Windspeed Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 0z FV3-GFS made landfall over Cape Fear @ hr 66 then drifts SW along the SC coastline into Charleston between 96-102 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: It sure does. It’s dead center of the 50” contour and there’s nothing higher after that so I guess that’s as high as the product will show in terms of the contours but that’s def 93”. There’s no way that can happen, can it? It has 30 straight hours of 1.5" per hour or higher rates. I can't imagine that can happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I’m not buying the idea of shear impeding the system. Outflow channels look absolutely perfect (something that moderate shear would make look much less good). The whole system, as well as the eye, has had a bizarre look to it most of the day. Likewise, looks like we have quite a bit of new development on the outer portion of the western semi-circle of the CDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Appears recon is heading home, just as it starts to look better and better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 The latest recon pass has about 106 kt at the surface and 112 kt at flight level. Pressure still about 945 as far as I can tell. So the pressure is still close to what it was yesterday, no drastic changes into the 950s or 960s. The previous recon pass had about 130kt at flight level. So I think they can still argue that the surface winds may be that borderline 113 kt category 4, based off the previous recon pass about 1-2 hours ago. I'm not sure what the flight level to surface standard reduction is, maybe 90%. As far as the IR satellite is concerned, it does look a little bit lopsided, but not too crazy. The extremely cold cloud tops still wrap around the wide eye, with a fair number of miles of -60C cloud tops. So the IR satellite techniques, I'm sure, are still up there. (I haven't personally checked the Dvorak technique here, but probably category 4). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Hope folks around my old stomping grounds of Camp Lejune heed warnings...yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Lots going on in the core of the system. CDO looks to be expanding and becoming more symmetrical, but the coldest tops (whites) are now confined to the southern half of the storm vs. wrapped all the way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Euro barely offshore near ILM at 66... heading Southish at 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 No landfall through 72 hours for 0z euro. Appears to be a bit southwest of 12z position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Hours 60 to 84 Florence is meandering around SE NC offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 44 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: It has 30 straight hours of 1.5" per hour or higher rates. I can't imagine that can happen... I suppose one could see 50” happening if the stall and loop occurs just based off of the fact that Harvey did it to Texas last year but 93” is just absurd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Hard to tell on 24 hour maps, but looks to be even farther offshore of SC coast at 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 This run is definitely further offshore at 96 its at least 75 miles SE of CHS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Florence headed SW at 102 but this time a little further offshore of SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 So here is a question for a met — how close to shore does a storm need to progress (on close to perpendicular approach) for the full brunt of storm surge to be realized? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Lol Florence headed for landfall at SAV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Wow — looks like Georgia landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 It does appear to stay a little better organized since it is further offshore this run in the gulf stream.. Pressure stays in lower 970s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Headed to C GA at 126 lol... what a run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 0z 850 mb suite for 96 hrs. Wild stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Well, clearly the NHC is going to have to address this scenario at the 5 am update. This is two straight Euro and GFS runs that make landfall hundreds and hundreds of miles away from what is currently projected. So tricky though —have to communicate carefully to NC coastal areas that this will be close enough to be devastating even if landfall doesn’t actually occur. This will test NHC’s dexterity. Standard forecast tracks really won’t cut it with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Another pretty crazy Euro run with the center meandering 5-10 miles offshore, while the NE quad scours the coast from Jacksonville to Wilmington and then beyond. Storm a little weaker on its SW drift compared to yesterday, probably reasonable given upwelling. Free/sharable ECMWF via https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/785-w-343-n/gusts-3h-mph/20180914-2100z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seether Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Anyone have the precip map for the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Over the last several hours, Florence has gradually been losing that "undercut-by-a-bit-of-shear" look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 9 minutes ago, forecasterjack said: Another pretty crazy Euro run with the center meandering 5-10 miles offshore, while the NE quad scours the coast from Jacksonville to Wilmington and then beyond. Storm a little weaker on its SW drift compared to yesterday, probably reasonable given upwelling. Free/sharable ECMWF via https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/785-w-343-n/gusts-3h-mph/20180914-2100z.html That is one Crazy run Rakes NC all around.. but then the 46" Total QPF Map on the Earlier page matches up with it.. I'm just shaking my head.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, seether said: Anyone have the precip map for the euro? Check it out: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/791-w-341-n/acc-total-precipitation/20180918-1200z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Latest EPS (http://wx.graphics/models/eps_florence.png) lot of members doing the stall. One lone recurve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Almost unanimous EPS support for a period of southwest movement 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Several eps members are turning Florence sw quite far from the coast and maintain the strength as it turns back to the coast. What a tricky system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Some pretty wacky solutions mixed in here. Stall/loop or retrograde SW/onshore is the basic idea. But that could take a lot of different forms http://wx.graphics/models/eps_florence.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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