Hoosier Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I'd say it will be a reasonable success if we keep the death toll out of triple digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'd say it will be a reasonable success if we keep the death toll out of triple digits. Sadly I agree. You know there are going to be people on the barrier islands that get inundated, and if it tracks down towards sc/ga that just further exsatribates the issues because they weren’t really fully expecting this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Sadly I agree. You know there are going to be people on the barrier islands that get inundated, and if it tracks down towards sc/ga that just further exsatribates the issues because they weren’t really fully expecting this. They need to get out now! The surge is going to be awful. But alas, many will stay and many will pay... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Sadly I agree. You know there are going to be people on the barrier islands that get inundated, and if it tracks down towards sc/ga that just further exsatribates the issues because they weren’t really fully expecting this. Staying behind in some of these areas is a death wish. I wonder if we will get some numbers in the next day or two about how many people decided to not evacuate from various areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 15 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Floyd was a cat 2 on landfall..it killed 73 people in the US. Ike was a cat 2 at landfall, it killed 110 people in the us and did 30 billion in damage. Isabelle was a cat 2 and did 5.5 billion in damage and killed roughly 50 people. Stop downplaying it. The category system is the worst. Surge should be the most important factor in rating a storm since it's the killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, bobbutts said: The category system is the worst. Surge should be the most important factor in rating a storm since it's the killer. I think we need to find a way to better account for freshwater flooding. Harvey was cat 4, but the winds are not what caused most of the problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 https://explore.org/livecams/oceans/frying-pan-cam looks like she's coming in. Will be an interesting watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: I think we need to find a way to better account for freshwater flooding. Harvey was cat 4, but the winds are not what caused most of the problems. Yeah, maybe rate each factor 1-5 (freshwater flood, surge, wind) and take the highest one.. There's no perfect way, but not accounting for the deadly effects is a mistake imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keelala Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 16 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Sadly I agree. You know there are going to be people on the barrier islands that get inundated, and if it tracks down towards sc/ga that just further exsatribates the issues because they weren’t really fully expecting this. I just don't understand the rationale behind staying on a barrier island with this monster looming. They know what the barrier is for, right? What has to be said to convince them to get out of the way? The people who choose to stay put a price on their lives - the few hundred dollars it would have cost to evacuate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I wonder if we get a full blown landfall around Emerald Isle and not this hang just offshore thing. Florence is tracking a bit right today (and at decent speed) and would have to bend west more significantly to put the landfall down around ILM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I wonder if we get a full blown landfall around Emerald Isle and not this hang just offshore thing. Florence is tracking a bit right today (and at decent speed) and would have to bend west more significantly to put the landfall down around ILM. Some of the 18z guidance are coming in NE of previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Yeah we'll see. I don't want to be that guy who overreacts to track deviations but this seems like more than a brief wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 God i miss winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 That’s an unfortunately shaped graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: God i miss winter You say that now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Pressure increasing and winds decreasing. Granted the rainfall will still be excessive, this threat is decreasing drastically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yeah we'll see. I don't want to be that guy who overreacts to track deviations but this seems like more than a brief wobble. this storm is already north of the nhc center position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: Pressure increasing and winds decreasing. Granted the rainfall will still be excessive, this threat is decreasing drastically. Threat has been decreasing all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, TPAwx said: That’s an unfortunately shaped graphic. No... it is glorious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Pressure increasing and winds decreasing. Granted the rainfall will still be excessive, this threat is decreasing drastically. 2 minutes ago, ag3 said: Threat has been decreasing all day. Sigh..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Sigh..... It’s a standard cat 1-2 Carolina hurricane. Far from the Cat 3-4 historic hurricane models had a couple days ago. People are stuck on 2 days ago here. Far from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 At least they are sh*thing up right thread...somebody should ask families of those on Bolivar in Ike what cat 2s can do...pure devastation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, Tibet said: You say that now I'm a big winter weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, ag3 said: It’s a standard cat 1-2 Carolina hurricane. Far from the Cat 3-4 historic hurricane models had a couple days ago. I’m sorry you’re disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, ag3 said: It’s a standard cat 1-2 Carolina hurricane. Far from the Cat 3-4 historic hurricane models had a couple days ago. It's not a standard Carolina storm. The surge doesn't just go poof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: I'm a big winter weenie And when you end up east of a cutoff like 3 times this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: I’m sorry you’re disappointed. Im not disappointed. Just stating facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Can the uneducated NYC posters go back to their subforum? These "it's no big deal" posts ring hollow and have no meteorological basis to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: It's not a standard Carolina storm. The surge doesn't just go poof. The storm is weakening right now. Surge forecasts will decline as well. And the track is also east of forecast. This likely landfalls east of 12z suite and diminishes quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, Stebo said: Can the uneducated NYC posters go back to their subforum? These "it's no big deal" posts ring hollow and have no meteorological basis to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.