Eskimo Joe Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: How many feet up is that Frying Pan Tower? Are you referring to the buoy? This is the only ob site I could find: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobjohnsonforthehall Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 8 minutes ago, allgame830 said: How many feet up is that Frying Pan Tower? 80 feet I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, mappy said: Already? Fun. Been in that area a million times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Well....radar is showing that moat apparent in IR now wrapping into the South side of the core which is once again void of deep convection. Not disagreeing but radar has a hard time seeing through the eye sometimes. . 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 minute ago, friedmators said: Not disagreeing but radar has a hard time seeing through the eye sometimes. . I would be more inclined to agree with that, but the WV loop shows the dry air entrainment well. Maybe Florence will be able to burp it out and recover quickly but time is running out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 955mb, 105mph at 11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 24 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Are you referring to the buoy? This is the only ob site I could find: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41013 This: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Tornado Warning NCC095-131515- /O.NEW.KMHX.TO.W.0003.180913T1500Z-180913T1515Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2018 The National Weather Service in Newport has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Hyde County in eastern North Carolina... * Until 1115 AM EDT. * At 1100 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Swindell Fork, or 27 miles north of Cedar Island, moving west at 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Swan Quarter Ferry Terminal around 1105 AM EDT. Rose Bay around 1110 AM EDT. Sladesville around 1115 AM EDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Please send your reports of wind and/or hail damage, including trees or large limbs downed, by calling the National Weather Service office in Newport at 1-800-889-6889. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drscottsmith Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Hopefully not an incorrect question... Do storm observations need to go in the Storm Mode thread (here) or will there be a separate thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 ILM has produced a mesonet for non-traditional sites. As power fails, the sites will stop reporting: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ILM&product=OSO&format=TXT&version=1&glossary=0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Tornado Warning NCC013-137-131545- /O.NEW.KMHX.TO.W.0004.180913T1519Z-180913T1545Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1119 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2018 The National Weather Service in Newport has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Beaufort County in eastern North Carolina... Central Pamlico County in eastern North Carolina... * Until 1145 AM EDT. * At 1118 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Lowland, or 24 miles northwest of Cedar Island, moving west at 50 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... South Creek around 1130 AM EDT. Royal and Maribel around 1135 AM EDT. Edward around 1140 AM EDT. Grantsboro and Olympia around 1145 AM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Aurora, Stonewall, Mesic, Alliance, Bayboro, Vandemere and Bridgeton. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Please send your reports of wind and/or hail damage, including trees or large limbs downed, by calling the National Weather Service office in Newport at 1-800-889-6889. && LAT...LON 3513 7703 3507 7697 3506 7697 3506 7696 3511 7694 3515 7699 3525 7690 3532 7699 3542 7653 3539 7652 3542 7651 3543 7652 3543 7651 3537 7647 3543 7646 3542 7645 3527 7638 3504 7699 TIME...MOT...LOC 1518Z 070DEG 45KT 3533 7652 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Tornado Warning NCC095-131515- /O.NEW.KMHX.TO.W.0003.180913T1500Z-180913T1515Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2018 The National Weather Service in Newport has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Hyde County in eastern North Carolina... * Until 1115 AM EDT. * At 1100 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Swindell Fork, or 27 miles north of Cedar Island, moving west at 45 mph... Exceedingly rare to get a westward moving tornado. These cases of landfalling westward-moving TCs are about the only time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 18 minutes ago, drscottsmith said: Hopefully not an incorrect question... Do storm observations need to go in the Storm Mode thread (here) or will there be a separate thread? I would say to go ahead and put storm obs here until the powers above my pay scale create a separate thread for those specifically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 GFS and NAM destroy the area NE of ILM with rain. Seeing 38" on the GFS through hr 60, and that is a global model. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Since 11:20, New Bern, NC has picked up 0.66" rain during a 21-minute span. The wind has also gusted as high as 51 mph there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Someone posted somewhere a link to a Twitter list of mets, officials, etc.--anyone have that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS and NAM destroy the area NE of ILM with rain. Seeing 38" on the GFS through hr 60, and that is a global model. That highlights the importance of the NHC's warning about flash flooding: Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas and the southern and central Appalachians through early next week, as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, jacindc said: Someone posted somewhere a link to a Twitter list of mets, officials, etc.--anyone have that? https://twitter.com/mattlanza/lists/florence 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 GFS just took a step towards the 0z euro track that parallels the coast of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, jacindc said: Someone posted somewhere a link to a Twitter list of mets, officials, etc.--anyone have that? I took a ss of it to remember. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Areas that stay NE of the center will get pounded by the core at landfall then continue to get wacked by feeder bands off the ocean for a while as Florence moved slowly West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Wind was really strong just now with the first band that just came in Jacksonville, all you could smell outside was fresh pine. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chucktown81 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, jbenedet said: GFS just took a step towards the 0z euro track that parallels the coast of SC. Curious, how helpful/accurate are these models (GFS/Euro) this point so close the landfall of the storm? Are there other models at this point in the short range that do better with storm direction? Or is it just nowcasting at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 At this point will have to remember the core may do funny things as a result of the slow movement and interaction with land, I think the models still have use as far as trends as to where they core will likely go though. Couple other points. While winds likely wont be the big story here, the unusual slow track will result in a lot of coastal areas getting the RFQ of the storm for significant duration. Will have watch where feeded bands set up later, GFS wants to pound the Jacksonville area for a long period. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 At this point will have to remember the core may do funny things as a result of the slow movement and interaction with land, I think the models still have use as far as trends as to where they core will likely go though. Couple other points. While winds likely wont be the big story here, the unusual slow track will result in a lot of coastal areas getting the RFQ of the storm for significant duration. Will have watch where feeded bands set up later, GFS wants to pound the Jacksonville area for a long period. Now that Florence has slowed significantly, I am most curious if the 12z ECMWF will continue resolving SW motion down the SC coastline or go ahead and slide Florence inland over Florence, SC, as the GFS and GEM are showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 This storm is absolutely massive in size, taking a look at widespread water vapor brings it into perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 50 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Since 11:20, New Bern, NC has picked up 0.66" rain during a 21-minute span. The wind has also gusted as high as 51 mph there. that little piece is almost here, been tracking it on radar.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 It looks like Florence will recover at the last possible second with an apparent huge eye clearing out in 3-6 hours. Pressure at landfall will be important. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=vis 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawayanda Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Sobering and very clarifying demonstration of what storm surge from 3ft up to 9ft actually looks like on the ground. Share with folks out there who aren't taking this seriously. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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