Stebo Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 My folks live in Sunset Beach NC, 2 miles inland in a 12 year old home golf,course community. Their lot is 28 feet above sea level. They have refused to leave as have many of their neighbors. I'm at my wits end and this latest run of the euro looks like the nightmare scenario for them. My sisters and I have about half a day to try and convince them, scare them, do whatever we can to get them to gtfo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keelala Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 8:11 AM, buckeye said: My folks live in Sunset Beach NC, 2 miles inland in a 12 year old home golf,course community. Their lot is 28 feet above sea level. They have refused to leave as have many of their neighbors. I'm at my wits end and this latest run of the euro looks like the nightmare scenario for them. My sisters and I have about half a day to try and convince them, scare them, do whatever we can to get them to gtfo. Expand Maybe each of you try calling and hamming up a really dramatic goodbye, as if you know you'll never see them again. Crying could only help your case. I know your situation. If my dad was there, he wouldn't leave either. Once, he stuck out a wildfire, standing on the roof with a garden hose as the yard burned around him. But you can't hose a hurricane. Can't do anything except get out of its way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 8:11 AM, buckeye said: My folks live in Sunset Beach NC, 2 miles inland in a 12 year old home golf,course community. Their lot is 28 feet above sea level. They have refused to leave as have many of their neighbors. I'm at my wits end and this latest run of the euro looks like the nightmare scenario for them. My sisters and I have about half a day to try and convince them, scare them, do whatever we can to get them to gtfo. Expand These storms are more hype then furry typically. They will be fine. The winds reported by noaa are so high up in the atmosphere they rarely reach ground level. The surge will have minimal impact at their location. i would leave just due to the likelihood losing electricity for an extended time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 10:05 AM, Animal said: These storms are more hype then furry typically. They will be fine. The winds reported by noaa are so high up in the atmosphere they rarely reach ground level. The surge will have minimal impact at their location. i would leave just due to the likelihood losing electricity for an extended time. Expand Ugh, this is the thinking mentality of many in these areas, then they scream why aren’t you saving me and risking your life when they are trapped putting more folks in harms way. Society has somehow been put off by inconveniences anymore, not sure why that has changed but it appears to get worse with each passing year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 11:01 AM, NTXYankee said: Ugh, this is the thinking mentality of many in these areas, then they scream why aren’t you saving me and risking your life when they are trapped putting more folks in harms way. Society has somehow been put off by inconveniences anymore, not sure why that has changed but it appears to get worse with each passing year. Expand Don’t be so dramatic. i would be shocked if scared son’s parents home is wiped out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 7:48 AM, Keelala said: I'm not getting snake at all. More of a "furmaid." Also from genesis. Expand Fidofish. Jonger sells these out of a truck. Farm raised tho and not wild caught. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 11:06 AM, Animal said: Don’t be so dramatic. i would be shocked if scared son’s parents home is wiped out. Expand Pretty sure this "scared son" is not concerned with the house being wiped out or injury or death as a direct result of the hurricane itself. The issue is they are both close to 80 yrs old and I believe they have no concept of the prolonged hardship they will face in the weeks following the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 7:48 AM, Keelala said: I'm not getting snake at all. More of a "furmaid." Also from genesis. Expand Anyone with Toddlers less than 5 will get this reference... Mer-Pup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 A category 2 is bad but not "catastrophic". People need to tone it down a bit. This isn't 2 days ago where the Euro had it straight into NC as a category 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 12:15 PM, ag3 said: A category 2 is bad but not "catastrophic". People need to tone it down a bit. This isn't 2 days ago where the Euro had it straight into NC as a category 4. Expand You obviously don't understand how vulnerable Eastern NC is with these storms. Matthew hit as a Cat 1 and killed 26 people in NC and $1.5 billion in damages. If even half of the total rain projections verify, this could end up catastrophic for SE NC and SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 12:15 PM, ag3 said: A category 2 is bad but not "catastrophic". People need to tone it down a bit. This isn't 2 days ago where the Euro had it straight into NC as a category 4. Expand The catastrophic part is going to be multiple consecutive tide cycles with sustained onshore flow as well as stalled bands of extreme rainfall rates causing catastrophic fresh water flooding. The risk for severe wind damage is lessened by the stall scenario but the surge and fresh water flooding is significantly enhanced. The latter two tend to cause more risk to life and property compared with the former. Thus I think catastrophic is definitely warranted even if the landfall strength is lessened. It would probably be better if the storm just charged ashore and wound itself down quickly. As it stands it will die a slow death and maintain strength to some degree while it is still over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 12:15 PM, ag3 said: A category 2 is bad but not "catastrophic". People need to tone it down a bit. This isn't 2 days ago where the Euro had it straight into NC as a category 4. Expand Why should people tone it down? With storms like these, it's better to get ready for the worst and hope for the best. I don't mind the hype if it gets people to take this seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 12:15 PM, ag3 said: A