Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

[f2tornado]

18 minutes ago, Jfreebird said:

Can someone tell me why it is loosing some of its reds and oranges on the IR to the north and NW of the storm? was looking at this IR loop for the past hour

 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-14-96-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Cloud tops of tropical cyclones do typically warm with daytime heating. The best lapse rates occur at night. We may see one more big burst tonight with the diurnal max in concert with crossing some of the highest ocean heat content. 

[NJwx85]

Moving on, 947mb in the eye at 11kts

[dan11295]

Will have the 12z models shortly. Very important to see any changes to where slow down/stall occurs. further from the coast is better for coastal NC wrt surge/rain/wind, but worse for SC/potentiall GA.

[ag3]

2 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Will have the 12z models shortly. Very important to see any changes to where slow down/stall occurs. further from the coast is better for coastal NC wrt surge/rain/wind, but worse for SC/potentiall GA.

12z NAM and 12z Rgem make full landfall now.

[NJwx85]

SW eyewall

[Cold Rain]

6 minutes ago, ag3 said:

12z NAM and 12z Rgem make full landfall now.

And the ICON.  In fact, neither the RGEM and ICON have the SW motion.

[NJwx85]

GFS starting in a tick North of 06z

[OSUmetstud]

5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

And the ICON.  In fact, neither the RGEM and ICON have the SW motion.

Bringing out the big guns. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Rgem has looked consistent with bringing the eye onshore around ILM. 

[NJwx85]

[Cold Rain]

1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

Bringing out the big guns. 

You know it.  Going to hit up the French one soon.  But seriously, it's interesting to see how things trend, even with the crappy models.

[NJwx85]

Looks like near Wilmington or possibly Morehead City

[beanskip]

12z GFS reflects the impossible nature of the forecast. 35 miles is the difference between landfall (12z run) and not (6z run). 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Very deceiving doing two still frames. Trajectory is more important. 

[Cooper08]

3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

You know it.  Going to hit up the French one soon.  But seriously, it's interesting to see how things trend, even with the crappy models.

If that’s not LF between 42/48 it is very close, closest I have seen to LF in NC over last day by GFS

[olafminesaw]

Jacksonville would be decimated if the GFS is how it played out.

[NJwx85]

[TPAwx]

This GFS run looks sub optimal for NC.

[NJwx85]

The slowdown and dump

[Justicebork]

GFS says nice knowing you, Wilmington and Jacksonville; and you'll love the new New Bern and Kinston.

It finally starts meandering SW towards N Myrtle at 72.

[NJwx85]

Moves maybe 75 miles in 24 hours

[hawkeye_wx]

While outflow is quite good to the west, north, and east, it appears to have become increasingly restricted to the south today.

The 12z GFS suggests the best upper flow may be Thursday.

[csnavywx]

That last recon pass - wow. There's like 3 cocentric eyewalls and a big stripe of hurricane force surface winds like 80-100 miles away from the center. Still obviously a decaying inner eyewall too. The center "calm" area has grown to 60-70 miles wide. The wind field has grown too big to strengthen quickly unless that big second eyewall can consolidate a bit and rob the rest of the wind maxima. Bottom line, the size is likely to continue growing, even if the max winds really don't.

[navvet8992]

Canadian follows suite.

[the ghost of leroy]

2 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

That last recon pass - wow. There's like 3 cocentric eyewalls and a big stripe of hurricane force surface winds like 80-100 miles away from the center. Still obviously a decaying inner eyewall too. The center "calm" area has grown to 60-70 miles wide. The wind field has grown too big to strengthen quickly unless that big second eyewall can consolidate a bit and rob the rest of the wind maxima. Bottom line, the size is likely to continue growing, even if the max winds really don't.

So like someone said earlier, another Ike situation.

This is a great example of how advanced imagery and more science have changed how we viewed storms.  Back in the old day agencies may have just relied heavily upon w/p charts and assigned a storm in the 940's a cat 4 rating.

[ag3]

FV3 GFS, NAM, RGEM and Regular GFS are all landfall in the same or similar spot now.

[csnavywx]

That shallow wind shear just below the outflow level on the southwest side stays there until late tonight or tomorrow morning on the GFS, then abates. Might have another opportunity for strengthening then.

[jbenedet]

5 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

That last recon pass - wow. There's like 3 cocentric eyewalls and a big stripe of hurricane force surface winds like 80-100 miles away from the center. Still obviously a decaying inner eyewall too. The center "calm" area has grown to 60-70 miles wide. The wind field has grown too big to strengthen quickly unless that big second eyewall can consolidate a bit and rob the rest of the wind maxima. Bottom line, the size is likely to continue growing, even if the max winds really don't.

Yes, in this way Florence reminds me of Hurricane Ike (when he was in the Gulf of Mexico). Latent Heat Energy being converted into increasing area rather than pressure falls close to center. Ike was a strong cat 2 before it hit Texas but was comparable to a cat 4/5 in terms of storm surge/coastal flooding

[bdgwx]

Florence has 100 TJ of kinetic energy now.

[hlcater]

 

15 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

That last recon pass - wow. There's like 3 cocentric eyewalls and a big stripe of hurricane force surface winds like 80-100 miles away from the center. Still obviously a decaying inner eyewall too. The center "calm" area has grown to 60-70 miles wide. The wind field has grown too big to strengthen quickly unless that big second eyewall can consolidate a bit and rob the rest of the wind maxima. Bottom line, the size is likely to continue growing, even if the max winds really don't.

I dont think the eye is 60-70 miles wide. It may look like it is, but recon did a little loop inside the eyewall. Unless that wasn't what you were using to judge size. Does anyone have a vortex message?