WinterWolf Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: Is there that much shear out there? Can’t be SSTs..so many factors to consider. SST are great for development where it is. Or perhaps she’s just shot/peaked as others have said, and it’s degrading at this point. Still so much we just don’t know about these systems that make them so difficult to forecast...proof positive by the way it’s degrading currently. This certainly wasn’t forecast as recently as yesterday. Agree with Snowgoose....this is probably weaker than it’s current estimate at 8:00 pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: That was a generous 115mph. You could argue with what they found it’s 95-100 right now bet when it makes landfall its tropical storm. What a bust this would be 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 minute ago, zinski1990 said: bet when it makes landfall its tropical storm. What a bust this would be Or blessing 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Reminder that the strongest hurricane to hit NC was Hazel and it was 130MPH on the SC/NC border. If this were to reorganize tomorrow and hit anywhere near 120 or 125, it would be historic without a doubt. As the ridge builds over it and it crosses the gulf stream, I'm sure it will reorganize somewhat. Unsure what the ultimate landfall intensity will be however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, zinski1990 said: bet when it makes landfall its tropical storm. What a bust this would be I would be shocked if it weakened that much but it could very well be 80-85 mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Looking at the shear profile, there is a tutt that is progged to dig south of Florence in the next 6-12 hrs. This will change the 200mb wind trajectory over Florence from a line to a sideways U shape. I am not sure if this will have a positive or negative impact on Florence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, zinski1990 said: bet when it makes landfall its tropical storm. What a bust this would be You know when the admin said no sh*t posts at the beginning of the thread? This is kinda what he had in mind. Yes, it's weakening, but based on available data there is no reason to think it will weaken all the way down to a tropical storm at landfall. Unless maybe if it did some ridiculous 5 day stall. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Some of you are missing the point. Yes we have a weakening hurricane, but in return the wind field is becoming much larger. Also a stall and a 10 Ft+ storm surge can be expected when this reaches the NC coast. Category 1 or 3, we're still gonna have some really major flooding and storm surge. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 The whole NE half of the storm looks quite healthy, especially in the last few frames. if shear lets up somewhat, I don't see why it wouldn't restrengthen somewhat to a legit cat 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayson Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The whole NE half of the storm looks quite healthy, especially in the last few frames. if shear lets up somewhat, I don't see why it wouldn't restrengthen somewhat to a legit cat 3. That isn't going to happen at this latitude while running into a brick wall of a ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 46 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Wut? There is still a defined eye and a major hurricane approaching the coast. It will be a strong cat 1 to cat 2 at LF IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 11 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Some of you are missing the point. Yes we have a weakening hurricane, but in return the wind field is becoming much larger. Also a stall and a 10 Ft+ storm surge can be expected when this reaches the NC coast. Category 1 or 3, we're still gonna have some really major flooding and storm surge. Absolutely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 hour ago, GreensboroWx said: And you are basing this on what?? The eye is just covered by overcast and I believe it's reorganizing. I'm not saying it's to going to jump to a cat 5 or even a 4 but it still has to traverse across the gulf stream and many models show it holding its own or even strengthen a bit. 48 minutes ago, LVLion77 said: The gulf stream affect tends to be greatly exaggerated throughout history. If I were a betting man I would bet continued weakening until landfall. I wonder why the models continue to mishandle the intensity in this final approach ? . If you don't know what you're talking about, don't post. Can we have a storm mode or something? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 The hyperbole needs to be in check on both sides of the spectrum....phrases like “storm of a lifetime” being thrown around in the media, is premature imo; and now “making landfall as a tropical storm,” is also very premature. these are the comments that come back to Bite when used prematurely. Bittom line...if it weakens to a cat 2, the whole storm of a lifetime is going to look ridiculous. Likewise, if this pulses up overnight into a beast again, then the DOA ideas too will look foolish. Let’s see where we stand tomorrow morning??? 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Just now, WinterWolf said: The hyperbole needs to be in check on both sides of the spectrum....phrases like “storm of a lifetime” being thrown around in the media, is premature imo; and now “making landfall as a tropical storm,” is also very premature. these are the comments that come back to Bite when used prematurely. Bittom line...if it weakens to a cat 2, the whole storm of a lifetime is going to look ridiculous. Likewise, if this pulses up overnight into a beast again, then the DOA ideas too will look foolish. Let’s see where we stand tomorrow morning??? I think the surge will be comparable to Ike, but freshwater flooding maybe much more prevalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the surge will be comparable to Ike, but freshwater flooding maybe much more prevalent. Another thing, I wonder why NHC is being conservative with surge forecasts? seems like 15 ft at least would be a better option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the surge will be comparable to Ike, but freshwater flooding maybe much more prevalent. I agree Ray. the flooding will most likely be very major. Obviously if you’re in an area that gets drowned, Then This thing is gonna be a nightmare for those folks. The media just jumps the gun all the time...and