Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

[Radtechwxman]

I see the eye is shrinking and contracting now. Anyone have a recent microwave pass? EWRC may be imminent or occurring again 

[TPAwx]

It’s not expected to intensify.

 

[Scuddz]

7 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

It looks like it on microwave imo

 

 

4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Totally. Likely why we had a decrease in intensity. Thanks for that 

That loop ended 20 hours ago...

[Dunkman]

Here's a recent mw pass. The morphed image loop is pretty but I'm not sure how useful it is (especially when it's a day old).

[mappy]

Come on guys, @Hoosier mentioned it last night, please make sure you are posting up to date images. 

[Chicago Storm]

Looking at satellite, there appears to be some southerly shear still affecting the storm.

Outflow is a bit restricted on the south side of the storm, with the southerly shear evident to the south as well.

This seems to have been a problem for the past 24-36hrs.

[Scuddz]

Here's an updated one:

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Looking at satellite, there appears to be some southerly shear still affecting the storm.

Outflow is a bit restricted on the south side of the storm, with the southerly shear evident to the south as well.

This seems to have been a problem for the past 24-36hrs.

If anything I think it’s been decreasing in the last couple of hours. Outflow appears to be improving on the southern side. 

I think the NHC forecast of 145 seems reasonable. Heading into an area we’re OHC extends to much greater depths. A storm this size outside of the deep tropics quickly upwells cooler water. So the increased depths the next 24 hours should induce strengthening. 

Then once it crosses over the Gulf Stream shelf waters will induce fairly rapid weakening. This thing isn’t going to be charging at and through the coast like Hugo and Hazel which had little if any time to weaken. 

[mempho]

This scenario if probably more costly in terms of damage than a tightly wound cat 4 or even 5.

I'm glad someone actually said it. It may not end up this way but this is currently defying the simplicity of the SS scale in that it's likely presenting a "worse" overall situation. Massive wind field and slow movement to boot plus there is ample evidence to argue that it could still do some strengthening.

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[Radtechwxman]

My apologies. I didn't pay attention to time stamp. Almost looks like the eyewall is open to the ese. Definitely a disorganized inner core. I do think the deeper OHC could induce strengthening if it's inner core can reorganize 

[mappy]

Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

My apologies. I didn't pay attention to time stamp. Almost looks like the eyewall is open to the ese. Definitely a disorganized inner core. I do think the deeper OHC could induce strengthening if it's inner core can reorganize 

vortext message posted an hour ago

F. Eye Character: Open in the southeast

[David Reimer]

 

[hazwoper]

5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

My apologies. I didn't pay attention to time stamp. Almost looks like the eyewall is open to the ese. Definitely a disorganized inner core. I do think the deeper OHC could induce strengthening if it's inner core can reorganize 

indeed, but I think that microwave may have an issue as well.  in the later frames there is an issue that is clearly visible and may be impacting the visual interpretation:

GOES imagery not nearly as bad of an open eyewal:

[NJwx85]

The eye has almost completely retracted on IR. Either the system is rapidly weakening or finally completing the ERC.

[Chicago Storm]

20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

If anything I think it’s been decreasing in the last couple of hours. Outflow appears to be improving on the southern side. 

Shear is definitely still an issue, in addition to some dry air entertainment too as seen on WV.

[Radtechwxman]

Not sure how upwelling would be an issue given its speed. I saw that more of an issue as it gets to the coast and slows in much shallower water. The shear and dry air make sense. Might see further weakening. This has been an utter nightmare to forecast

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

IR presentation just suddenly exploded with new convection around the eyewall

[hazwoper]

microwave still seems to be fading...I'd guess there is likely no room now for further strengthening.  The big story will still be the shear size of the windfield and stall along the coast along with heavy rainfall.

[adiabatic13]

Tonight's burst of deep convection should rebuild a solid eyewall one last time prior to shelf water disrupting Flo's heat engine; I'm going out on a limb and will forecast Cat 4 for a few dropsondes tomorrow morning...and the unmodeled moderate shear appears to be relaxing as well.

[Cooper08]

11 minutes ago, adiabatic13 said:

Tonight's burst of deep convection should rebuild a solid eyewall one last time prior to shelf water disrupting Flo's heat engine; I'm going out on a limb and will forecast Cat 4 for a few dropsondes tomorrow morning...and the unmodeled moderate shear appears to be relaxing as well.

120 mph at 5pm advisory 

[PennyForYourThoughts]

Water already rising in Oriental Nc.  

 

[NJwx85]

Trying to get better sampling of the ridge?

