Cooper08 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, hazwoper said: the 18Z NAM (yes I kn ow its the NAM) is an absolute nightmare taking the eye right on the coast around Wilmington around 39 hrs then paralleling the coast while slowly weakening all the way down to Charleston at 84 hrs. 6pm gfs takes inland NC the deepest of any recent runs. Doesn’t run down coast of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I have a hard time this storm is gonna restrengthen even a little. It looks terrible right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 9 minutes ago, Cooper08 said: 6pm gfs takes inland NC the deepest of any recent runs. Doesn’t run down coast of SC. Quickly loses its strength It also doesn't stall for a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 27 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Hurricane Josh quit chasing this storm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 37 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I have a hard time this storm is gonna restrengthen even a little. It looks terrible right now. Well considering the shear is weakening by the minute and the gulf stream is still in play I wouldnt count it out. There is a window over night for it to get stronger. Look at Harvey last year, it doesn't take a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I think the large circulation and expanded vortex / core structure goes against conventional reintensification. Deep convection and improvement of the core over the Gulf Stream could help to drop pressure again, but it would probably not be able to retighten the core gradient enough for a substantial increase in vortex wind speeds. Perhaps it maintains a steady state longer. However, this is inconsequential to the greatest shoreline threat. I am already bought into the massive surge threat Florence poses due to it having already been an intense hurricane, then developing a large wind field in the northern semicircle of the surface circulation and pushing fetch perpendicular to the Carolina shoreline. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: I have a hard time this storm is gonna restrengthen even a little. It looks terrible right now. I agree, looks like a mess right now. Must be a dry air intrusion. There is some deep convection firing though. It’s far from DOA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Yea, the eye is gone now. It's not DOA, but I don't believe it will be close to a major hurricane by the time it even reaches land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I can't help to think that Florence still has a trick or two up its sleeve and has yet to show all of its cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 13 minutes ago, NYCGreg said: Yea, the eye is gone now. It's not DOA, but I don't believe it will be close to a major hurricane by the time it even reaches land. It won't really matter, the effects will be the same. I don't know what kind of hurricane people were expecting at 32-35N, it's holding pretty well. The outflow to the north and northeast looks fantastic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Looking like this will be somewhere between a Fran and Isabel intensity level coming in, but the larger size and fetch will mean a greater surge threat, in addition to the slower speed. The eye becoming less distinct and issues with shear/dry air mean to me that intensity is leveling off and may decrease as it comes near shore and especially as it slows and interacts with land. I’d guess Cat 2 somewhere when the eye wall makes it onshore. The surge though will still be a horrible issue given the slow forward speed and large size. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 looking at the latest ir radar there is a big area of convection firing up on the southeast side of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Recon just made their first pass through the core. Even in the stronger northeast quad, the top flight level wind was only 101 kts and the top SFMR wind was only 79 kts. The wind field has become large, but the core wind has really come down quite a bit. Update: Central pressure is 956 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 36 minutes ago, NYCGreg said: Yea, the eye is gone now. It's not DOA, but I don't believe it will be close to a major hurricane by the time it even reaches land. And you are basing this on what?? The eye is just covered by overcast and I believe it's reorganizing. I'm not saying it's to going to jump to a cat 5 or even a 4 but it still has to traverse across the gulf stream and many models show it holding its own or even strengthen a bit. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navvet8992 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernVAwx Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, navvet8992 said: It’s been doing this for hours today. Every track is updated slightly north and it still goes North. Because of this I’m thinking the SW curve is gonna start looking less and less impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 48 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It won't really matter, the effects will be the same. I don't know what kind of hurricane people were expecting at 32-35N, it's holding pretty well. The outflow to the north and northeast looks fantastic. Truth. This is still a dangerous juggernaut but weenies let their passions get the best of them. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVLion77 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 And you are basing this on what?? The eye is just covered by overcast and I believe it's reorganizing. I'm not saying it's to going to jump to a cat 5 or even a 4 but it still has to traverse across the gulf stream and many models show it holding its own or even strengthen a bit. The gulf stream affect tends to be greatly exaggerated throughout history. If I were a betting man I would bet continued weakening until landfall. I wonder why the models continue to mishandle the intensity in this final approach ?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 hour ago, NYCGreg said: Yea, the eye is gone now. It's not DOA, but I don't believe it will be close to a major hurricane by the time it even reaches land. Wut? There is still a defined eye and a major hurricane approaching the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, LVLion77 said: The gulf stream affect tends to be greatly exaggerated throughout history. If I were a betting man I would bet continued weakening until landfall. I wonder why the models continue to mishandle the intensity in this final approach ? . I see your point...by the tine it reaches the Gulf Stream it’s already interacting with land somewhat...even if the water was 35C would it make a difference? Not sure. Someone here knows this answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Wut? There is still a defined eye and a major hurricane approaching the coast. not really. It has had a rugged eye all day. ERC? I think it would have done that by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Was not expecting the strong sheared look. A week ago Florence rapidly deepened to a cat4 in a much worse environment. Models still really aren't that good at predicting how shear will effect a system. If this keeps up, it will look like Irene at landfall 945mb Cat1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Amped said: Was not expecting the strong sheared look. A week ago Florence rapidly deepened to a cat4 in a much worse environment. Models still really aren't that good at predicting how shear will effect a system. If this keeps up, it will look like Irene at landfall 945mb Cat1. strong major hurricanes just don't last above 30 latitude. I've seen the same thing happen many times. It's rare 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 minute ago, zinski1990 said: strong major hurricanes just don't last above 30 latitude. I've seen the same thing happen many times. It's rare Unless they are named Ophelia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Amped said: Was not expecting the strong sheared look. A week ago Florence rapidly deepened to a cat4 in a much worse environment. Models still really aren't that good at predicting how shear will effect a system. If this keeps up, it will look like Irene at landfall 945mb Cat1. There wasn’t supposed to be any shear when it came into this area(at least not any that would disrupt the system at least), conditions looked very very good for strengthening/or at least maintaining it. So the modeling a couple days ago didn’t even foresee this shear issue on the system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hickory Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Would a weaker storm cause a different track? Like more west after landfall than moving SW. Or it doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: There wasn’t supposed to be any shear when it came into this area(at least not any that would disrupt the system at least), conditions looked very very good for strengthening/or at least maintaining it. So the modeling a couple days ago didn’t even foresee this shear issue on the system. Is there that much shear out there? Can’t be SSTs..so many factors to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 That was a generous 115mph. You could argue with what they found it’s 95-100 right now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Yah the models have really sucked with this one no denying it. I mean they didn't expect sudden cat 4 strengthening, a sudden path change stall out near coast, models still cant key in on area it hits first (northern NC coast all the way down to southern sc coast within 2 days of arrival), sudden weakening etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, Amped said: Unless they are named Ophelia They only explode north of 30N when they go out to sea. You know how it works. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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