TPAwx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, ag3 said: FV3 GFS, NAM, RGEM and Regular GFS are all landfall in the same or similar spot now. FV3 has a 30-36 hour slow crawl from near ILM to NC/SC border. Really impactful scenario for piling in water and then dumping on top of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Yes, in this way Florence reminds me of Hurricane Ike (when he was in the Gulf of Mexico). Latent Heat Energy being converted into increasing area rather than pressure falls close to center. Ike was a strong cat 2 before it hit Texas but was comparable to a cat 4/5 in terms of storm surge/coastal flooding This scenario if probably more costly in terms of damage than a tightly wound cat 4 or even 5. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Mostly agree, though Florence hasn't suffered what Ike did -- a total inner core disruption when it passed over the Yucatan. It never really recovered from that. The surge on this one is going to be ridiculous because of the insane fetch, strength and duration. The radius of hurricane winds is getting a bit out of hand. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 10 minutes ago, ag3 said: FV3 GFS, NAM, RGEM and Regular GFS are all landfall in the same or similar spot now. 12z GGEM and 12z UKMET also with landfall in the same or similar spot. Model consensus finally building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 If history has taught us anything it's that integrated kinetic energy is a better discriminator for storm surge than the maximum wind speed. And Florence has a lot of IKE right now. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, hlcater said: I dont think the eye is 60-70 miles wide. It may look like it is, but recon did a little loop inside the eyewall. Unless that wasn't what you were using to judge size. Does anyone have a vortex message? Microwave imaging sure seems to look like its headed toward and eye that big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 59 minutes ago, Justicebork said: GFS says nice knowing you, Wilmington and Jacksonville; and you'll love the new New Bern and Kinston. It finally starts meandering SW towards N Myrtle at 72. Yeah the skill just isnt there for the models to get this stall/turn down to the mile....for a lot of us it will come down to now casting the center, if the center on the GFS was just 50-75 miles further NW before it stops it would be the difference for instance of you seeing gust to 40-50 versus gust to 70+ and that would greatly change up the power outages and damage from trees on homes situation inland and her wind field is liable to be rather large to begin with...vice versa though if it slows stalls 50-75 miles sooner then that would lessen the impact inland by a ton and even on the coast some as well, though the long duration fetch will still produce insane surges. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
f2tornado Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 14 minutes ago, bdgwx said: Florence has 100 TJ of kinetic energy now. For perspective, Katrina was about 120 TJ at landfall and Sandy was around 140 TJ. Florence is seemingly increasing wind radii and IKE is likely increasing with time. Max winds are likely to decrease on final approach but, like Katrina, the wall of water is built up and the coastal bites will magnify it. Another comparison, the peak surge for Hugo 1989 was just over 20 feet. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 33 minutes ago, hlcater said: I dont think the eye is 60-70 miles wide. It may look like it is, but recon did a little loop inside the eyewall. Unless that wasn't what you were using to judge size. Does anyone have a vortex message? Ah, you're right, didn't see the loop. My bad for not double checking -- 25-30 looks about right based on the most recent pass. Inner eyewall looks like it is gone finally. Still multiple wind maxes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 33 minutes ago, bugalou said: Microwave imaging sure seems to look like its headed toward and eye that big. Do you happen to have links to some current microwave imagery? The most recent I could find is almost 10 hours old. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 30 minutes ago, f2tornado said: For perspective, Katrina was about 120 TJ at landfall and Sandy was around 140 TJ. Florence is seemingly increasing wind radii and IKE is likely increasing with time. Max winds are likely to decrease on final approach but, like Katrina, the wall of water is built up and the coastal bites will magnify it. Another comparison, the peak surge for Hugo 1989 was just over 20 feet. Hugo had an IKE just under 100TJ at landfall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 hour ago, csnavywx said: That shallow wind shear just below the outflow level on the southwest side stays there until late tonight or tomorrow morning on the GFS, then abates. Might have another opportunity for strengthening then. Should be passing over gulf stream as well, could provide a boost in intensity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 12Z SHIPS RI probability is 5% for 20 kts in 12 hours. It is essentially 0% for all other time frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 The Euro ends up almost exactly in the same position at 12z Friday as the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Models are now tightly clustered, showing a very slow landfall around Cape Fear/Wilmington. The IR loop shows Florence's core continuing to slowly deteriorate. The eye is now losing its shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 New advisory out. Cat 3 now. 125mph winds and 948mb. Seems like this has a mind of it's own. It strengthened rapidly a day early. Nhc keeps forecasting an increase but it held steady and now weakened. Regardless storm surge and flooding will be extreme with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Models are now tightly clustered, showing a very slow landfall around Cape Fear/Wilmington. The IR loop shows Florence's core continuing to slowly deteriorate at the moment. The eye is now losing its shape. The southerly shear is getting to it. Euro never fully goes over land. Goes back over water and slowly crawls along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf_florence.