Windspeed Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Maybe I'm forgetting but I don't recall seeing a storm with that satellite presentation before. What's the deal with the fingers of cooler cloud tops oriented straight out from the center? It's due to strong divergence aloft. You have strong upper level airflow jets away from the convection that stretches the high cirrus clouds. It creates finger-like linear striations / furrows in the cloud canopy's appearance. Essentially, the CDO is being stretched and it's also a sign of strong outflow channeling establishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Anyone wishcasting this hurricane to their backyard is out of their damn mind. Hopelessly batsh** crazy. That's all I got. One of the rare instances where I would rather observe from a distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Just now, Vice-Regent said: Anyone wishcasting this hurricane to their backyard is out of their damn mind. Hopelessly batsh** crazy. That's all I got. One of the rare instances where I would rather observe from a distance. Indeed. I, for one, do am not wanting to be without power for weeks at the end of Virginia summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PressureDrop2017 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Many of those in the Lumber River / Lumberton NC area still have not fully recovered from Hurricane Matthew less than two years ago. If the models predicting Florence inland 'stall' over southeast NC prove true, that is a cruel fate for those poor people. This time there will be better preparedness, but so unfortunate to lose again what they have managed to rebuild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 12z Euro is...interesting. If it holds on to that solution and it verifies, I'll be willing to hail King Euro forever and ever. But I'm skeptical. Edit: For discussion's sake I'll say that the 12z Euro is showing Flo stalling out just off Wilmington for ~3 days then scooting south and making landfall in Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 The Euro run would be terrifying for people who decide to stay in Wilmington. Hours upon hours of the eyewall wobbling towards or away from the city, eventually making it onshore. Wilmington gets about 48 hours of hurricane strength gusts. Not to mention the surge and over two feet of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Ohhhh... NJwx85 is the guy I was talking about on the first page who used to have a wedding photo as his avatar. It all makes sense now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 11, 2018 Author Share Posted September 11, 2018 sup...i'm unbanned. glad the mods saw the light and went SEP and it was fun watching you all trash njwx85, mr "this is definitely hitting as a cat 4" anyone else think icyclone should have chased mangkut? it's looking like irma for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Power companies mobilizing. https://cbs12.com/news/local/caravan-of-fpl-trucks-head-to-carolinas https://www.wptv.com/news/region-c-palm-beach-county/fpl-crews-heading-to-areas-in-hurricane-florences-path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 38 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: sup...i'm unbanned. glad the mods saw the light and went SEP and it was fun watching you all trash njwx85, mr "this is definitely hitting as a cat 4" anyone else think icyclone should have chased mangkut? it's looking like irma for sure figured there was a reason behind you being so quiet. at least he's chasing one of the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILM2714 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 11 minutes ago, jburns said: Power companies mobilizing. https://cbs12.com/news/local/caravan-of-fpl-trucks-head-to-carolinas https://www.wptv.com/news/region-c-palm-beach-county/fpl-crews-heading-to-areas-in-hurricane-florences-path I do sales for a large international hotel brand and I have been working with Duke Energy here in Wilmington since last Thursday to find housing for around 500 rooms starting tomorrow for 10 days. Most hotels in the area have several disaster relief groups already in house or checking in tomorrow. It looks like it’s going to be ugly here but it appears as though appropriate steps are being made in preparation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 The impacts given model consensus south of the OBX mean hardly anything interesting up here in Goldsboro MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 11, 2018 Author Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Jakkel138 said: The impacts given model consensus south of the OBX mean hardly anything interesting up here in Goldsboro MD. take in some people fleeing the storm and play drunk twister with them. very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 sup...i'm unbanned. glad the mods saw the light and went SEP and it was fun watching you all trash njwx85, mr "this is definitely hitting as a cat 4" anyone else think icyclone should have chased mangkut? it's looking like irma for sureExposure. Exposure. Exposure. Western media and the threat is great in a highly publicized event. The possibility of a stall on the coastline could also make for a long-duration event. Something Josh has not had a lot of dealings with versus short intense landfalls. Also he already explained his reasoning in potential difficulties in chasing and penetrating Mangkhut in the Luzon Strait as well. I think he made a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Stacy Stewart is the master of meteorological discussion of TCs and synoptic reasoning. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Just now, Windspeed said: Stacy Stewart is the master of meteorological discussion of TCs and synoptic reasoning. That is all. Do you have a link to something recent to read? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Do you have a link to something recent to read?https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/112056.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 11, 2018 Author Share Posted September 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Stacy Stewart is the master of meteorological discussion of TCs and synoptic reasoning. That is all. I am more an Avila guy myself. Stewart is a fun read but so bullish at times. He is to the NHC what Broyles is to the SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, Windspeed said: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/112056.shtml Oh! Didn't realize this was them , my bad. Yes, I really enjoy "Stewart" discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Oh! Didn't realize this was them, my bad. Yes, I really enjoy "Stewart" discussions. Nice save there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Nice save there! Hah! Yep, brain went automatically for a her but remembered otherwise. My name is Alex so I feel that pain often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 11, 2018 Author Share Posted September 11, 2018 this is kinda cringe, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 Just now, the ghost of leroy said: this is kinda cringe, IMO Yeah. Call me no fun but I think that professional agencies should refrain from silly, inane stuff like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: this is kinda cringe, IMO comparing anything to ohio is p bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 11, 2018 Author Share Posted September 11, 2018 43 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: comparing anything to ohio is p bad. I’m gonna start calling it THE Hurricane Florence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 We need a landfall contest thread. Anybody who nails this one is really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: I’m gonna start calling it THE Hurricane Florence could have something in common...failure. especially when it landfalls as a cat 1 in sc after meandering offshore for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 On the happy hour, drunk gfs. Looks like remnants of Florence loop around through the mid Atlantic and reform another TC that looks like it may turn back for another shot at the southeast coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 11, 2018 Share Posted September 11, 2018 3 hours ago, the ghost of leroy said: sup...i'm unbanned. glad the mods saw the light and went SEP and it was fun watching you all trash njwx85, mr "this is definitely hitting as a cat 4" anyone else think icyclone should have chased mangkut? it's looking like irma for sure It’s really too bad we do not have recon in the West pac anymore. Mangkut is probably something ridiculous like 910 170mph. The 80 degree therm is extremely deep in that part of the pacific. Imagine having the waters of the SW Caribbean continue for another 1000 miles. That’s how you end up with the strongest tropical cyclones on earth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 11, 2018 Author Share Posted September 11, 2018 Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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