yoda Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Still no landfall through 84 for Florence... but it is weakening... 969mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Stalls just off the NC coast near Sneads Ferry at hour 60 until it starts moving SW at hour 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper08 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 3:54 AM, yoda said: Still no landfall through 78 for Florence... but it is weakening... 966mb Expand At 78 takes slight nudge to the right, then says I need to go back and hit that area more with a slight nudge back to the left. Has basically been in same area from 48 to 84! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper08 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 3:55 AM, ncskywarn said: Stalls just off the NC coast near Sneads Ferry at hour 60 until it starts moving SW at hour 84. Expand Very bad for Wilmington to Moorehead City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Florence finally makes landfall at 102 near Georgetown, SC... but at 979mb and just parallels the SC coastline as it heads more SW through 111 as it heads to visit CHS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Landfall in SC from the NE moving SW at hour 102 looks like between Myrtle Beach & Charleston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Looks like recon had ~130kt FL winds and ~110kt (~126mph) SFMR winds in the NE quad. So roughly still a 130mph cat 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Still moving SW just inland approaching the GA border at hour 114. Edit: Turns West into GA at hour 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 4:07 AM, jojo762 said: Looks like recon had ~130kt FL winds and ~110kt (~126mph) SFMR winds in the NE quad. So roughly still a 130mph cat 4. Expand Winds in the SE quad are finally increasing too, and convection is rapidly forming in the southern part of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Pressure is surprisingly rising, went from 944 to 947 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 4:24 AM, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Pressure is surprisingly rising, went from 944 to 947 Expand Or they just missed the center (more likely) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 GFS takes Florence as far NW is Eastrern KY at hour 156 then turns back SW thru Western NC at hour 168 to about the midpoint of the SC/GA line at hour 180 with the remnants about to emerge back into the Atlantic off the Southern coast of SC at hour 186. Edit: Actually turns SW again and emerges off the Florida panhandle into the GOM at hour 204. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayson Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 This is the best this storm has looked in a while on IR. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Convection is starting to fire west of the core where it's been sheared, in addition to the impressive convection on the western side of the eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aperson Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 4:32 AM, olafminesaw said: Convection is starting to fire west of the core where it's been sheared, in addition to the impressive convection on the western side of the eyewall Expand Impressed with the amount of lightning coming along w/ that convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Looking at dropsonde data (versus the VDMs) it looks like the pressure may have gone up one to two millibars this evening. As others mentioned, winds are slowly increasing at both the surface and flight level. 130 knot FL wind in the NE quad on that last pass with SFMR around 125 MPH. It looks like we'll get at least one more pressure check from recon before they head home. I'd say Florence has spent most of the day recovering from the EWRC. Who knows if it'll stay steady-state or actually have some modest intensification. Either way, the wind field has expanded significantly today. Like Hurricane Ike and its massive wind field, the wheels have been set in motion for a potentially catastrophic storm surge - regardless of the eventual maximum wind speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 A little feature I'm watching is mid-to-upper level cyclonic flow that appears to be increasing over eastern Florida. This future ULL has been modeled well by both ECMWF and GFS to close off at 400-250 mb level and retrograde over the northern GOM. This may provide excellent evacuation of mass to the west and an outflow channel for Florence tomorrow afternoon through Friday landfall/stall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 00z ukmet has the center drifting westward into southern NC Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 There has to be some poorly analyzed shear impacting florence, it's had problems getting anything going to the SW of the core all evening. Until this is fixed, florence should struggle to intensify much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 4:52 AM, hlcater said: There has to be some poorly analyzed shear impacting florence, it's had problems getting anything going to the SW of the core all evening. Until this is fixed, florence should struggle to intensify much. Expand Agreed. Here are my latest thoughts: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/09/powerful-hurricane-florence-continuing.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seether Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 4:48 AM, hawkeye_wx said: 00z ukmet has the center drifting westward into southern NC Thursday night. Expand Do you have a link to the 00z ukmet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 4:52 AM, hlcater said: There has to be some poorly analyzed shear impacting florence, it's had problems getting anything going to the SW of the core all evening. Until this is fixed, florence should struggle to intensify much. Expand I'd say it was pretty well analyzed: For some reason though, it wasn't mentioned at all in the NHC forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 5:07 AM, jpeters3 said: I'd say it was pretty well analyzed: For some reason though, it wasn't mentioned at all in the NHC forecast. Expand What does that graphic have it at now? -assuming there's a newer version for say... 03z-04z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 5:10 AM, hlcater said: What does that graphic have it at now? Expand Looks like 15-20 kt. Look at the top plot, which shows the 200-850 hPa wind difference averaged an area centered on the vortex. But agreed, I think poorly forecasted shear was the culprit today, which inhibited further intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Does. Does that say 93"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 5:14 AM, jpeters3 said: Looks like 15-20 kt. Look at the top plot, which shows the 200-850 hPa wind difference averaged an area centered on the vortex. Expand That looks like an old analysis as it hasnt updated thru 9/13 00z. Looks like from midday or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 5:16 AM, olafminesaw said: Does. Does that say 93"? Expand It sure does. It’s dead center of the 50” contour and there’s nothing higher after that so I guess that’s as high as the product will show in terms of the contours but that’s def 93”. There’s no way that can happen, can it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 5:16 AM, olafminesaw said: Does. Does that say 93"? Expand Your eyes do not deceive you. But that’s impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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