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Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD


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26 minutes ago, AJF0602 said:

Jones onslow haha and man even though its a cat one these winds are so strong right now, you step outside and all you can smell is fresh pine.

Let’s be honest, sub 960 on a Cat 1 is BS.  Not sure when the NHC will get the impact equation right but ~1 minute sustained is not the answer as you are currently witness to.

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Well , can’t add attachments via mobile I guess? But yea..

 

saw a a few frames of -80° C cloud tops over top of those hot towers. Pretty impressive, and not good news for the coast. Largest burst of cold tops in terms of coverage so far today. 

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I mean c'mon this is serious business.

 

Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 372
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
900 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2018

TORNADO WATCH 372 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NCC013-031-049-055-061-079-095-103-107-117-133-137-147-177-187-
141100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0372.180914T0100Z-180914T1100Z/

NC
.    NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BEAUFORT             CARTERET            CRAVEN
DARE                 DUPLIN              GREENE
HYDE                 JONES               LENOIR
MARTIN               ONSLOW              PAMLICO
PITT                 TYRRELL             WASHINGTON
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9 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

I am stunned looking at IR images, just exploding on West edge. Seriously highest we have seen today pretty much.

You can see how little the IR corresponds to the radar. one little convective dot in the eyewall on the radar and the IR lights up.

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Wrightsville Beach near-shore and offshore buoys now both getting 70 kt (81mph) wind gusts. The outer buoy  (41037) seems to be in the eyewall convection. Cape Lookout station getting pretty decent 89mph (77kt). Still category 1 wind gusts. It is kind of true with such a low pressure of 957mb, normally you see cat 2 to possibly cat 3. But the winds of cat 2 just aren't quite there.

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Just now, Chinook said:

Wrightsville Beach near-shore and offshore buoys now both getting 70 kt (81mph) wind gusts. The outer buoy  (41037) seems to be in the eyewall convection. Cape Lookout station getting pretty decent 89mph (77kt). Still category 1 wind gusts. It is kind of true with such a low pressure of 957mb, normally you see cat 2 to possibly cat 3. But the winds of cat 2 just aren't quite there.

I guess what matters is the storm surge of Cat 2 there?

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Yes, that matters a lot. Lots of things depend on the level of the surge. Just think, back in Hurricane Katrina, which was Category 5 over the Gulf of Mexico, weakened to cat 2/cat 3 (??) at landfall in Mississippi. There was something like a 25 ft storm surge at Bay St. Louis/ Waveland/ Pass Christian MS. I think that may be a record for the USA. I saw that area in 2010-- nearly everything had been rebuilt. At one place in Bay St Louis, there were just stilts left over from a home that was long gone. So, that is making me wonder. Is this storm bringing a 15 ft storm surge? I haven't checked, but it is a big deal. I also used to be at Myrtle Beach. I was not there for any disasters, but it seems like some areas are not too protected. Like a 5-7 ft storm surge might hurt pretty bad south of Myrtle.

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Wilmington, isn't really Getting Hammered

We are however, experiencing Light to Moderate Rains & "sustained" Winds just shy of TS Force...

That said, I'm just inland  over Snows Cut bridge..  I'm  not "on the Island" at this time..

Still have power, NO "Transformer Flashes" I've seen or heard, thus far.. At this time..

Listening to the "scanner" for New Bern though...

God Bless those "Swift Boat" Crews..   Appears they quite BUSY, listening to addresses broadcast for "rescue", & Cross-referencing with Google Maps,

 

!Listening Seems MANY "rescues" are in the Vicinity Right on or extremely close to the Neuse River Bank!

Listened to One rescue the Folks Went into the ATTIC A-la Katrina Style!

 

GOD BLESS those First Responders  Swift Boat Crews

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Red Porch Guy!!!! I know this may be OT but just wanted to let you know that we have Florence’s blue shed.....this guy in Wilmington....periscope feed....he’s consistently streaming and seems to have portable power enough to stay on....not sure about when Flo knocks out his internet

https://www.pscp.tv/w/bms2JjF4TmpheHdEQXlrS2J8MXlvS01WempweU9HUXgYZgjJTVsbc13408Fw8HLx4PPkicrXrSFYSlw0meqJ?t=10m49s

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39 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:
Not sure IR matters from what I learned bit ago, radar better look at it.


They are both equally important. What is presented on radar real-time right now is why the coldest convective canopy of the last 24 hours is in progress. Eastern band has been feeding into western wall and now the eastern band is more or less the eastern eyewall. The eyewall looks healthy and not eroded. Whether that translates to falling pressure, we'll see. If nothing else, this could halt pressure rise and maintain steady state. Doubt winds would respond (as has been repeated by many) due to loose gradient / large vortex / expanded windfield at this point however. But destructive hurricane force gusts may mix down better as that western wall passes over the shoreline and eventually Wilmington.

68ce7a87f10d5ccdd723f88a8c9cb95b.gif

 

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1 hour ago, Chinook said:

Wrightsville Beach near-shore and offshore buoys now both getting 70 kt (81mph) wind gusts. The outer buoy  (41037) seems to be in the eyewall convection. Cape Lookout station getting pretty decent 89mph (77kt). Still category 1 wind gusts. It is kind of true with such a low pressure of 957mb, normally you see cat 2 to possibly cat 3. But the winds of cat 2 just aren't quite there.

As you noted, while Florence is a Cat 1 storm, as defined by max winds, when looking at the central pressure of 957 millibars, it looks more like a Cat 3 storm. As I'm sure you know, the reason for this is that the storm has become much larger than most storms, such that the energy is spread out in lower winds, much further from the center, but the surge and rainfall impacts will be worse for a larger area than for a smaller storm with greater winds at the center.  The IKE (integrated kinetic energy) is just as much as it was when it had 130 mph winds, as per NHC comments yesterday.  

No automatic alt text available.

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