who knows, maybe this thing does become a historic/lifetime event, but the degrading look right now is not what a once in a lifetime storm looks like...so I get why some are questioning some of the hype out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVLion77 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Some of you are missing the point. Yes we have a weakening hurricane, but in return the wind field is becoming much larger. Also a stall and a 10 Ft+ storm surge can be expected when this reaches the NC coast. Category 1 or 3, we're still gonna have some really major flooding and storm surge.I agree completely regarding damage factor remaining very serious and nobody should let their guard down. I think some of us get frustrated that forecasting is still in major need of improvement in terms of considering basic climatology - ie the insistence this would approach the coast at 140-150 mph at this latitude or with Irma last year nearly all forecasts dismissed the fact that land (Cuba) damages hurricanes. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: The hyperbole needs to be in check on both sides of the spectrum....phrases like “storm of a lifetime” being thrown around in the media, is premature imo; and now “making landfall as a tropical storm,” is also very premature. these are the comments that come back to Bite when used prematurely. Bittom line...if it weakens to a cat 2, the whole storm of a lifetime is going to look ridiculous. Likewise, if this pulses up overnight into a beast again, then the DOA ideas too will look foolish. Let’s see where we stand tomorrow morning??? Sandy hit NJ as a cat 1. It wasn't overhyped in the least. If anything it ended up even worse than predicted because of how damaging the surge was. I had gusts here to 85 mph maybe, but my town was still devastated by water. A near stalled hurricane on the NC/SC coast will cause horrendous surge damage over multiple tide cycles. Also, the crawl inland will result in massive rain amounts. The records in SC were broken with the Joaquin-associated rain but I wonder how close this will come. Wind won't be as big a factor, but the vast majority of damage and death the big ones cause are water related. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I agree Ray. the flooding will most likely be very major. Obviously if you’re in an area that gets drowned, Then This thing is gonna be a nightmare for those folks. The media just jumps the gun all the time...and who knows, maybe this thing does become a historic/lifetime event, but the degrading look right now is not what a once in a lifetime storm looks like...so I get why some are questioning some of the hype out there. Unless this think goes full tilt Harvey on us, which I doubt, but possible....its not going to be upper echelon. Most impressive aspect of the wind will be duration, but it won't be severe. JMO....very damaging event, nonetheless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 minute ago, LVLion77 said: I agree completely regarding damage factor remaining very serious and nobody should let their guard down. I think some of us get frustrated that forecasting is still in major need of improvement in terms of considering basic climatology - ie the insistence this would approach the coast at 140-150 mph at this latitude or with Irma last year nearly all forecasts dismissed the fact that land (Cuba) damages hurricanes. . Conditions looked favorable (and are still somewhat favorable IMO) for it to reach land as a solid Cat 3, even borderline Cat 4 a couple days ago. The storm looks too degraded now for that to take place, but those predictions are always a crap shoot. It may be more of an Isabel intensity when it reaches land, but Isabel was never remembered for wind anyway, by far it was for surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 some cold cloud tops exploding on the western eyewall now https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 I still am somewhat concerned it could ramp back up. It’s intact enough that if that shear relaxing and dry air abates it could probably get back to a high end 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I still am somewhat concerned it could ramp back up. It’s intact enough that if that shear relaxing and dry air abates it could probably get back to a high end 3 I'd be stunned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 On the latest nw to se pass through the storm, recon only found max FLIGHT level wind of 85 kts. The core wind has really cratered. A bit of shear advecting dry air into the core, when the core is already having ERC issues, can really do some damage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: some cold cloud tops exploding on the western eyewall now https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir Major improvements the last hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd be stunned. My thought a couple of days ago was it would be like a Fran or a little stronger when it hit, now I think it'll be a Cat 2, Isabel-like. The much slower motion will result in a lot more damage though than Isabel caused in the Carolinas (Isabel was worse further north in the Chesapeake from surge) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: some cold cloud tops exploding on the western eyewall now https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I still am somewhat concerned it could ramp back up. It’s intact enough that if that shear relaxing and dry air abates it could probably get back to a high end 3 Fellas, if it’s me this thing is starting to look very healthy again on the last loop. Deep convection wrapping around and the eye looks much better overall. Nighttime is the opportune time for this thing to get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: some cold cloud tops exploding on the western eyewall now https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir Yes sir....if that persists...look out! She definitely has not behaved as predicted, does she have a few more surprises up her sleeve??? Perhaps?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Fellas, if it’s me this thing is starting to look very healthy again on the last loop. Deep convection wrapping around and the eye looks much better overall. Nighttime is the opportune time for this thing to get going. If the HWRF is right it’s best chance may be noon-midnight tomorrow. It correctly predicted today’s weakening somewhat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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