Derecho! Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 26 minutes ago, hickory said: We can develop an atomic weapon in the early 1940's. We can land someone on the moon in 69. We can start to develop a computer in the 80's. We can develop a smart phone which is a very complex device in the 2000's, we can start to develop self automated love dolls in the 2010's, but we cant pin point a hurricane forecast 5 days out. Smh Current tropical cyclone track forecast accuracy is, in my opinion, one of the greatest achievements of humanity. I am continuously astonished at how good it is now and how much it's constantly improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Most recent AF pass had central pressure at 944mb. It was 945mb at 8pm update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hickory Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Look I just wish our goverment would spend more on science than defense. Imagine what we could do with half of the defense budget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 19 minutes ago, Derecho! said: Current tropical cyclone track forecast accuracy is, in my opinion, one of the greatest achievements of humanity. I am continuously astonished at how good it is now and how much it's constantly improved. It wasn’t that great when Florence went from low end cane to cat 4 over 27c water. But I agree it’s light years better then it was 30 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 hour ago, hickory said: Look I just wish our goverment would spend more on science than defense. Imagine what we could do with half of the defense budget. To be sure I would be heartened if we were to increase NOAA’s budget by say, the flyaway cost of 10 F-35s per year, and to be sure it is worthwhile to continue to strive for 120 or 168 or 192 hours of reliable warning rather than 96, 72, or 48-36. But Derecho! is right that sciencewise the forecasting is amazing; what probably most needs attention is our social and civic infrastructure in terms of preparedness & anticipating climatologically plausible emergencies generally and for acting on the warnings we do get for specific imminent hazards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I am so proud of my local forecast office because every dang little infographic and powerpoint slide they put out on everything from “weird clouds” to “life hazardous blizzard chaos” shows that somewhere, some trained weather professional is striving not just to have a forecast that verifies but also to make it meaningfully actionable for idiots like me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Well it looks like the NHC is doing a white lie keeping Florence officially at 140 mph. With a storm so threatening I'd fear lowering the wind speed would decrease public concern so I can see why they are bending the observations a little bit and more than likely with the pressure falling I'd say the storm will restrengthen to some extent. If the storm were to maintain the status quo and were still kept at 140 I'd have a problem with it however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Derecho! said: Current tropical cyclone track forecast accuracy is, in my opinion, one of the greatest achievements of humanity. I am continuously astonished at how good it is now and how much it's constantly improved. The Euro nailed the general position of Florence along the NC coast on day 9, maybe day 10 when it was just a wave coming off the west African coast. That is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It wasn’t that great when Florence went from low end cane to cat 4 over 27c water. But I agree it’s light years better then it was 30 years ago. I typed "track" not "intensity." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Leland NC here. 4.5 miles west of Wilmington. I think we are screwed. Riding it out. Half my neighbors are gone the other half are sticking around. But with this latest update I am doubting staying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 IMO The GFS is goofoo. Do not base decisions off current run. Stick with the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Not saying it couldn't happen, but it would take incredibly bad luck for the eyewall to rake such a long length of coastline of NC/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I saw a, blow Florence away with fans, campaign on Facebook. I guess it's working, because models are trying their best to keep it offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 LOL. Neighbors and I are having one heck on a party. Someone bought 2 kegs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keelala Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 hour ago, NCWX said: Leland NC here. 4.5 miles west of Wilmington. I think we are screwed. Riding it out. Half my neighbors are gone the other half are sticking around. But with this latest update I am doubting staying. Who knows how accurate it is, but my weather app has the storm going almost directly through Leland as a Cat 2. STRAP DOWN THE KEGS!! Oh... and maybe think a little harder about fleeing. I would flee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 12, 2018 Author Share Posted September 12, 2018 19 minutes ago, Keelala said: Who knows how accurate it is, but my weather app has the storm going almost directly through Leland as a Cat 2. STRAP DOWN THE KEGS!! Oh... and maybe think a little harder about fleeing. I would flee. i'll eat my shoe and post it in this thread if an inland location like that actually experiences sustained 110 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 12, 2018 Author Share Posted September 12, 2018 these things are the new 10:1 ratio snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 hour ago, NCWX said: Leland NC here. 4.5 miles west of Wilmington. I think we are screwed. Riding it out. Half my neighbors are gone the other half are sticking around. But with this latest update I am doubting staying. As long as you are safe from flooding and have a half decent "safe room" it isn't crazy to stay and experience hurricane winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 We are at 60 feet above sea level. Our neighborhood is built on the highest point in our county. Calling it a night. See you all tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keelala Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 18 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: i'll eat my shoe and post it in this thread if an inland location like that actually experiences sustained 110 He's like 15 miles inland, max. This storm is 500 miles in diameter, give or take a shoe. It's going to be insanely windy there before it ever makes official landfall. Surge shouldn't be an issue at that elevation, but the winds... at the very least the power will be out and the water contaminated. I don't trust that the relief efforts will be fast or efficient. You can laugh at me after it's over, seriously, I would love to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 30 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: these things are the new 10:1 ratio snow maps I'll eat both my shoes if 93" falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 12, 2018 Author Share Posted September 12, 2018 9 minutes ago, Keelala said: He's like 15 miles inland, max. This storm is 500 miles in diameter, give or take a shoe. It's going to be insanely windy there before it ever makes official landfall. Surge shouldn't be an issue at that elevation, but the winds... at the very least the power will be out and the water contaminated. I don't trust that the relief efforts will be fast or efficient. You can laugh at me after it's over, seriously, I would love to be wrong. 15 miles is a long distance for frictional effects to bring down the wind speed. i'm not saying the wind won't be intense, but it won't be 110/130g. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keelala Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 10 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: 15 miles is a long distance for frictional effects to bring down the wind speed. i'm not saying the wind won't be intense, but it won't be 110/130g. I do believe you, but at the "highest point in the county," wouldn't frictional effects be lessened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 12, 2018 Author Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Keelala said: I do believe you, but at the "highest point in the county," wouldn't frictional effects be lessened? it's not mount denali. how many feet ASL are we talking here? 50? 100? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keelala Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: it's not mount denali. how many feet ASL are we talking here? 50? 100? I dunno. We'll just have to wait and see. In any case, Flo sure looks funky here. Looks like she's spitting out baby hurricanes to make the wishcasts come true. "You, slam into NYC, and you... I need you to take out Miami." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 12, 2018 Author Share Posted September 12, 2018 i'm loving this wild euro run. not knowing what will happen is really making up for how lame the storm has been today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 12, 2018 Author Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, Keelala said: I dunno. We'll just have to wait and see. In any case, Flo sure looks funky here. Looks like she's spitting out baby hurricanes to make the wishcasts come true. "You, slam into NYC, and you... I need you to take out Miami." if you stare into that long enough you'll see a ghastly birdface on the left blob. could have a higher meaning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keelala Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: if you stare into that long enough you'll see a ghastly birdface on the left blob. could have a higher meaning... I see it!! And in the right blob, a dragon taking a selfie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 12, 2018 Author Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Keelala said: I see it!! And in the right blob, a dragon taking a selfie. i see more of a snake. like the serpent in genesis. i highlighted it in white for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keelala Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 47 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: i see more of a snake. like the serpent in genesis. i highlighted it in white for you. I'm not getting snake at all. More of a "furmaid." Also from genesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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