ncskywarn Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Landfall at 126 near or just North of Charleston Moving NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 GFS just pulled the same south hook that the 12z ECMWF did. Um.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: GFS just pulled the same south hook that the 12z ECMWF did. Um.... Good thing they cancelled those evacuations down there. What a terrible predicament for forecasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernVAwx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Could anyone provide some insight as to what the big change was that resulted in most models not being able to bring the storm inland? I know steering currents will be weak if even present, but how would it move the storm south then in? Very weird modeled setup indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 12 minutes ago, SouthernVAwx said: Could anyone provide some insight as to what the big change was that resulted in most models not being able to bring the storm inland? I know steering currents will be weak if even present, but how would it move the storm south then in? Very weird modeled setup indeed. Read the thread, big man ridge. Can’t shove the little circular blue into the monster red umbrella. Red wins, blocks the little blue’s path. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, SouthernVAwx said: Could anyone provide some insight as to what the big change was that resulted in most models not being able to bring the storm inland? I know steering currents will be weak if even present, but how would it move the storm south then in? Very weird modeled setup indeed. I wouldn’t say that’s set in stone yet. It’s going to take a while to slow a storm of that intensity down. And that’s probably a good part of why that wacky turn is not reflected in the NHC forecast. They also cannot windshield wipe with each model run. Florence is going to create its own upper atmosphere environment. It’s extremely rare for a storm of that magnitude to turn SW in the tropics let alone the mid latitudes. Personally I just don’t buy it and I would stick with a landfall around Wilmington 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 GFS brings Florence back at D9. Has it redeveloping and landfall on FL/GA line on day 13 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
todayisagoodday Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Is it possible to show what the temperatures are for the gulf stream as a background to Florence traversing over as a gif? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, ncskywarn said: GFS brings Florence back at D9. Has it redeveloping and landfall on FL/GA line on day 13 lol Until it gets blasted away from a big cold front. Looks chilly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, todayisagoodday said: Is it possible to show what the temperatures are for the gulf stream as a background to Florence traversing over as a gif? NCEP Hurricane Models have it. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical-guidance-model-storm.php 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PressureDrop2017 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 The GFS 18Z model looks like the cartoon physics of a bouncy-ball hitting North Carolina and rebounding onto South Carolina. Or as if calculated to be the most insulting and disastrous path for South Carolinans who had thought they would be spared. Intuitively looking at that track people would say "that's absurd", but I guess there are some unusually complex systems besides the cyclone, affecting this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 12 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I wouldn’t say that’s set in stone yet. It’s going to take a while to slow a storm of that intensity down. And that’s probably a good part of why that wacky turn is not reflected in the NHC forecast. They also cannot windshield wipe with each model run. Florence is going to create its own upper atmosphere environment. It’s extremely rare for a storm of that magnitude to turn SW in the tropics let alone the mid latitudes. Personally I just don’t buy it and I would stick with a landfall around Wilmington Rare yes. But it's not uncommon for hurricanes to do loops off the ec. Most of the time it's just way off shore. My guess is models see a weakness in the ridge to bring it nw and as the trough deepens out west it strengthens the ridge and pulls it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, PressureDrop2017 said: The GFS 18Z model looks like the cartoon physics of a bouncy-ball hitting North Carolina and rebounding onto South Carolina. Or as if calculated to be the most insulting and disastrous path for South Carolinans who had thought they would be spared. Intuitively looking at that track people would say "that's absurd", but I guess there are some unusually complex systems besides the cyclone, affecting this one Look at the 12Z Euro very similar. Except the Euro take it SW then landfall near the GA/SC border then takes it WNW to north of Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Strong convection in the southern band. Even looks like it is creating a moat of subsidence outside SW portion of the eyewall. Even though Florence has a decent-sized eye, don't be surprised at another ERC cycle and an even larger eye. The current eye also does look to be contracting a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 11 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Strong convection in the southern band. Even looks like it is creating a moat of subsidence outside SW portion of the eyewall. Even though Florence has a decent-sized eye, don't be surprised at another ERC cycle and an even larger eye. The current eye also does look to be contracting a bit. Maybe I live under a rock but this storm is the first time I have ever seen this phenomenon, occurred at one point last evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 26 minutes ago, todayisagoodday said: Is it possible to show what the temperatures are for the gulf stream as a background to Florence traversing over as a gif? Yes. All 3 operational cyclone models do this. You'll find the coupled SST products at the following links. HWRF: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/HWRF/ HMON: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/HMON/ COAMPS: https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/tc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 It's pretty hard to tell what's going on with core dynamics from an IR satellite. This pass was from like an hour ago: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 11 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Strong convection in the southern band. Even looks like it is creating a moat of subsidence outside SW portion of the eyewall. Even though Florence has a decent-sized eye, don't be surprised at another ERC cycle and an even larger eye. The current eye also does look to be contracting a bit. I think we may be seeing some dry air issues. There really isn’t anything screaming weakening right now. Outflow looks good so shear is light and ocean temps are steadily warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 FV3 never fully comes ashore near Wilmington then stalls/mini loops then down the coast to near Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, Dunkman said: It's pretty hard to tell what's going on with core dynamics from an IR satellite. This pass was from like an hour ago: Bad news if that inner stuff goes away and the new eye consolidates to the diameter of that moat. That would certainly make it harder to have top end wind speeds but would massively enlarge the area that could get eyewall. And that might really matter if it stalls offshore like this afternoon’s global suggest may happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 FV3 then cuts across SC, up around WV and ends up over DC metro Tuesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldfumed Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 23 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Strong convection in the southern band. Even looks like it is creating a moat of subsidence outside SW portion of the eyewall. Even though Florence has a decent-sized eye, don't be surprised at another ERC cycle and an even larger eye. The current eye also does look to be contracting a bit. What exactly is a moat in a hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 What exactly is a moat in a hurricane? We use "moat" to describe the area of subsidence that occurs due to an outer rain band intensifying to the point of forming an outer concentric ring of convection or "outer eyewall". This isn't quite there yet based on earlier microwave, however, clearly there is a strong outer band right now causing that subsidence and it could lead to concentric walls if it continues to organize. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 13 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: Bad news if that inner stuff goes away and the new eye consolidates to the diameter of that moat. That would certainly make it harder to have top end wind speeds but would massively enlarge the area that could get eyewall. And that might really matter if it stalls offshore like this afternoon’s global suggest may happen. That outer ring doesn’t really look like an OEW to me. Too pulsy in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 The eye in Florence has been strange all day. Very lope sided at times and chunky looking. For a cat 4, it's internal structure has been really disorganized. Curious if we will see it intensify more or more so hold where it is now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Not sure if this was posted already but if anyone is interested Matt Lanza put together a list comprised of meteorologists, storm chasers etc. to be able to track Florence on Twitter. https://twitter.com/mattlanza/lists/florence 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Florence is looking pretty chunky on satellite. Been gorging on all that meaty OHC. Wouldn't worry about the satellite appearance too much. This is probably 125-130knots atm. It also has some time to complete another EWRC and expand even more if it decides to do so. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Explosion of convection in the SW eyewall over the past 30 minutes and that band others have been talking about seems to be maintaining strength. Very interested to see what recon finds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I'm curious to see the early effects of this system tomorrow. I recall Ike was already causing surge issues hundreds of miles offshore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 18z HWRF came in a tick stronger than 12z with eventual LF in extreme NE SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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