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Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD


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1 minute ago, drscottsmith said:

Been following the WECT livestream since yesterday (out of Wilmington).  On their radar, eye seems to be moving clearly SW, and once it passes the Oak Island area, it looks like the eye will be back over water (a fair distance offshore) for a period of time.  What will this do for strengthening before a second possible landfall in SC? 

Slows the rate of weakening dramatically. 0z Euro shows a minimal cane down to Eastern SC, through tomorrow a.m.

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4 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Frictional torquing likely playing a part in keeping it offshore. The torque component can become dominant in such weak steering flow and when running at a shallow angle to the coast (as Florence has).

How far South can this really get before it moves West?

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12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The outermost bands are reaching all the way up to the the Ocean City, MD area.

What surprises me most is I don’t see many talking about the moderate to major coastal flooding expected all the way up to MD. That’s incredible given that center of Florence is over 300 miles from these locations in the Mid Atlantic. We’re looking at over 500 miles of coastline with moderate to locally major coastal flooding. This and the prolific rainfall will be Florence’s legacy.

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=AKQ

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VAZ524&warncounty=VAC700&firewxzone=VAZ524&local_place1=2 Miles WNW Newport News / Williamsburg Intl Airport VA&product1=Coastal+Flood+Warning&lat=37.1547&lon=-76.5391

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

What surprises me most is I don’t see many talking about the moderate the major coastal flooding expected all the way up to MD. That’s incredible given the Florence is over 300 miles from these locations in the Mid Atlantic. We’re looking at over 500 miles of coastline with moderate to locally major coastal flooding. This and the prolific rainfall will be Florence’s legacy.

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=AKQ

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VAZ524&warncounty=VAC700&firewxzone=VAZ524&local_place1=2 Miles WNW Newport News / Williamsburg Intl Airport VA&product1=Coastal+Flood+Warning&lat=37.1547&lon=-76.5391

Well up into the Chesapeake Bay. This is just one example. Some coastal flooding is occurring as far North as the Jersey shore and some of the rain might actually make it into Cape May.

Severn River at Annapolis

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4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

What surprises me most is I don’t see many talking about the moderate to major coastal flooding expected all the way up to MD. That’s incredible given that center of Florence is over 300 miles from these locations in the Mid Atlantic. We’re looking at over 500 miles of coastline with moderate to locally major coastal flooding. This and the prolific rainfall will be Florence’s legacy.

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=AKQ

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VAZ524&warncounty=VAC700&firewxzone=VAZ524&local_place1=2 Miles WNW Newport News / Williamsburg Intl Airport VA&product1=Coastal+Flood+Warning&lat=37.1547&lon=-76.5391

the news up here has been harping on it quite a bit. coastal flood watches out for tonight into the weekend. Ocean City mayor was on the radio this morning talking about their efforts to help against erosion should there be any surge issues, etc. Our governor declared a state of emergency earlier this week. 

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38 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Damn.  MYR might be getting hit hard.  NWS forecast this afternoon has gusts to 83kts

Live reports show the offshore wind at MYR has the ocean pushed way back (extra wide beach) with no significant waves due to the offshore wind flow. The ocean is about as calm as can be. When the center of circulation gets south of MYR, it'll get a 'extra' surge.

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Use caution with the USGS rapid deployment gauges that are listed.  They use tipping buckets and are likely being affects by the wind, therein produce artificially higher rainfall amounts.

Tipping bucket gauges tend to be biased low in heavy rain events. Is there some aspect of these gauges you're aware of that would cause this? Or wind-induced tips? 

Edit: Just saw the post above about the wind effects. 

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Florence had the 3rd lowest barometric pressure ever recorded for a landfalling U.S. category 1 hurricane south of 40N.

#1....942 mb Sandy........... 2012

#2....952 mb Irene............  2011

#3....958 mb Florence.......  2018

#4....963 mb Lili................. 2003

#5....966 mb Isaac..............2011

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E23.html

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8 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

Ok this is what NOT to do in the middle of a hurricane.....

image.thumb.png.75333ff7733ea144febe154a308f0eea.png

I saw that live.  Then the wind gusts started up and fortunately the guy finally came down off the ladder.  Looking at the streams this morning, there are just tons and tons of pine debris all over the roads and highways.  Now I know why NC posters here have talked about "the smell of pine"!

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3 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I saw that live.  Then the wind gusts started up and fortunately the guy finally came down off the ladder.  Looking at the streams this morning, there are just tons and tons of pine debris all over the roads and highways.  Now I know why NC posters here have talked about "the smell of pine"!

I'll play devil's advocate here. If a branch was about to come down on my house and I thought there was a lull in the storm, I might run out too to trim a limb before it crashes into my roof.

Is it safe? No. Do I recommend it? No. But I can understand the logic a bit, despite the dangerous nature of it.

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