Michigander Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 48 minutes ago, PressureDrop2017 said: Three of the kiosks on the Bogue pier blew out already while we were watching, and that is just getting started. That area around Emerald Isle gets absolutely hammered for two days, with way worse than what is happening now. So frankly it would be surprising if that pier is still standing on Sunday That cam is the best live view of the point of impact, thanks for posting it Either the camera moved, or the pier is gone. Thinking the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adiabatic13 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Flo has managed to stall about 40 miles east of shelf waters...lucky girl. Her unwinding is likely delayed until she exits the Gulf Stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 minute ago, adiabatic13 said: Flo has managed to stall about 10 miles east of shelf waters...lucky girl. Her unwinding is likely delayed until she exits the Gulf Stream. I'm really amazed at how good she looks on radar. Not only are the moats filling in, but the entire rain shield looks to be expanding as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Earthling Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Some NC USGS obs Quote https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nc/nwis/current/?type=rdg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: I'm really amazed at how good she looks on radar. Not only are the moats filling in, but the entire rain shield looks to be expanding as well. surprising considering what she looked like just a few hours ago. Maybe the result of the improved microwave imagery we saw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Nice burst of convection wrapping around the center with overshooting tops. Cloud temps approaching -70 now. Think she just belched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Flo has managed to stall about 40 miles east of shelf waters...lucky girl. Her unwinding is likely delayed until she exits the Gulf Stream. Yes, the OHC of the Gulf Stream is pretty high and the 26°C isotherm is very deep. There will still be upwelling off the shelf in short order however due to NW flow perpendicular to the coast in the southern circulation. But half of the circulation will remain over the GS if it begins SW motion faster than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 New recon heading in now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 look at those cloud tops, wow! https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=vis 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Would stalling over the gulf stream like Florence seemingly has reduce the risk for upwelling since there should be a constant NE flow of fresh warm water? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 A few overshooting tops on the WNW side of the eye now: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Would stalling over the gulf stream like Florence seemingly has reduce the risk for upwelling since there should be a constant NE flow of fresh warm water? Probably not. I don't think the NE flow of water is fast enough/deep enough to counteract upwelling. But I agree that the inner core has actually gotten its act together rather well. I doubt it intensifies much, but it'll probably at least hold serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 KNKT peak wind of 63kts last hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 I think we could go sub 950 during this recon pass 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: Nope, maybe closer to 960? Looks terrible. Disagree - the last few frames show nice tall convection on the west side making it around the eye a fair bit. First tall convection in hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: Nope, maybe closer to 960? Looks terrible. Best it's looked in 24 hour or so. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Probably not. I don't think the NE flow of water is fast enough/deep enough to counteract upwelling. But I agree that the inner core has actually gotten its act together rather well. I doubt it intensifies much, but it'll probably at least hold serve The flow at the surface would get stalled but that would not stop the fresh supply of warm waters at deeper layers which will get mixed out via upwelling. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Nope, maybe closer to 960? Looks terrible.To be fair, this is the best radar presentation Florence has had since coming into range. But Florence probably will still be steady state unless it continues with the deep convection and the eyewall continues organizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Looks like a flareup of convection around the southern and eastern eyewall on the last half hour of visible satellite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Just now, mempho said: The flow at the surface would get stalled but that would not stop the fresh supply of warm waters at deeper layers which will get mixed out via upwelling. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk But the point I was trying to make is I don't think that happens at a fast enough rate such that it outpaces the speed of upwelling, especially for a storm the size of Florence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 25 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I'm really amazed at how good she looks on radar. Not only are the moats filling in, but the entire rain shield looks to be expanding as well. Surprised yet not surprised at the same time. Some of the hi res guidance showed this reorganizing fairly well. Not good news at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 *This is not a free pass to derail the thread again with talk about other storms.* That being said, Diana in 1984 could be somewhat useful to keep in the back of the mind for what is possible with intensity since it meandered around the same area also in mid September. After weakening from category 4, it was able to maintain category 2 status for a full day before weakening to category 1 at landfall. Of course no two storms are exactly the same and water temps/OHC are just part of the puzzle. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 But the point I was trying to make is I don't think that happens at a fast enough rate such that it outpaces the speed of upwelling, especially for a storm the size of Florence.Fair enough. I can see your point as well and it is debatable. Are there any buoys moored directly in the Gulf Stream close to the eye that would enable us to see what actually happens? Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastKnox Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Looks like a little southerly shear at the moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Convection is now appearing on the north side of the eye as well... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, salbers said: Convection is now appearing on the north side of the eye as well... Yup almost completely wrapped around, with a very apparent eye becoming visible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, EastKnox said: Looks like a little southerly shear at the moment. Been a small amount of shear all day but it's been relatively weak and not having a huge impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 11 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: This is classic map watching bias. There is always bursts of convection at different points. Your so desperate, your willing to believe anything. ? The radar presentation is improving. The satellite presentation is showing intense convection wrapping around the core. The satellite estimated intensity (ADT) numbers are starting to rise. Might be a short term trend and it goes to crap when it gets over the shallower waters but anyone looking at this objectively would agree that it is currently strengthening. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 I mean, it does look fairly good on visible, but when you look at IR images it is still pretty ragged looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 That’s some pretty strong gusts already. Has to be approaching hurricane force. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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