[Windspeed]

677 
WTNT41 KNHC 122042
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number  54
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
500 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft along with
satellite imagery and various intensity estimates indicate that
Florence has weakened instead of strengthening. However, while the
hurricane hasn't strengthened in terms of peak winds, the inner-core
and outer wind fields have continued to expand, resulting in an
increase the cyclone's total energy, which will create a significant
storm surge event. The upper-level outflow remains impressive and is
still expanding except toward the south.

Florence is moving toward the northwest or 315/14 kt. The new 12Z
global and regional model runs have come into much better agreement
on Florence moving steadily northwestward around a strong ridge
located between Bermuda and the U.S. mid-Atlantic region for the
next 48 hours or so. By late on day 2, Florence is forecast to
approach the southern portion of the North Carolina coast, then slow
down considerably and turn westward within collapsing steering flow,
with a very slow westward motion near the coasts of North and South
Carolina continuing into Friday and Saturday. Corrected-consensus
models HCCA and FSSE remain very close to each other and are quite
similar to the simple consensus model TVCA. Therefore, only a slight
eastward shift was needed to the previous forecast track through 36
hours or so, mainly due to the more eastward initial position based
on the reconnaissance fixes. At 48 hours and beyond, no significant
changes were required to the previous advisory track, which still
shows Florence moving slowly westward across South Carolina and
western North Carolina on day 4, followed by a slow northward motion
up the Appalachian mountain chain on day 5.

A narrow window of opportunity remains during the next 24 hours or
so for Florence to strengthen a little when the hurricane passes
over the warmer SSTs and deeper warm water/higher upper-ocean heat
content associated with the Gulf Stream, and low vertical shear
conditions of 5-10 kt will aid in any strengthening process.
However, significant strengthening is not anticipated due to
Florence's large and expanding inner-core wind field. By 36 h
and beyond, decreasing ocean heat content along with the slowing
forward speed of Florence will likely produce cold upwelling beneath
the hurricane, inducing a gradual weakening trend. When Florence
moves over the shallow coastal shelf waters in 48-72 h, land
interaction and more significant upwelling are anticipated, which
should further enhance the weakening process. The NHC intensity
forecast remains near the higher statistical guidance through 48
hours, then follows the trend of the decay SHIPS model after that
time.

Although the maximum winds are expected to weaken a little more,
Florence is still expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane as
it approaches the coast. The threat to life from storm surge and
rainfall will not diminish, and these impacts will cover a large
area regardless of exactly where the center of Florence moves.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along
portions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and
a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area.  All
interests in these areas should complete preparations and follow any
advice given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged
significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas
and the southern and central Appalachians late this week into early
next week, as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the
coast and moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning
is in effect. Strong winds could also spread inland into portions
of the Carolinas.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East
Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this
week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 30.9N  72.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 32.1N  74.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 33.4N  75.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z 33.9N  77.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  14/1800Z 34.0N  77.9W  100 KT 115 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 72H  15/1800Z 33.6N  79.2W   70 KT  80 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 96H  16/1800Z 34.0N  81.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  17/1800Z 35.6N  83.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

 

[f2tornado]

22 minutes ago, PennyForYourThoughts said:

Water already rising in Oriental Nc.  

 

Keep in mind this is a naturally very low spot that is prone to water on the road. That SUV is parked just past a permanently posted High Water sign. The local river is up a foot in recent days.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Looks like a larger eye is trying to develop

[downeastnc]

9 minutes ago, f2tornado said:

Keep in mind this is a naturally very low spot that is prone to water on the road. That SUV is parked just past a permanently posted High Water sign. The local river is up a foot in recent days.

 

Yeah wind tides like that are not uncommon..the water level there is 100% dependent on the wind...Belhaven is already higher since they take more water on a south wind, if the wind stays up overnight this gauge wont get below this again for 3-4 days at least with a stall SW keeping the surge in on the SE wind.....

 

 

[SouthernVAwx]

Have y’all noticed that Florence has been riding on the north side of things so far today? Was almost out of previous come of uncertainty earlier, and already starting to deviate north on the new cone. Storm has a mind of its own i swear.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, adiabatic13 said:

Tonight's burst of deep convection should rebuild a solid eyewall one last time prior to shelf water disrupting Flo's heat engine; I'm going out on a limb and will forecast Cat 4 for a few dropsondes tomorrow morning...and the unmodeled moderate shear appears to be relaxing as well.

Isn't it always amazing how there always seems to be that unmodeled fly in the ointment with all types of storm systems....so many moving parts to take into account...surprises always abound.

[hazwoper]

the 18Z NAM (yes I kn ow its the NAM) is an absolute nightmare taking the eye right on the coast around Wilmington around 39 hrs then paralleling the coast while slowly weakening all the way down to Charleston at 84 hrs.

[MJO812]

Hurricane Josh quit chasing this storm