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Florence coming to Philly?

zenmsav6810

By zenmsav6810,
in Philadelphia Region

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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

Posted
Posted

Florence is now back to a Hurricane - 

431 
WTNT31 KNHC 091448
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

...FLORENCE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 56.3W
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 24.4
North, longitude 56.3 West.  Florence is moving toward the west near
6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
today.  A west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward
speed is expected by Monday, and that motion is forecast to continue
through mid-week.  On the forecast track, the center of Florence
will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and
the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the southeastern
U.S. coast on Thursday.

Aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased
to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.  Florence is forecast
to rapidly strengthen to a major hurricane by Monday, and is
expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane through
Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter Aircraft is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and are
beginning to reach portions of the U.S. East Coast.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

There had been an issue of models showing it stalling out, either offshore or just inland and that scenario would definitely impact the southern part of the CWA with the northern bands.  Any track further north and we may be feeling some of the winds (where the antecedent wet conditions could mean trouble) -

 

nws-hurricane-florence-ts-windspeed-probabilities-145023-09092018.png

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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Seems the beaches will take a pounding this week on top of the last day or so...

The New Moon was yesterday so that has helped exasperate the tidal river and coastal ocean flooding in the CWA. Fortunately the timing of Florence's impacts shouldn't have that as a contributor!

Florence is still maintaining its track and sped up a bit to 9 mph.  Central pressure down to 969 mb and sustained winds are @ 105 mph. Wind impact probabilities have also shifted a tick north within the CWA -

 

nws-hurricane-florence-090119_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind-09102018.png

nws-hurricane-florence-ts-windspeed-probabilities-090119-09102018.png

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The Iceman

The Iceman

Posted
Posted

2 thoughts:

1. Still having a hard time seeing Flo completely stall but as we get closer with more and more models showing this scenario, the chances of it occurring have gone up. The question may shift to how far NW does she get before the stall occurs. I don't think the area especially southern areas are out of the woods yet.

2. despite the tight cluster in guidance at the moment, a shift of 150 miles north would bring dramatically different results  for the area. I'd be surprised if the track was set in stone 5 days and strong intensity storms like Flo is projected to reach are notorious for shifting in track. So while it looks like we smoke cirrus at the moment, I wouldn't feel comfortable especially if I was on the coast up here until wednesday.

 

My current thinking is LF in the Va Beach/Norfolk area. I think we see a N shift as we get closer due the ridge breaking down and high intensity storms tendency to move poleward. However, I am not a pro, and these are just my thoughts as a long time hobbyist.

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Lady Di

Lady Di

Posted
Posted

 I need a lesson on the dynamics of a system this size stalling?  My thinking is that it would have to be a huge high and a ridge to stall it.  The remainder of Gordon seemed to follow what typically occurs, spreading out, riding the ridge and or going counter clockwise around a hp system.

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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Lady Di said:

 I need a lesson on the dynamics of a system this size stalling?  My thinking is that it would have to be a huge high and a ridge to stall it.  The remainder of Gordon seemed to follow what typically occurs, spreading out, riding the ridge and or going counter clockwise around a hp system.

I am curious too.  All I can think of was the horrible stall that Harvey did last year over Texas and that resulted in a number of areas getting 30" - 40" of rain.  It's like the system gets cut off from the jetstream, looped around inland a bit for 4 days, drifted back out into the GOM and then re-entered around the TX/LA border and just sat there for a couple more days until finally it started moving NE and eventually moved out.

 

Harvey_2017_track.png

hurricane-harvey-2017-at201709.gif

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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Lady Di said:

That's right.  Harvey definitely was cut off from anything.  I streamed live TV in Houston for over a week, he was one nasty storm.

You and me both!!!  OMG I must have had at least 2 or 3 streams going (different stations plus some of the storm chasers).  That's why I haven't crawled over to the Tropical forum yet because I am still trying to recover from following Harvey, Irma, and Maria last year!

I am really really hoping this doesn't happen with Florence.

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Lady Di

Lady Di

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

You and me both!!!  OMG I must have had at least 2 or 3 streams going (different stations plus some of the storm chasers).  That's why I haven't crawled over to the Tropical forum yet because I am still trying to recover from following Harvey, Irma, and Maria last year!

I am really really hoping this doesn't happen with Florence.

I'm over there reading already.  She's a cat 4 there was a special advisory put out at noon.   Not looking good for NC.

 

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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Lady Di said:

I'm over there reading already.  She's a cat 4 there was a special advisory put out at noon.   Not looking good for NC.

