NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Wow HWRF just dumps and dumps on SC. Still looks like a well organized rain shield well after LF. Eventually moves NW and is still dumping on KY as the run ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 System looks to be in steady state intensity wise to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Any eta on recon arrival? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 That southern outflow channel is especially impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, irishbri74 said: Any eta on recon arrival? Should be about to enter the storm, looks like they're making a SW to NE pass to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Looking better on satellite. The eye is more concentric and not so chunky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looking better on satellite. The eye is more concentric and not so chunky. I was just about to post the exact same thing. Last frame the eye really looks good. If they were going strictly by DVORK that would up intestity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Could somebody post AF309 mission #9 recon plots from Tropical Tidbits? It would be so interesting to see the wind plots for 1 or 2 passes into the eye. I have to go and I won't be able to see Tropical Tidbits again until later, when the plots are gone. As of right now, recon is hitting 45mph winds and getting closer to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 that inland wind potential is pretty extreme per nhc Fayetteville and Raleigh really stick out for the 64kt potential https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT1+shtml/112040.shtml 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gjlp Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 10 minutes ago, Chinook said: Could somebody post AF309 mission #9 recon plots from Tropical Tidbits? It would be so interesting to see the wind plots for 1 or 2 passes into the eye. I have to go and I won't be able to see Tropical Tidbits again until later, when the plots are gone. As of right now, recon is hitting 45mph winds and getting closer to the storm. 79 kt at 297° approaching eyewall in SW quadrant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 942.8 on recon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 SW eyewall is frankly not that impressive. Only 100kts SFMR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 pretty tame in that sw quad. No surprise there, struggling all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, hlcater said: SW eyewall is frankly not that impressive. Only 100kts SFMR. Typical ERC progression no? Pressure first then winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, friedmators said: Typical ERC progression no? Pressure first then winds I think this has less to do with the ERC and more to do with the fact the SW quad has been pretty beat up the past 4-6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 53 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 18z HWRF came in a tick stronger than 12z with eventual LF in extreme NE SC. Well that depens on when it makes landfall. Windshear doesn't get bad until after 78hrs now on the FV3. If it makes landfall before then it maybe a much stronger storm. If it waits until 120hrs, the shear going to rip it up a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looking better on satellite. The eye is more concentric and not so chunky. Overall it looks a little better since completing the ERC, I guess.....but its holding its own for the most part. Recon seems to be confirming this. I'm kind of doubting we see much more intensification at this point. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 While we're waiting 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 The SFMR data during the first pass was not very impressive. Even the ne quad only showed 105 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: The SFMR data during the first pass was not very impressive. Even the ne quad only showed 105 kts. I wonder why this is? Satellite presentation(after taking a dump late this afternoon) has been improving this evening. Even the morning recon when the storm was still in an EWRC and the sat. presentation was worse still had more robust winds. I'm very confused to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Please double check images before posting them to be sure they are current. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 A little dry air and shear may be affecting the storm. There is still plenty of time for it to strengthen or regain better organization (however, I hope it doesn't) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I'm not sure what he means. That is two degrees in longitude. Maybe he meant something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Hurricane force winds extend way out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 She does look better on satellite as far as the eye and overall presentation, than even an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: She does look better on satellite as far as the eye and overall presentation, than even an hour ago. Yeah this was at 23:13 Versus now (doesn't embed right, click the links) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Its a cat 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Yeah probably argues for Cat III right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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