NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, OSUmetstud said: There's always a bit of parallax error on the SAT overlays. I know where the other data is, but I also didn't think a 3mb increase in pressure from one pass to the next made sense, especially given current IR presentation. Perhaps this is the start of another expansion in the wind field, thus a temporary relaxation in the pressure gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 12 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Winds generating the majority of the damage diminished over the last 48hrs when this stall/meandering solution became predominant. It's shifted to a catastrophic surge/flooding storm. And by no means should the winds be ignored. A Cat 3 storm will cause severe damage. Places in NC/SC will see 12-24"+ of rain with no where for that to drain for a several days. Not good. Agree 100 percent. I know what Anthony meant, but it was poorly articulated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I know where the other data is, but I also didn't think a 3mb increase in pressure from one pass to the next made sense, especially given current IR presentation. Perhaps this is the start of another expansion in the wind field, thus a temporary relaxation in the pressure gradient. Could just bit instrument error (on the first or second dropsonde) I'm not sure what the standard accuracy is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I think the duration of the onshore wind is also something that shouldn't be ignored or downplayed. A slow moving cane with a large wind field is going to push a lot of water towards the coast. ....and not allow it to leave.....high tide after high tide... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: Could just bit instrument error (on the first or second dropsonde) I'm not sure what the standard accuracy is. Looks like they are headed in for another pass, this time from the Southeast. Should get a good idea as to what's going on in the NE quadrant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 This storm loves its ERCs. The outer eyewall in the last MIMIC image is massive. That thing has to be like 50-60 miles wide. We could have a giant truck tire by the end of the day or tonight. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, csnavywx said: This storm loves its ERCs. The outer eyewall in the last MIMIC image is massive. That thing has to be like 50-60 miles wide. We could have a giant truck tire by the end of the day or tonight. The surge potential is massive already... additional ERC's is just going to make it even more dangerous and obviously will see greater wind expansion for both TS and Hurricane force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, csnavywx said: This storm loves its ERCs. The outer eyewall in the last MIMIC image is massive. That thing has to be like 50-60 miles wide. We could have a giant truck tire by the end of the day or tonight. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/MESO_band.php?sat=G16&lat=30N&lon=71W&band=08&length=180 great view from the water vapor loop here just to see how much it has expanded over a few hours .... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catdaddyfalcon15 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, csnavywx said: This storm loves its ERCs. The outer eyewall in the last MIMIC image is massive. That thing has to be like 50-60 miles wide. We could have a giant truck tire by the end of the day or tonight. seriously, i feel like its undergoing nonstop ERCs for the last 2 days already. She's clearly been bulking up for the big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/MESO_band.php?sat=G16&lat=30N&lon=71W&band=08&length=180 great view from the water vapor loop here just to see how much it has expanded over a few hours .... Beautiful outflow. Have to believe we see some strengthening today....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Is a larger eyewall more susceptible to ERCs than a smaller one? Or does that matter at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, Cold Rain said: Is a larger eyewall more susceptible to ERCs than a smaller one? Or does that matter at all? The opposite is true actually 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: The opposite is true actually Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 There’s also a syntopic scale gradient wind threat up into the Mid Atlantic due to Florence’s large circulation and 1028 mb HP over ME, causing persistent onshore flow which will also likely produce coastal flooding and heavy rain well away from the center—Eastern VA, Eastern MD, Eastern NC and DE all appear at risk in this regard. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, Cooper08 said: What’s up with this crankyweatherguy? Is he legit or just always cranky and tries to play the contrarian side? Thanks 1 minute ago, Gravity Wave said: He's very knowledgeable and good to follow as things are developing in real time but I think his forecasts do have a bit of a contrarian streak. banter thread please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: The saving grace will be if the storm stalls just offshore and weakens as it moves southwest. Perhaps Snow88 is taking the perspective of North Carolina Piedmont and upstate folks (like myself) that will likely be spared Hurricane Fran-like effects. Latest forecasted storm track however would savage the coast...with catastrophic consequences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I can't help but draw some similarities to Hurricane Ike back in 2008. Don't get me wrong, it's a totally different setup and situation. But in regards to the EWRC, after Ike went through Cuba, he grew enormously and kept undergoing EWRCs seemingly more interested in growing in size rather than focusing on his windspeed. Hence why we wound up with a Cat 2 hurricane with Cat 4-5 storm surge. Florence definitely seems more interested in growing its wind field rather than it's speed, which means we are looking at some scary storm surge potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jfreebird Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Can someone tell me why it is loosing some of its reds and oranges on the IR to the north and NW of the storm? was looking at this IR loop for the past hour https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-14-96-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Looks like they got ~100kts in the NE eyewall on the last pass. Doesn't look like we have a dropsonde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Looks like they got ~100kts in the NE eyewall on the last pass. Doesn't look like we have a dropsonde.Dropsondes don’t show up till like 20-30 minutes post drop. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 In the 11 a.m. NHC discussion: The shortwave trough over the southern Plains seen in water vapor imagery could end up being a significant factor as it rounds the narrow ridge over the Tennessee Valley and is expected to erode the ridge along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast on days 3-5. At this time, little change has been made to the NHC track forecast, which remains very close to the aforementioned consensus aids through 72 hours. Would this mean a possible north or NW adjustment of the tracks for days 3-5? Just looking for some explanation as to what the result of the trough eroding the ridge would have. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 945.2MB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowCountryCat Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, ragtop50 said: In the 11 a.m. NHC discussion: The shortwave trough over the southern Plains seen in water vapor imagery could end up being a significant factor as it rounds the narrow ridge over the Tennessee Valley and is expected to erode the ridge along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast on days 3-5. At this time, little change has been made to the NHC track forecast, which remains very close to the aforementioned consensus aids through 72 hours. Would this mean a possible north or NW adjustment of the tracks for days 3-5? Just looking for some explanation as to what the result of the trough eroding the ridge would have. I believe they are referring to the possibility of the southern portion of the ridge that blocks Flo's western/SW progression to be eroded, allowing a path into SC/GA a la what the Euro shows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Looks like they got ~100kts in the NE eyewall on the last pass. Doesn't look like we have a dropsonde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: Any reason you removed my last post showing the exact same thing you just posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Any reason you removed my last post showing the exact same thing you just posted? i didn't remove any post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, mappy said: i didn't remove any post? Someone did. Oh well. I literally just posted the dropsonde and then it was gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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