NNE Fall Thread

[wxeyeNH]

Going to be an interesting early/mid week.  Another coastal with mixed.  Then wow on the wind and cold.  Just looked at the 18Z GFS.  Going down to 10-15F for most of NNE Tuesday night and staying in the teens for highs on Wednesday.  Going to feel brutal.

[alex]

58 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Going to be an interesting early/mid week.  Another coastal with mixed.  Then wow on the wind and cold.  Just looked at the 18Z GFS.  Going down to 10-15F for most of NNE Tuesday night and staying in the teens for highs on Wednesday.  Going to feel brutal.

That's good news for us. The resort fired up the snow guns today and they are hoping to be able to get some good base to hopefully open next weekend. Once Thanksgiving rolls around, we need skiing to keep business going!

[alex]

Haven’t been out to measure but eyeing half an inch or so from this last round of upslope 

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.8” Snow/1.00” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.03 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 35.4 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: Trace

 

We picked up an additional 0.3” of snow with today’s various rounds of snowfall activity, and it’s actually been fairly active this evening with the WNW flow of moisture.

[qg_omega]

6 ones inches at the base of Gore mountain last night, 9 inches up top

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

6 ones inches at the base of Gore mountain last night, 9 inches up top

You hike it?

[powderfreak]

23 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 We picked up an additional 0.3” of snow with today’s various rounds of snowfall activity, and it’s actually been fairly active this evening with the WNW flow of moisture.

 

I like the two lake effect streamers that have sort of been "triggered" by the terrain.  Funny how when they pass over the Champlain Valley the moisture plume must be there but not enough lift to get precipitation... invisible until coming in contact with the mountains.

Looked like a good streamer in Waterbury and one north in Stowe.  The Stowe one is a bit north of me but I've got a fresh couple tenths of graupel out there.  Some of the graupel balls are fairly substantial in size.

[powderfreak]

On 11/9/2018 at 5:39 PM, CoastalWx said:

Looks like SE upslope component shows well on dual pol CC

Just because we were discussing this last night... forgot to add you can clearly see the SE flow on the precipitation reports up this way this morning.

The heavier and steadier precipitation that was able to click along at 0.05-0.10" per hour and get snow to the surface on the east side, was only delivering rates of 0.02-0.04" per hour on the west side.

Very, very clear demarcation between the east and west sides, with up to 60% less precip falling even just a couple miles west of the Spine, like J.Spin having 0.93" while a few miles away is 0.35" type totals.  That precip boost had to help a lot in getting that dynamic cooling process really going.

[J.Spin]

I was able to head back up to Bolton Valley this afternoon for a ski tour, so I can add to my accumulations profile from that I sent along earlier today.  The readings above 2,000’ may have been boosted a bit by today’s additional snowfall, but they generally synched up fairly well with my observations from this morning.  Here’s the full new snow depth profile:

340’:  0”

1,000’:  Trace

1,200’:  1”

1,500’:  3-4”

2,000’:  6-8”

2,100’:  8-9”

2,500’:  10-12”

3,000’:  12-14”

I did get readings as high as 16” on the upper mountain, and one drifted spot with 20”, but I’d say 12-14” is a decent measure of the top end I found.  It seemed like there was some old snowpack up high, but I don’t think it interfered with measurements of the new snow because it should have been pretty solid by now.

Even base temperatures had dropped into the 20s F when I was up there in the midafternoon, and my thermometer was showing 19 F when I was up at the Vista Summit, so the snow wasn’t wet at all.  Below ~2,500’ there was a thick layer in the snowpack that was only an issue in wind scoured areas.  I’m not sure when that developed (maybe during the warmest part of the storm), but today’s additional snow sort of mitigated that, at least with the 115 mm skis I was on.  Above 2,500’ it didn’t seem like that layer was even present, and turns were fantastic in midwinter snow.  There’s definitely a nice density gradient to give you those easy powder turns with ample protection below.  With tonight’s temperatures, the only enemy would be wind, so the good snow should be there a while for those who want get after it.  Below, I’ve added a few pictures from today at the mountain:

[J.Spin]

40 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Just because we were discussing this last night... forgot to add you can clearly see the SE flow on the precipitation reports up this way this morning.

The heavier and steadier precipitation that was able to click along at 0.05-0.10" per hour and get snow to the surface on the east side, was only delivering rates of 0.02-0.04" per hour on the west side.

Very, very clear demarcation between the east and west sides, with up to 60% less precip falling even just a couple miles west of the Spine, like J.Spin having 0.93" while a few miles away is 0.35" type totals.  That precip boost had to help a lot in getting the dynamic cooling.

Great stuff PF, it’s always nice when you post these analyses showing the impressive terrain effects along the spine.  What a barrier the Greens can be.

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

You hike it?

Facebook

[alex]

3 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Great stuff PF, it’s always nice when you post these analyses showing the impressive terrain effects along the spine.  What a barrier the Greens can be.

You can see some really impressive examples in the Caribbean, as in the West side vs East side of Puerto Rico. There you go from desert to rainforest in a few miles

 

[alex]

Heavy squalls again

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I like the two lake effect streamers that have sort of been "triggered" by the terrain.  Funny how when they pass over the Champlain Valley the moisture plume must be there but not enough lift to get precipitation... invisible until coming in contact with the mountains.

Looked like a good streamer in Waterbury and one north in Stowe.  The Stowe one is a bit north of me but I've got a fresh couple tenths of graupel out there.  Some of the graupel balls are fairly substantial in size.

The wind direction has been perfect for our camp. It’s snowed most of the day there. Looks like 4”-5” after the compaction of the wet snow.  It was starting to freeze up as I left. 

