PackGrad05 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, Dunkman said: Looking at recon observations so far there is no real eyewall left at all. It's just a huge area of category 1 winds. That's true but it also seems a lot better organized and more symmetrical than it was earlier this morning. Perhaps ERC? I think we see a new eye emerge over the next 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Looking at satellite, Florence appears to be strengthening and in best shape over past 24 hrs. Outflow is healthy in all quadrants, good symmetry and, blossoming of deep convection within CDO. All that said, as I mentioned yesterday Florence appears to be translating most/all of his intensification into greater size, which acts to impede potential increases in windspeed/SLP as the circulation is broadening much more than tightening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Looking at satellite, Florence appears to be strengthening and in best shape over past 24 hrs. Outflow is healthy in all quadrants, good symmetry and, blossoming of deep convection within CDO. All that said, as I mentioned yesterday Florence appears to be translating most/all of his intensification into greater size, which acts to impede potential increases in windspeed/SLP as the circulation is broadening much more than tightening. The core looks good on radar. Eyewall is now closed with a ring of deep convection starting to wrap completely around from the North. I believe we will see the reemergence of the eye this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 957mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 as a reminder: just because the storm is cat 2, doesn't make it any less dangerous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 71kt in the NE eyewall. She's barely a hurricane at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The core looks good on radar. Eyewall is now closed with a ring of deep convection starting to wrap completely around from the North. I believe we will see the reemergence of the eye this afternoon. Yea, but largely only aesthetic at this point. Hurricane windfield is enormous and still growing—this looks like a more impactful version of Ike. And it’s quite fitting being that today marks the 10 yr anniversary of Ike’s landfall in SE Texas. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Yea, but largely only aesthetic at this point. Hurricane windfield is enormous and still growing—this looks like a more impactful version of Ike. And it’s quite fitting being that today marks the 10 yr anniversary of Ike’s landfall in SE Texas. Agree about the wind field but the eyewall is looking better and better on radar. Still believe this has a decent shot at intensifying some today. That moat in the RFQ needs to fill in, and it is trying to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 71kt in the NE eyewall. She's barely a hurricane at the surface. Yeah, each recon plane is finding a lower max wind than the last. Florence appears to be a large cat 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Some brief drop in pressure is possible due to passing over the gulf stream. but Florence will begin to weaken a bit before landfall almost certainly due to cooler shelf waters and slowing of movement speed. Main issues with Florence are going to be significant coastal surge, Long duration of hurricane force gusts near coastal areas especially due to large wind field and slow movement, and excessive rainfall due to large circulation/slow movement. The ILM-Morehead City corridor is going to get the worst all all of these as fetch over water will pile up rainfall and make it hard for runoff to drain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: Yeah, each recon plane is finding a lower max wind than the last. Florence appears to be a large cat 1. They actually got slightly stronger winds in the SW eyewall, but still nothing above cat 1. Curious as to whether or not the pressure is rising, falling or steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 The weakening will give some folks a false sense of security while the impacts will remain largely the same... Am I correct in saying that this has little effect on inland areas (Like RDU) since the tropical storm winds still extend so far from the center? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Agree about the wind field but the eyewall is looking better and better on radar. Still believe this has a decent shot at intensifying some today. That moat in the RFQ needs to fill in, and it is trying to do so. If you’re quantifying intensification by central pressure falls, he’ll likely remain at/near steady state, but if you’re deducing intensification through an increasing area (size) of lower pressure than he will be strengthening. This is my point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Atlantic Beach webcam, can see the waves starting to lap up and smack the bottom of the pier now,occasionally. Have to wait forever for the cam to pan around. But something to see as the storm rolls in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: If you’re quantifying intensification by central pressure falls, he’ll likely remain at/near steady state, but if you’re deducing intensification through an increasing area (size) of lower pressure than he will be strengthening. This is my point. Yes I understand. The size of the hurricane is continuing to expand however the storm itself isn't deepening. The expansion in size is actually helping to reduce the pressure gradient which in turn reduces the winds closest to the core. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 58kts on the latest dropsonde well NE of the center. #5 (For Reference) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Pretty uniform, and this dropsonde was just off the NC coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Frying Pan Ocean Cam Live https://youtu.be/deG4NxkouGM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I wasn't comparing the impacts of Sandy to Florence. The comparison is because the larger wind field of lesser winds can often produce a higher category storm surge. I agree and sorry for misunderstanding your earlier post. On the contrary a storm like Charley 2004 had little storm surge with it and it was a high end CAT 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 can we take the sandy talk elsewhere, please? 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 10 hours ago, zinski1990 said: 957 mb? wow weaker wonder if it drops back 953.8 now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 all sandy related posts were removed if you NYC posters wanna talk Sandy, take it to your subforum. thanks 9 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 It's unclear how successful it'll be, with pockets of dry air still pinwheeling around in there, but Florence appears to be trying to rebuild the inner core. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, mappy said: all sandy related posts were removed if you NYC posters wanna talk Sandy, take it to your subforum. thanks Thanks mappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 The whole lifecycle of Florence has been nothing but dramatic upticks and collapses. Perhaps one final uptick? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 86 kt near the surface in the NW eyewall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 As was already posted, the pressure has dropped a few mb from the previous pass. They also found low end cat 2 winds in the NW eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 The eye is starting to warm on the IR loop. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 How many feet up is that Frying Pan Tower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Well....radar is showing that moat apparent in IR now wrapping into the South side of the core which is once again void of deep convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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