the ghost of leroy Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 On 9/13/2018 at 9:55 PM, Kendall said: NHC really whiffed on this one. Cat 3/4 at landfall a couple days ago and basically barely a Cat 1 now? Swing and miss big time. Expand Track forecast was pretty good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 On 9/13/2018 at 9:42 PM, WeatherNovice said: Can you point me to your source for this? I missed it.....thanks Expand https://twitter.com/angelafritz/status/1040346782801256449 https://twitter.com/afreedma/status/1040346725091819520 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 On 9/13/2018 at 9:55 PM, Kendall said: NHC really whiffed on this one. Cat 3/4 at landfall a couple days ago and basically barely a Cat 1 now? Swing and miss big time. Expand To be fair, everyone is at the mercy of model output to some extent. Edit: also, where are you coming up with barely a category one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 On 9/13/2018 at 9:55 PM, Kendall said: NHC really whiffed on this one. Cat 3/4 at landfall a couple days ago and basically barely a Cat 1 now? Swing and miss big time. Expand I'd love to hear your forecast a couple days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 On 9/13/2018 at 9:55 PM, Kendall said: NHC really whiffed on this one. Cat 3/4 at landfall a couple days ago and basically barely a Cat 1 now? Swing and miss big time. Expand They did the best they could, it just goes to show how difficult it is to get a major above 30N. Hugo, Fran and Hazel were rare animals indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boo radley Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 It's a 955 mb monster with vast size and clouds shooting up around center...yup, barely cat one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 On 9/13/2018 at 9:39 PM, thunderwolf said: You mentioned the bad things, so I will point out a couple of good things regarding potential surge. 1) Storm is weakening and pushing less water 2) Looks like landfall will be around low or at least mid-tide tomorrow. Expand Isnt surge more a function of kinetic energy, overall expanse of windfield, and longetivity of onshore flow rather than just S-S scale? Also many area will go thru several tide cycles with the same or similar wind trajectory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Strengthening, weakening....open for debate. At the very least, this cyclone is holding it's own. Nice convection flareup NW quad....pulsing type of TC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderwolf Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 On 9/13/2018 at 10:04 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Isnt surge more a function of kinetic energy, overall expanse of windfield, and longetivity of onshore flow rather than just S-S scale? Also many area will go thru several tide cycles with the same or similar wind trajectory? Expand You are absolutely right, but wind speed is also a factor. None of the other factors have changed and so now with a decreased wind speed we are expecting less surge. And by less surge, I think the forecast only went down by about a foot, so we are really splitting hairs here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderwolf Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 On 9/13/2018 at 9:28 PM, SnowGoose69 said: 95% of Carteret County is already out of power. That is crazy high given winds only topping 55-65 so far Expand Just wanted to let you know that those numbers might be inflated slightly. I think the power outage source either a) doesn't have the total number of customers correct or b) is wrongly assuming all Carteret-Craven Electric Coop is out of power which it is not. My parents live there and have CCEC and still have power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 On 9/13/2018 at 10:10 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Strengthening, weakening....open for debate. At the very least, this cyclone is holding it's own. Nice convection flareup NW quad....pulsing type of TC: Expand It is massive and it's going to wreak havoc on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
f2tornado Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 On 9/13/2018 at 9:55 PM, Kendall said: NHC really whiffed on this one. Cat 3/4 at landfall a couple days ago and basically barely a Cat 1 now? Swing and miss big time. Expand This is garbage. It's a Cat 2 with a very large wind field. The track has been almost dead on for the past week. The NHC was very conservative adjusting the track which worked in their favor for this storm. Perhaps they were a little too confident early on with their intensity discussion given all the inherent uncertainty (ERCs, shear, etc.) but they have consistently stated there would be some weakening as the the center approached the coast. Ultimately, a very large and dangerous storm is right where they forecast it to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 On 9/13/2018 at 9:55 PM, Kendall said: NHC really whiffed on this one. Cat 3/4 at landfall a couple days ago and basically barely a Cat 1 now? Swing and miss big time. Expand It is reitensifying and already absolutely battering the OBX with more to come. Also, saying it is barely a cat 1 is quite literally factually incorrect. The only big time swing and a miss is your post if we're being honest here. I would take that down if I were you. Very very low quality discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Don't fall for the trap of the one post posters, they are just socks or trolls trying to get a rise out of the thread. Nothing of value is going to come from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 The NHC stated that some areas are already seeing 4' of surge and high tide isn't until 11PM for those areas. A long ways to go with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 On 9/13/2018 at 10:33 PM, SnoSki14 said: The NHC stated that some areas are already seeing 4' of surge and high tide isn't until 11PM for those areas. A long ways to go with this. Expand Things are progressing. Forecasts here in Raleigh have changed with the expansion of Flo. Not happy about possibly seeing 53mph gusting here. Our news caster came on and told us things are changing potentially and we have a better chance now of worse than they thought. That’s it wouldn’t be as bad as Fran in the Triangle, but die to the prolonged period and rains it’ll be significant in areas. Especially just to the south parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 I think lost in all the crap posting is the fact NHC actuallybped winds back up in their 6pm advisory to 105. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 interesting direction over the last 4 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Pressure down to 951 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 I don't know why people insisted otherwise, but anyone looking at the IR loop of this thing could tell it was strengthening. Now it looks like strong convection is wrapped around the center, and it even appears as if an eye is forming. Now, I have no idea what will come of this, but the storm certainly looks better organized than at almost any time today. On a more important note, I hope everyone in the Carolinas is ok and that this storm passes without causing too much damage. Everyone talks about how "beautiful" these storms look, but the destruction in their paths is devastating to families and wildlife. Just keep that in mind, because the people in Florence's path don't think anything about this storm is beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 On 9/13/2018 at 11:29 PM, NYCGreg said: I don't know why people insisted otherwise, but anyone looking at the IR loop of this thing could tell it was strengthening. Expand people insisted otherwise because the hurricane hunters weren't finding much of an increase in strength. the pressure has fallen a bit and winds have gone up a few knots, but let's not act like this is undergoing rapid intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 she is a resilient one. steadily wanting to fire convection around the center and wants to wrap it around so badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 On 9/13/2018 at 11:31 PM, the ghost of leroy said: people insisted otherwise because the hurricane hunters weren't finding much of an increase in strength. the pressure has fallen a bit and winds have gone up a few knots, but let's not act like this is undergoing rapid intensification. Expand No one is suggesting it is undergoing RI. But considering it is creeping back towards Category 3 status (it is 6 MPH from that category) is crazy, especially given that it is approaching land and was in terrible shape not too long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 I'm still not seeing any recon SFMR data higher than 75 kts anywhere in the very flat wind field. 100 mph is pretty generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 On 9/13/2018 at 11:40 PM, NYCGreg said: No one is suggesting it is undergoing RI. Expand Plenty of people are. wxtwitter has been a battle for the last couple hours after mike ventrice dared to say it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 NHC corrected their statement about the winds. It's 100 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 On 9/13/2018 at 11:44 PM, hawkeye_wx said: I'm still not seeing any recon SFMR data higher than 75 kts anywhere in the very flat wind field. 105 mph is pretty generous. Expand cape lookout is currently 71kts so i think it's fair to say that it's higher than the 75 that sfmr is showing. but that said, 90kts might be a little high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 buoy gust just reported 60 miles offshore of 134mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Down The Rabbit Hole Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Reminding me a bunch of Ike so far, especially this last bit of unexpected restrengthening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 On 9/13/2018 at 11:51 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Is this buoy different from the one I just posted? Expand Yep. Due east of Topsail, 60 miles off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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