jbenedet Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 On 9/14/2018 at 12:25 PM, drscottsmith said: Been following the WECT livestream since yesterday (out of Wilmington). On their radar, eye seems to be moving clearly SW, and once it passes the Oak Island area, it looks like the eye will be back over water (a fair distance offshore) for a period of time. What will this do for strengthening before a second possible landfall in SC? Expand Slows the rate of weakening dramatically. 0z Euro shows a minimal cane down to Eastern SC, through tomorrow a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Damn. MYR might be getting hit hard. NWS forecast this afternoon has gusts to 83kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Frictional torquing likely playing a part in keeping it offshore. The torque component can become dominant in such weak steering flow and when running at a shallow angle to the coast (as Florence has). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Almost looks to be moving due South now, if not even slightly SSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 On 9/14/2018 at 12:39 PM, csnavywx said: Frictional torquing likely playing a part in keeping it offshore. The torque component can become dominant in such weak steering flow and when running at a shallow angle to the coast (as Florence has). Expand How far South can this really get before it moves West? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 The outermost bands are reaching all the way up to the the Ocean City, MD area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Banging up against the high to the north - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 On 9/14/2018 at 12:54 PM, NJwx85 said: The outermost bands are reaching all the way up to the the Ocean City, MD area. Expand What surprises me most is I don’t see many talking about the moderate to major coastal flooding expected all the way up to MD. That’s incredible given that center of Florence is over 300 miles from these locations in the Mid Atlantic. We’re looking at over 500 miles of coastline with moderate to locally major coastal flooding. This and the prolific rainfall will be Florence’s legacy. https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=AKQ https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VAZ524&warncounty=VAC700&firewxzone=VAZ524&local_place1=2 Miles WNW Newport News / Williamsburg Intl Airport VA&product1=Coastal+Flood+Warning&lat=37.1547&lon=-76.5391 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 On 9/14/2018 at 1:06 PM, jbenedet said: What surprises me most is I don’t see many talking about the moderate the major coastal flooding expected all the way up to MD. That’s incredible given the Florence is over 300 miles from these locations in the Mid Atlantic. We’re looking at over 500 miles of coastline with moderate to locally major coastal flooding. This and the prolific rainfall will be Florence’s legacy. https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=AKQ https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VAZ524&warncounty=VAC700&firewxzone=VAZ524&local_place1=2 Miles WNW Newport News / Williamsburg Intl Airport VA&product1=Coastal+Flood+Warning&lat=37.1547&lon=-76.5391 Expand Well up into the Chesapeake Bay. This is just one example. Some coastal flooding is occurring as far North as the Jersey shore and some of the rain might actually make it into Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 On 9/14/2018 at 1:06 PM, jbenedet said: What surprises me most is I don’t see many talking about the moderate to major coastal flooding expected all the way up to MD. That’s incredible given that center of Florence is over 300 miles from these locations in the Mid Atlantic. We’re looking at over 500 miles of coastline with moderate to locally major coastal flooding. This and the prolific rainfall will be Florence’s legacy. https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=AKQ https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VAZ524&warncounty=VAC700&firewxzone=VAZ524&local_place1=2 Miles WNW Newport News / Williamsburg Intl Airport VA&product1=Coastal+Flood+Warning&lat=37.1547&lon=-76.5391 Expand the news up here has been harping on it quite a bit. coastal flood watches out for tonight into the weekend. Ocean City mayor was on the radio this morning talking about their efforts to help against erosion should there be any surge issues, etc. Our governor declared a state of emergency earlier this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 beautiful shot this AM - the cloud field is quite large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Papa Joe Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 On 9/14/2018 at 12:38 PM, SnowGoose69 said: Damn. MYR might be getting hit hard. NWS forecast this afternoon has gusts to 83kts Expand Live reports show the offshore wind at MYR has the ocean pushed way back (extra wide beach) with no significant waves due to the offshore wind flow. The ocean is about as calm as can be. When the center of circulation gets south of MYR, it'll get a 'extra' surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 You can see the training lines from hell starting to organize on the east side of the storm just like Harvey. Next 48 hrs are going to be really ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 On 9/14/2018 at 1:20 PM, Amped said: You can see the training lines from hell starting to organize on the east side of the storm just like Harvey. Next 48 hrs are going to be really ugly. Expand would you be able to post that image?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Florence might wobble right over the Wilmington, NC radar site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 On 9/14/2018 at 1:21 PM, gosaints said: https://nc.water.usgs.gov/realtime/rainfall.php The totals already! Expand Use caution with the USGS rapid deployment gauges that are listed. They use tipping buckets and are likely being affects by the wind, therein produce artificially higher rainfall amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 On 9/14/2018 at 1:21 PM, gosaints said: https://nc.water.usgs.gov/realtime/rainfall.php The totals already! Expand anything over 8" should be tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 On 9/14/2018 at 1:22 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Use caution with the USGS rapid deployment gauges that are listed. They use tipping buckets and are likely being affects by the wind, therein produce artificially higher rainfall amounts. Expand Tipping bucket gauges tend to be biased low in heavy rain events. Is there some aspect of these gauges you're aware of that would cause this? Or wind-induced tips? Edit: Just saw the post above about the wind effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Cat 1 is still a dangerous storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawayanda Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 This livestream is showing a good amount of debris and trees down in Wilmington https://livestormchasing.com/stream/charles.peek Edit: this is the guy who shot the video of the roof in the post above... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Florence had the 3rd lowest barometric pressure ever recorded for a landfalling U.S. category 1 hurricane south of 40N. #1....942 mb Sandy........... 2012 #2....952 mb Irene............ 2011 #3....958 mb Florence....... 2018 #4....963 mb Lili................. 2003 #5....966 mb Isaac..............2011 http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E23.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 On 9/14/2018 at 1:35 PM, wawayanda said: This livestream is showing a good amount of debris and trees down in Wilmington https://livestormchasing.com/stream/charles.peek Edit: this is the guy who shot the video of the roof in the post above... Expand Ok this is what NOT to do in the middle of a hurricane..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 On 9/14/2018 at 1:45 PM, hazwoper said: Ok this is what NOT to do in the middle of a hurricane..... Expand Yeah, turned it on and saw that immediately. Jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 On 9/14/2018 at 1:45 PM, hazwoper said: Ok this is what NOT to do in the middle of a hurricane..... Expand I saw that live. Then the wind gusts started up and fortunately the guy finally came down off the ladder. Looking at the streams this morning, there are just tons and tons of pine debris all over the roads and highways. Now I know why NC posters here have talked about "the smell of pine"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 On 9/14/2018 at 1:54 PM, Hurricane Agnes said: I saw that live. Then the wind gusts started up and fortunately the guy finally came down off the ladder. Looking at the streams this morning, there are just tons and tons of pine debris all over the roads and highways. Now I know why NC posters here have talked about "the smell of pine"! Expand I'll play devil's advocate here. If a branch was about to come down on my house and I thought there was a lull in the storm, I might run out too to trim a limb before it crashes into my roof. Is it safe? No. Do I recommend it? No. But I can understand the logic a bit, despite the dangerous nature of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 On 9/14/2018 at 1:21 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Florence might wobble right over the Wilmington, NC radar site. Expand Yeah, it looks like the dome's wind rating is about to be tested by that incoming band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hillaritron Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 The Eastern pines that are so common along the Carolina coast are also tremendously prone to losing limbs or coming down in big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighNC Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Wind picking up in NRaleigh. Not much rain yet. I have scraps of trees down in my yard, but it really has been better than expected so far (knock on wood). Chickens not laying though. Ominous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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