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PressureDrop2017 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 hour ago, f2tornado said: For perspective, Katrina was about 120 TJ at landfall and Sandy was around 140 TJ. Florence is seemingly increasing wind radii and IKE is likely increasing with time. Is this correct regarding the intensity of 'superstorm' Sandy, because other sources, including NOAA, give the kinetic energy including TS as topping out at 300+ terajoules http://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/hwind/timeseries/IkeTimeSeries.html because of the massive size of 'superstorm' Sandy. What's the reason for the discrepancy with the 140TJ figure, maybe because there could be differing definitions of kinetic energy EDIT: Or, alternatively, talking about the kinetic energy 'at landfall' of Sandy as having been in Cuba... which is true but misleading because of the increased size after heading out into the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 12Z ECWMF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf_florence.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Euro pretty consistent with 00Z - makes landfall actually, on Cape Fear around 10 am Friday, then scrapes along the SC coast down to Charleston over the next 48 hours. Brutal for the coastline if this verifies. Edit: after taking a 48 hour ride SW right along the coast, impacting Myrtle Beach and then coming ashore again right on top of Charleston as a likely cat 1/2 storm, Florence then goes on an inland run towards Augusta, GA, then Asheville. It's nearly identical to the 12Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Euro pretty consistent with 00Z - makes landfall actually, on Cape Fear around 10 am Friday, then scrapes along the SC coast down to Charleston over the next 48 hours. Brutal for the coastline if this verifies. That would be over 48 hours straight of hurricane force winds in many places.... ughh that is terrible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 21 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: New advisory out. Cat 3 now. 125mph winds and 948mb. Seems like this has a mind of it's own. It strengthened rapidly a day early. Nhc keeps forecasting an increase but it held steady and now weakened. Regardless storm surge and flooding will be extreme with this Its peaked....been saying that for awhile now. Not that that means much in the grand scheme of things... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 The 12z Euro was actually a little further west and north this run compared to the 00z. But the impacts remain the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its peaked....been saying that for awhile now. Not that that means much in the grand scheme of things... I still have some concerns it could intensity tonight and tomorrow once that SW shear nose moves out and it goes over the Gulf Stream. There was also less dry air visible on the WV sat when I looked this morning as it continued further west 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: I still have some concerns it could intensity tonight and tomorrow once that SW shear nose moves out and it goes over the Gulf Stream. There was also less dry air visible on the WV sat when I looked this morning as it continued further west Yes, there is still a small window.. you are correct. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 What a difference in a few hours in regards to the size of the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 26 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Euro pretty consistent with 00Z - makes landfall actually, on Cape Fear around 10 am Friday, then scrapes along the SC coast down to Charleston over the next 48 hours. Brutal for the coastline if this verifies. Edit: after taking a 48 hour ride SW right along the coast, impacting Myrtle Beach and then coming ashore again right on top of Charleston as a likely cat 1/2 storm, Florence then goes on an inland run towards Augusta, GA, then Asheville. It's nearly identical to the 12Z GFS. Pretty amazing consistency in track through landfall on NC, then the slow crawl to Charleston, then inland to Atlanta then Asheville for the Euro, UK and GFS. After days of huge discrepancies after landfall, I'm not sure whether to believe it. And the CMC is the same through about Charleston (then drifts down to Jacksonville as a weak looking TS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its peaked....been saying that for awhile now. Not that that means much in the grand scheme of things... I honestly thought we could see some strengthening again but seems drier air around the storm and a somewhat disorganized inner core have kept this from happening. Seems like ever since that ewrc it just hasn't recovered well. Plus this is such a large storm so it's energy is being spread over a large area instead of focused at the core 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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