hawkeye_wx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Interestingly, neither the HMON nor HWRF are showing any additional strengthening. They simply keep it in a steady state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Interestingly, neither the HMON nor HWRF are showing any additional strengthening. They simply keep it in a steady state. I would say that it is strengthening right now looking at the satellite, maybe it levels off after strengthening today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 11 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Maybe someone can help me understand this. I am looking at the steering layers and see a pretty clear path into eastern carolina - seems to be inline with where the majority of the models were yesterday. GFS moved away from there today and close to the Euro. Can anyone maybe point to something that would be driving it further south contrary to what it looks like in the steering layers of the atomosphere? Steering flow isn't static. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Comparison of GFS, UKMET and Euro (0z) Compari 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Spare yourselves the agony of micro analyzing plethora of low grade guidance and go with the most reliable and consistent premium grade.....especially given the man ridge setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 11 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Maybe someone can help me understand this. I am looking at the steering layers and see a pretty clear path into eastern carolina - seems to be inline with where the majority of the models were yesterday. GFS moved away from there today and close to the Euro. Can anyone maybe point to something that would be driving it further south contrary to what it looks like in the steering layers of the atomosphere? A stronger ridge over the Atlantic to the N/NE of Florence coupled with another ridge in the Great Lakes Region evolving into the OH Valley are the culprits to the further South and West trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 23 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Maybe someone can help me understand this. I am looking at the steering layers and see a pretty clear path into eastern carolina - seems to be inline with where the majority of the models were yesterday. GFS moved away from there today and close to the Euro. Can anyone maybe point to something that would be driving it further south contrary to what it looks like in the steering layers of the atomosphere? The ridge to the north is keeping the storm south. see the red area. the gfs had this weaker, and not as far west, in previous runs, thus it allowed Florence to come up the coast more. The ridge expands west as the run goes on, which causes the stall and the eventual inland movement of Florence. The Euro has had the same depiction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 I guess the NHC could nudge the track south a bit. TVCN is still going to be to the right of the 0Z ECMWF track due to the north turn depicted by the UKMET and COAMPS. I'm not sure if the 18Z model guidance includes the 12Z Euro or not. Anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Florence has had some cold tops firing all around the eye now. Definitely watching it intensify again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 11 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Florence has had some cold tops firing all around the eye now. Definitely watching it intensify again. It still has an odd appearance to me, as if there is some southeasterly shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 12z Euro going to Wilmington, but now it stalls the system before the center even crosses the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navvet8992 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Euro is a tad further north and stronger than 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 12z euro looks disasterous in the way that it slows down dramatically right before making LF and looks to stall at the coast with most of its circulation on land. This is in line with most of the other guidance now. A dramatic slowdown in forward speed right before landfall is being reflected on all major guidance right now. This is concerning to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 ECMWF is a slow agonizing landfall between Wilmington and Jacksonville, NC., and a long-duration hurricane force wind event over shoreline. Florence would be weakening, but slowly until core got inland. Even if you don't get sustained major hurricane force for very long, 24-36 hrs straight of hurricane force winds is going to be devastating. Edit: Fails to make landfall through 96. Just stalls near shore and then begins to drift SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 New microwave data shows the ERC nearing completion, however still open to the North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It still has an odd appearance to me, as if there is some southeasterly shear. I think you're confusing shear with elongation of cirrus canopy in response to outflow channels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Doesn't appear to make landfall this run, but drift just offshore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: 12z euro looks disasterous in the way that it slows down dramatically right before making LF and looks to stall at the coast with most of its circulation on land. This is in line with most of the other guidance now. A dramatic slowdown in forward speed right before landfall is being reflected on all major guidance right now. This is concerning to say the least. Likely means a weaker LF, so there's that. Def. no more than a cat 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jfreebird Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Red is 12z Blue is 00z interesting where they both ended up on 72hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Doesn't appear to make landfall this run, but drift just offshore Yes, through 96 it stalls and fails to make landfall. Drifting SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 The rainfall totals are going to be astronomical this run of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 This is crazy. Now the euro still has Florence over water Saturday night. Update: Euro finally moves the center inland, south of Charleston, after midnight Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Headed for Savannah at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Anyone have the high res on the Euro? How close does the eye get before that drift to the SW? Either way you cut it though that is a brutal scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 The high pressure just squashes it down south this run and it helps that Florence is being shown progressively weaker each model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 This is a cruel run for Wilmington. SW drift would keep onshore flow surging Cape Fear for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Those are the last 4 12z runs lol. Didn't realize that, however the point is still the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Trend is going to being to be towards less impact should this trend continue....main threat being fresh water flooding. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Multiple pieces of guidance with a west bend at or shortly after landfall. The Euro just takes it to the extreme with the southwest motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now