 

Yup.  I've been posting on a non-weather forum about weather and this storm (my retirement has not been "leisurely")!!!  :lol:  

I saw a tweet from a WU weather blogger that said that if this makes landfall at a Cat 4, it will be the first time on record that a hurricane of that strength made landfall that far north.  Of course last year, Maria was the first time on record that a hurricane made it to a Cat 5 while still out in the Atlantic waters (versus in the Caribbean or GOM where that kind of strengthening usually happens).

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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

12z gfs ensembles signifcant N and E.. 3 members show a NJ LF.. mean though is a shift north from 6z. Interested to see the euro...

 

06L_gefs_12z.thumb.png.558efad5c5bfd1b9678e678fb42a40a8.png

 

Edit: don't know why the 9th was posted but the new one is N and E. will try to fix.

 

That mean is a BIG ASS shift north.  I hope that doesn't verify.  That's like a Hurricane Isabel track!

 

hurricane-isabel-2003-at200309.gif

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Newman

Newman

Posted
Posted

Guys, the old GFS is completely on it's own now. EURO/UKMET/ICON/CMC/NEW GFS all landfall down into SC/NC. In fact the EPS members coming in right now are all into SC or NC as well. Could we get some gusty remnants later on? Sure. But a landfall north of the OBX is looking very unlikely at this point. Good luck to North Carolina on this one. The coastline is going to get destroyed by the MH force winds and inland will get 10-20" of rain. Insane really.

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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

Posted
Posted
Just now, Birds~69 said:

That's way N...WTF?

I've been posting on another (non-weather) forum and someone posted a link to one of those graphical "wind" sites, and just looking at the current wind patterns, you can see an open gap based on where the ridge and Canadian High is and how the Bermuda high is pumping the current, where "north" seems open for it to drift to.  Using the below site, you can see the flow -

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-61.15,29.54,1448

Obviously things may be different tomorrow but could be the models are latching onto this idea but may change with the 0Z.

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The Iceman

The Iceman

Posted
Posted

I don't think the GFS is out to lunch with the N idea, however I really question the stall off the coast... these wound up systems tend to come in further north on the east coast...yes there is a big ass ridge but I really don't think the models are going to have a great grasp on the track until it peaks strength. fascinating to watch unfold though.

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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Newman said:

 The coastline is going to get destroyed by the MH force winds and inland will get 10-20" of rain. Insane really.

If it stalls and gets cutoff (like Harvey did in TX last year), they could get more than that just because it's so warm down there (atmosphere and ocean temps).  There were some places west of Lancaster that reported almost 5" of rain just this morning from Gordon remnants.

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Birds~69

Birds~69

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, The Iceman said:

I don't think the GFS is out to lunch with the N idea, however I really question the stall off the coast... these wound up systems tend to come in further north on the east coast...yes there is a big ass ridge but I really don't think the models are going to have a great grasp on the track until it peaks strength. fascinating to watch unfold though.

Agree, agree and agree.

 

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Voyager

Voyager

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Saw a tweet (Northeast Weather HQ?) put out showing the 12z ICON taking Flo right up the Chesapeake and over top of us Saturday Night. 

 

Of course not sure exactly how reliable that model is,  nor how reliable Northeast Weather is, but I will trust the NHC forecast than one model. 

Well, the 12z ICON did show that, but I don't believe it's a very reliable model. There's a reason why the NWS and NHC use the Euro/GFS/NAM/UK/Canadian as their models. As much as I'd love to see the ICON scenario happen, it most likely won't.

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zenmsav6810

zenmsav6810

Posted
  • Author
Posted
On 9/15/2018 at 7:16 AM, Hurricane Agnes said:

What's left of TS Florence's eye is sitting over eastern SC, with a heavy band plopped over Myrtle Beach, and a death band training over Jacksonville, NC.

Latest NHC track (looks to partially follow a Fran or Hugo track before re-curving over our area and OTS) -

 

 

 

Looks like the track is narrower and south. Should be a soaker for us.

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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

Looks like the track is narrower and south. Should be a soaker for us.

Every NHC update keeps moving the center of that track closer and closer to here!  The 5 am was the NHC final update since it is now a tropical depression.  WPC has us in the 1 - 2" range in their 1 - 3 day forecast (so far) -

 

 

 

nws-tropicaldepression-florence-085537_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind-09162018.png

wpc-Florence_rainfall-day1_3-09162018.gif

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