category 2 is bad but not "catastrophic". People need to tone it down a bit. This isn't 2 days ago where the Euro had it straight into NC as a category 4. Expand Agree but the flooding will still be very bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 12:15 PM, ag3 said: A category 2 is bad but not "catastrophic". People need to tone it down a bit. This isn't 2 days ago where the Euro had it straight into NC as a category 4. Expand Katrina was “only” a decaying cat 3. This is dangerous thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 12:51 PM, KPITSnow said: Katrina was “only” a decaying cat 3. This is dangerous thinking. Expand Katrina made full direct landfall at a good forward speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 What was Floyd when it dumped 25" of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 12:53 PM, ag3 said: Katrina made full direct landfall at a good forward speed. Expand And this is just going to sit and spin and plow water into the coast over a long period time which could potentially cause large issues. It is also a large storm with a big wind field and that can exasperate issues as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I don't know why everyone is so convinced that this is going to weaken significantly before landfall. Shear really doesn't increase until the center is already onshore. You will have some upwelling, but it's mid September, not November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 12:57 PM, KPITSnow said: And this is just going to sit and spin and plow water into the coast over a long period time which could potentially cause large issues. It is also a large storm with a big wind field and that can exasperate issues as well. Expand Yes, I get it, but its not nearly as bad as it looked 2 days ago when the Euro and most models had it maintaining forward direction and a direct cat 3-4 landfall that sliced through the state of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 1:07 PM, NJwx85 said: I don't know why everyone is so convinced that this is going to weaken significantly before landfall. Shear really doesn't increase until the center is already onshore. You will have some upwelling, but it's mid September, not November. Expand Every single EPS member and most modeling weakens it to a cat 1-2 by landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 1:08 PM, ag3 said: Every single EPS member and most modeling weakens it to a cat 1-2 by landfall. Expand I take that back. The 6z Rgem brings it fully ashore and into interior NC. That would be the one exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 1:07 PM, ag3 said: Yes, I get it, but its not nearly as bad as it looked 2 days ago when the Euro and most models had it maintaining forward direction and a direct cat 3-4 landfall that sliced through the state of NC. Expand On 9/12/2018 at 12:32 PM, mattb65 said: The catastrophic part is going to be multiple consecutive tide cycles with sustained onshore flow as well as stalled bands of extreme rainfall rates causing catastrophic fresh water flooding. The risk for severe wind damage is lessened by the stall scenario but the surge and fresh water flooding is significantly enhanced. The latter two tend to cause more risk to life and property compared with the former. Thus I think catastrophic is definitely warranted even if the landfall strength is lessened. It would probably be better if the storm just charged ashore and wound itself down quickly. As it stands it will die a slow death and maintain strength to some degree while it is still over water. Expand Read more, post less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 1:07 PM, ag3 said: Yes, I get it, but its not nearly as bad as it looked 2 days ago when the Euro and most models had it maintaining forward direction and a direct cat 3-4 landfall that sliced through the state of NC. Expand Whatever weakening occurs should largely be mitigated by the expansiveness of the wind field in terms of storm surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 1:09 PM, mattb65 said: Read more, post less Expand Overhyping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 1:08 PM, ag3 said: Every single EPS member and most modeling weakens it to a cat 1-2 by landfall. Expand And we're trusting ensembles for intensity forecasts now? Modeled intensity forecasts are historically inaccurate, and environmental conditions ahead are about the best you'll ever see in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 1:09 PM, ag3 said: I take that back. The 6z Rgem brings it fully ashore and into interior NC. That would be the one exception. Expand LOL for even mentioning the RGEM in a tropical discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 12:29 PM, BlueRidgeFolklore said: You obviously don't understand how vulnerable Eastern NC is with these storms. Matthew hit as a Cat 1 and killed 26 people in NC and $1.5 billion in damages. If even half of the total rain projections verify, this could end up catastrophic for SE NC and SC. Expand You build a house on the ocean or bay, you expect this to happen. It’s nothing atypical to have a tropical storm or hurricane impacts these areas. rivers/streams will flood for sure in the typical areas. Again if you live at the bottom of a hill or near rivers/streams expectation is it floods. Recommendation is to avoid living in these areas if you are not expecting weather related problems at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 The 06z HWRF is a cat 3 at landfall, and you have a ton of areas in the RFQ that will experience onshore hurricane force winds. That's going to push a lot of water in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On 9/12/2018 at 1:12 PM, Animal said: You build a house on the ocean or bay, you expect this to happen. It’s nothing atypical to have a tropical storm or hurricane impacts these areas. rivers/streams will flood for sure in the typical areas. Again if you live at the bottom of a hill or near rivers/streams expectation is it floods. Recommendation is to avoid living in these areas if you are not expecting weather related problems at some point. Expand You do realize that nearly all of ENC is essentially just a large coastal pain, river basin, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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