Stebo Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 minute ago, wawayanda said: Sobering and very clarifying demonstration of what storm surge from 3ft up to 9ft actually looks like on the ground. Share with folks out there who aren't taking this seriously. The surge is going to go deep into these sounds and bays, up the rivers. It is going to be a major problem. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 I don't think that big gulp of dry air swirling around in the core will allow the inner core reorganization to proceed very far, but recon did just find 84 kts at the surface in the north quad, which is a bit higher than they've found in a while. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LawdogGRNJ Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Onlsow Bay Outer (Station 41159) buoy wave height (WVHT) in feet and Average Wave Period (AVP) in seconds, showing Florence approach to the NC coast. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41159 09 13 0000 - WVHT 7.5 ft - AVP 6.7 sec 09 13 0600 - WVHT 8.9 ft - AVP 7.0 sec 09 13 1200 - WVHT 18 ft - AVP 9.9 sec 09 13 1400- WVHT 23.9 ft - AVP 10.2 sec 09 13 1600 - WVHT 22.6 ft - AVP 9.6 sec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, LawdogGRNJ said: Onlsow Bay Outer (Station 41159) buoy wave height (WVHT) in feet and Average Wave Period (AVP) in seconds, showing Florence approach to the NC coast. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41159 0000 - WVHT 7.5 ft - AVP 6.7 sec 0600 - WVHT 8.9 ft - AVP 7.0 sec 1200 - WVHT 18 ft - AVP 9.9 sec 1400- WVHT 23.9 ft - AVP 10.2 sec 1600 - WVHT 22.6 ft - AVP 9.6 sec Water temp down 2 degrees in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: I don't think that big gulp of dry air swirling around in the core will allow the inner core reorganization to proceed very far, but recon did just find 84 kts at the surface in the north quad, which is a bit higher than they've found in a while. I’d agree, in my very uneducated point of view. We have been watching for over a day now waiting for the core to reform, but it just has kept on ingesting dry air and looked very ragged. At this point though, it doesn’t matter. The damage is already pretty set as far as what surge will do and fresh water flooding will be a nightmare. I do wish that people would stop analyzing every radar frame and say it is forming an eye or whatever else lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 955mb on the latest dropsonde, pressure holding pretty much steady since a few mb drop earlier. The radar presentation continues to look impressive IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 24 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: It looks like Florence will recover at the last possible second with an apparent huge eye clearing out in 3-6 hours. Pressure at landfall will be important. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=vis FYI, that was dry air from earlier. Seems to be slowly mixing out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 The 12z GFS doesn't really take the center fully onshore until Saturday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper08 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: FYI, that was dry air from earlier. Seems to be slowly mixing out. No location provided but I imagine these houses are taking water.... https://mobile.twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1040284400313937920 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Cooper08 said: No location provided but I imagine these houses are taking water.... https://mobile.twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1040284400313937920 If it is already that high, I can’t imagine what it will look like after nearly two days of water stacking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Both the 12z HWRF and HMON have Florence regaining major hurricane status early tomorrow morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 As far as current steering goes it's a quagmire ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Both the 12z HWRF and HMON have Florence regaining major hurricane status early tomorrow morning. *IF it stops gulping enough dry air to fill the Sahara desert. I don't see that happening frankly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Both the 12z HWRF and HMON have Florence regaining major hurricane status early tomorrow morning. The question is can it strengthen and retain that girth of storm force winds. Massive storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Conditions have improved at Frying pan and the wind direction has shifted, presumably from onshore to out of the North now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Onslow Bay Bouy wave size already up to 25ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawayanda Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Live cam from the pier at Bogue Inlet, Emerald Isle NC. Feed has been a little spotty so don't be surprised if it craps out http://www.ebmcdn.net/webcast/flash/bogue-inlet/live-iframe.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 I’d be very surprised if 12z euro doesn’t have Florence parallel the coast based on this look out to hr 24 with a 1026 hp pressing south out of NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Bouy in Onslow Bay. Still waiting for the north winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I’d be very surprised if 12z euro doesn’t have Florence parallel the coast based on this look out to hr 24 with a 1026 hp pressing south out of NNE. Looks to be doing just that (paralleling) out to 48 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 12Z ECMWF 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Looks to be doing just that (paralleling) out to 48 hr. Yea. This should be very concerning bc this track really maximizes impact by slowing the rate of weakening while continuing to have enough of circulation offshore to hit 100’s of miles of coastline with significant (cat 3+) storm surge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Cloud pattern is looking better. Southern outflow is expanding. Also seems to really be slowing down now. Although not deep she's sitting over some high octane rocket fuel.. She got displaced from the upper ridge that was over the top but it may be re-establishing itself from CIMMS wind analysis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pugsgirl13 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Hopefully SC can be spared significant surge with majority of flow offshore and the storm approaching from Northeast as opposed to from Southeast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Yea. This should be very concerning bc this track really maximizes impact by slowing the rate of weakening while continuing to have enough of circulation offshore to hit 100’s of miles of coastline with significant (cat 3+) storm surge. It's cliche but it's going to be a wobble watching nowcast thing given how close it will be to the coast and models sometimes being off with precise track even at relatively short leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 35 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Conditions have improved at Frying pan and the wind direction has shifted, presumably from onshore to out of the North now. not true. wind is still in the same direction its been all morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: It's cliche but it's going to be a wobble watching nowcast thing given how close it will be to the coast and models sometimes being off with precise track even at relatively short leads. Yes. Always is. Worth noting that GFS and Hwrf trended towards the Euro op idea of paralleling the coast. That track —in general—is gaining credibility that’s all that can be said right now. Hopefully EPS narrows the posts through hr 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Enough about the flag. 8 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 First hurricane force gust recorded. 74mph from the Onslow Bay buoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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