter of how long it takes. Also now definitley starting to take on a more annular shape.

 

 

[CoastalWx]

Looks like the guidance made a shift SW towards the euro. Not a huge surprise I suppose. While I agree with Phil, the diffferences really showed in the strength of ridge, position of it, and the trough over the NS area that CSnavy pointed out. Those features I think were the bigger driver, but it all blends into the forecast. 

[PackGrad05]

It is interesting (and good for people inland) that more models are showing a stall off-shore or coastal region.  This would lessen wind impacts well inland if it occurred.  It is a trend to keep watching.  I do believe NHC will adjust the track again with the 11AM update.  Less and less of the models are showing a track inland over central NC.  
Meanwhile, storm appears better organized than it did last night...  getting back together for more strengthening perhaps.

[hawkeye_wx]

First recon pass shows Florence several mb(951) and perhaps 10 mph weaker.  I figured even a bit less wind, but recon found 112 kt surface wind in the southeast quad.

IR loop shows the new, larger eyewall beginning to take over.  There is always some stubborn inner eyewall remnant convection that takes a while to disappear.