Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

[Hoosier]

00z GFS is west of 12z as well so far, so not just a 1 cycle move.

[gjlp]

Looking like GFS is about to make landfall at Cape Hatteras

[senc30]

Out to 72, appears 50-75 miles west this run to me

[gjlp]

And big drop in pressure (10mb) from 66 to 72hrs... from 930MB down to 918MB

[NorthArlington101]

Gonna stall out right over the Outer Banks again... very little movement between 78 & 84, any movement was due N.

 

[gjlp]

Hah!  Stalled @78hr before landfall

[Amped]

Looks like the 12z GGEM on steroids.

[senc30]

Going East now at 96. Certainly a run that moved a good amount west this time. 

And now back North and west at 102. This is a weird model.

[Cooper08]

1 minute ago, senc30 said:

Going East now at 96. Certainly a run that moved a good amount west this time. 

Sits off the coast and slightly on land in same area for 24 hrs would be devastating for that area. 

[Hoosier]

Last 3 runs

 

[gjlp]

1 minute ago, Cooper08 said:

Sits off the coast and slightly on land in same area for 24 hrs would be devastating for that area. 

Indeed... the Outer Banks are so fragile... devastating is the right word.

[Radtechwxman]

What models are showing a stall? Is it just global models? Seems like most hurricane models bring it onshore

[gjlp]

Good grief... now moving SW

[gjlp]

1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

What models are showing a stall? Is it just global models? Seems like most hurricane models bring it onshore

The new 00z GFS run

[gjlp]

Just now, gjlp said:

The new 00z GFS run

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm&runtime=2018091100&fh=114

[SnowGoose69]

The GFS may simply be moving towards more of a landfall idea vs. a stall.  If the UKMET comes into MYR-ILM or the Euro goes more SW I would be more concerned, but not yet

[Hoosier]

00z GFS is headed for Myrtle Beach moving southwest. 

[WidreMann]

Meanwhile GGEM stalls and then goes out to sea, albeit near the coast.

[gjlp]

And finally landfall  @136hrs NC/SC border

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

Meanwhile GGEM stalls and then goes out to sea, albeit near the coast.

Uh no, GGEM stalls and then heads inland just SW of OBX

[WidreMann]

Just now, yoda said:

Uh no, GGEM stalls and then heads inland just SW of OBX

Must have gotten old images.

[Amped]

GFS and CMC both with crazy stall loop landfall solutions.  Most major landfalls plow into the coast rather than stall for 36hrs just offshore and cut inland.  If it does this it will likely weaken below CAT3 status.

[gjlp]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

GFS and CMC both with crazy stall loop landfall solutions.  Most major landfalls plow into the coast rather than stall for 36hrs just offshore and cut inland.  If it does this it will likely weaken below CAT3 status.

True -- but no before decimating NC coastline. Then heads inland and dumps days of rain over central NC.

[ncskywarn]

FV3 is SW and ridge is stronger at hour 30

[gjlp]

Actually, last few runs of GFS have been pretty consistent. The latest doesn't have as pronounced a loop but the outcome is still much the same.

[gjlp]

1 minute ago, gjlp said:

Actually, last few runs of GFS have been pretty consistent. The latest doesn't have as pronounced a loop but the outcome is still much the same.

And very similar to 00z Canadian

[SnoSki14]

This is a historic disaster in the works, Florence will likely terrorize the Carolinas for days. 

Models are picking up on the strength of the ridge again, and if that's the case, then the first LF could end up further south. 

[senc30]

FV3 South and landfall at ILM

[downeastnc]

00Z ukie about the same hard to tell on these panels but right around Jville/MHX

[hawkeye_wx]

00z UKMET