[alex]

https://apple.news/A-pn9BR7IR42hxJsqvm3bmA

Nice mention of Bretton Woods!

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 1.2” Snow/1.01” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0

Snow Density: 2.5% H2O

Temperature: 28.4 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 0.5 inches

[alex]

0.7 overnight, on top of the 1.75 yesterday 

[wxeyeNH]

An interesting weather week coming up.  Tuesday storm,  very cold and windy midweek and now another colder storm possible on Friday.  Let's lock in the 12Z Euro.  985mb low going over Cape Cod is perfect track for most of us.  Good ole noreaster.  First got to get through the Tuesday mess.

Oh Alex, tried your BW link but it doesn't seem to work.

[powderfreak]

3 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

An interesting weather week coming up.  Tuesday storm,  very cold and windy midweek and now another colder storm possible on Friday.  Let's lock in the 12Z Euro.  985mb low going over Cape Cod is perfect track for most of us.  Good ole noreaster.  First got to get through the Tuesday mess.

Oh Alex, tried your BW link but it doesn't seem to work.

Tuesday does look messy, like a 2-6" type elevation dependent system.  I think it could still be a net gain like this past storm was though, even down in the mountain valleys.

Full on winter today though... up at the ski resort temps stayed well in the 20s with even blowing and drifting snow on the NW winds.  Snowmaking running from top-to-bottom. 

[alex]

Down to 18 already. With the snow on the ground, feels like Fall is a distant memory lol. 

Gene not sure how to get that link... Works on my phone but it opens in Apple News. 

[CoastalWx]

21 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Just because we were discussing this last night... forgot to add you can clearly see the SE flow on the precipitation reports up this way this morning.

The heavier and steadier precipitation that was able to click along at 0.05-0.10" per hour and get snow to the surface on the east side, was only delivering rates of 0.02-0.04" per hour on the west side.

Very, very clear demarcation between the east and west sides, with up to 60% less precip falling even just a couple miles west of the Spine, like J.Spin having 0.93" while a few miles away is 0.35" type totals.  That precip boost had to help a lot in getting that dynamic cooling process really going.

What did the base get?

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What did the base get?

5" at 1,500ft...just soaking wet snow, had to be close to 5:1 ratio.  But it's now frozen into a glacier surface you can almost walk on in spots.  See photo a few posts up.  Snow looks like dry powder because of a top inch blowing around but that stuff is solid crust.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

5" at 1,500ft...just soaking wet snow, had to be close to 5:1 ratio.  But it's now frozen into a glacier surface you can almost walk on in spots.  See photo a few posts up.  Snow looks like dry powder because of a top inch blowing around but that stuff is solid crust.

Yeah saw. That’s dead winter right there lol. Nice.

[wxeyeNH]

Snow has glaciated down here too.   1 mile drive from 600 feet to 1600 feet is the difference between no snow and solid coverage that is glaciated.   Once the snow goes through the cycle of a bit of melting during the day and freeze up at night it becomes so much more durable.  I'm not a hunter and they will all be out this week.  Glad we have a couple of crap days to keep some inside.  Nov 14th thru Dec 9th is regular firearm season in NH.

[alex]

First single digit of the year this morning at 7.2. And tomorrow rain! Gotta love New England 

[J.Spin]

Yesterday morning we picked up a final tenth of an inch of snow to finish things off from that weekend system, but early this morning I got a text alert that we were under a Winter Weather Advisory, so it’s time to start thinking about the next event.  A quick look at the BTV NWS forecast discussion, advisory text, and some point forecasts suggests that for NVT they’re thinking 3-6” in the valleys and 6-12” for the mountains.  The latest advisory and projected accumulations maps are below:

[powderfreak]

BTV upgraded us to a Winter Storm Warning.

[J.Spin]

19 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

BTV upgraded us to a Winter Storm Warning.

I haven’t been able to find where they discussed the aspects of the upgrade yet, but that’s typically a nice sign of course.  The discussion speaks of the strong dynamics in northeastern VT, and they’ve got the Winter Storm Warning covering everything up there.

Looking at the projected accumulations map, the higher elevations didn’t get a big increase, but a lot of the lower and middle elevations seemed to.  They bumped us into the 6-8” shading, and our point forecast generally reflects that, but we’ll have to see how things go in the lower mountain valleys.

[tamarack]

Advisory here, 3-5" forecast before the change.  Then it becomes a glacier on Wednesday.  It had to be this fall that snow would come early and persist.  My firewood stacking was delayed because the porch where 2.5 cords should now be piled was the workspace for our reno project.  About one cord to move porch-ward, another to stack and cover so I can refill in January.  Don't even have the snow stake planted in the garden yet. 

Still white ground here - had it ben late March rather than now, Saturday's 2" wouldn't have lasted more than a few hours.  Woods were explosively noisy this morning.  When frozen leaves are that much "quieter" than walking on the crusty snow, every deer within half a mile probably can hear me walking.

[J.Spin]

I didn’t have enough time yesterday to send along an update, but I was able to get out for another ski tour at Bolton Valley, and the family was able to make it as well.  With the cold temperatures, there really weren’t any substantial changes in the snowpack between Saturday and Sunday.  The fluff that had fallen on the mountain later on Saturday had settled out on the lower mountain, so the melt crust there was more obvious than it had been, but the skiing was similar.  The great skiing was still above 2,500’ where the snow had never been affected by warmth.  This next storm should only add to what’s there, and the current forecast suggests it would be all snow at elevation.  A few shots from yesterday: