nycwinter Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 seems florence eye is collapsing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, ag3 said: Sandy was a cat 4-5 storm for a while, was larger and phased with multiple vorts and was enhanced by the trough and block. Different animal. Pretty sure Sandy maxed out at 115mph just prior to landfall in Eastern Cuba. It barely had any tropical characteristics left by LF and the core was completely eroded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: Ike, Katrina, Isabel, Sandy. This storm is much closer to them in size, which is why the surge will be very impressive closer to what you'd see with a cat 3-4 storm. ike was bigger sandy was much bigger then florence.. sandy was the largest tropical cyclone in the atlantic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Hey ag3, Florence used to be a cat 4 too. Yes, but 3 days before landfall and on a different trajectory. Sandy was also enhanced by a major phase. Much different beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, ag3 said: Yes, but 3 days before landfall and on a different trajectory. Sandy was also enhanced by a major phase. Much different beast. Sandy was a major hurricane for about 5 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, ag3 said: Yes, but the surge will be much less then previously forecasted. Cat 4-5 wall of water vs. Cat 1-2. The wind field is significantly bigger now than when it was a cat 4. If you had 2 similar sized storms and one was a cat 4 and the other was a cat 2, then yeah there would be a big difference in surge. Size matters a lot. I don't know the particulars of the NC coastline but I know they are going to have a surge much bigger than whatever they would get in a typical cat 1 or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Sorry. Yes, Sandy maxed out as a 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 22 minutes ago, ag3 said: Now I remember why I don’t post here anymore. Moron conceded Mets like yourself. I know as much and more as you and 90% of everyone here. Go on hyping a cat 1-2 storm. Outta here. Didn't take long for you to decide to stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, Stebo said: Ike, Katrina, Isabel, Sandy. This storm is much closer to them in size, which is why the surge will be very impressive closer to what you'd see with a cat 3-4 storm. Most times it’s the water that kills in hurricanes, not the wind, unless you’re on an island and take a direct hit from a major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 6:34 PM, nycwinter said: ike was bigger sandy was much bigger then florence.. sandy was the largest tropical cyclone in the atlantic... I am not comparing to exacts, I am pointing out that it is in a subset of larger than normal storms like those others I listed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, bobbutts said: Now I remember why I don’t post here anymore. Moron conceded Mets like yourself. I know as much and more as you and 90% of everyone here. Go on hyping a cat 1-2 storm. Outta here. Come again when you can't stay quite so long... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The wind field is significantly bigger now than when it was a cat 4. If you had 2 similar sized storms and one was a cat 4 and the other was a cat 2, then yeah there would be a big difference in surge. Size matters a lot. I don't know the particulars of the NC coastline but I know they are going to have a surge much bigger than whatever they would get in a typical cat 1 or 2. Thats what she or he said... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Hey ag3, Florence used to be a cat 4 too.Also the slow down will prolong the onshore flow. The rise in ocean heights will continue to flow into inlets and estuaries for 48 hrs into the southern and central North Carolina coastline. It won't be able to retreat like a normal or faster landfall. You want the strong onshore flow to get out of there as fast as possible to stop piling up the fetch that has already been acquired and carried with the hurricane. Having it slow down and never getting offshore flow due to the prolonged slow motion and bend SW makes a bad situation worse. I expect surge projections near Wilmington to verify. The only way they do not is if Florence slows down much earlier than forecast and turns SW staying well away or off the North Carolina coast. This could carry the threat SW. There would still be surge, but that could help alleviate it. As current track stands, however, projections likely will verify unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 32 minutes ago, ag3 said: @Stebo says if you don’t have a degree you don’t know weather and shouldn’t be posting. 25 years experience means nothing. God, I can’t stand this, and is why I hate the internet...everyone thinks they are an expert. It is like the sports fan that is convinced they know more than the coach/manager/GM. No, you do not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Looks like things got pretty spicy in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Not downplaying this. Still dangerous. All I am saying it’s not the same beast it was 2 days ago. Still very dangerous because of surge and rainfall and should be taken seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 The sun wasn’t what it was a couple days ago either. But you know what? Get too close and you still die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Not downplaying this. Still dangerous. All I am saying it’s not the same beast it was 2 days ago. Still very dangerous because of surge and rainfall and should be taken seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hickory Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 It's over with its weaknesses is showing. Some rain and wind. Stick a fork in it it's done. Open the beaches back torrommow and let the children play in the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 12, 2018 Author Share Posted September 12, 2018 Imagine scissoring with ag3 all evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I just wanted to say that I learn a lot from Stebo and the other degreed mets on this forum. Actually I can extend that to many other non-degreed posters as well. So thank you all for the wealth of information you provide and stoking my interest in weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Can anyone provide a picture or loop of Flo right now? On my phone and don't have my bookmarks handy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 hour ago, ag3 said: @Stebo says if you don’t have a degree you don’t know weather and shouldn’t be posting. 25 years experience means nothing. From your posts, I would say you have 1 year of experience 25 times. Not nearly the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Pretty far north of NHC track all day long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 7:54 PM, BrianW said: https://twitter.com/DrMitchem/status/1039915826831388677 These are the people who look at cat 1 cat 2 all the same, it is ignorance that will get people killed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, BrianW said: If the homes are newer & built on on pillars, they will be fine. modern construction is tremendous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Here’s a big factor that people are missing. captured fetch. As the storm continues moving in the same direction and speed as the swell it is generating you continuously impart more energy into the water. It’s complex physics but relatively easy to understand. As the swell period (the length between crests) increases the speed and pure energy contained in the swell increase. The south Hatteras buoy is starting to show some very impressive swell periods for a tropical cyclone 16 seconds. What that all means sensibly is that the waves which will be ridding on top of the surge will be that much more energetic and thus damaging... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 People on Ocracoke know the risk they're taking. We can look at the same circumstances and think they're reckless but they aren't ignorant of their situation. People living there have experienced many hurricanes. I mean yeah it's still a dangerous storm and will have a surge much larger than you'd expect for the winds. That said, recon found cat 1 winds on that SW to NE pass. 90mph is not 140mph I don't care how big it is. Certainly seems like the rain will be the biggest story, which I think is what many people thought all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 23 hours ago, Akeem the African Dream said: give me 110kts at Emerald Isle 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: I wonder if we get a full blown landfall around Emerald Isle and not this hang just offshore thing. Florence is tracking a bit right today (and at decent speed) and would have to bend west more significantly to put the landfall down around ILM. hi there 1 hour ago, Stebo said: I didn't say anything about credientials, but you are as uneducated about tropical meteorology as you can get. Lets put it this way, Sandy was a cat 1 when it made landfall into NJ, I guess it was no big deal because it was a cat 1 right? lol @ "credientials" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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