McQuackleton Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 38 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said: I'll tell you, remember hurricane mathew a few years back? I was living in wilminton at the time, only a cat 1 (first hurricane I'd experienced), but when you see long leaf pines bending in ways they shouldnt over someones house, knowing they could snap at any moment will scare the bajeebus outta you. And the noise of it all I'll never forget... Then driving back through lumberton the amount of tree damage was surprising for how far in land they were. Straight line winds can maximize gust potential very quickly. Then you don't remember the "Super storm of "93"? OMG that wasn't even a cane,, 80's F to snow with-in 10 miles! THAT was a Storm My friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Random thoughts on Florence 5+ days to potential LF: 1) With a few notable exceptions, these hurricanes ALWAYS seem to trend towards a more northward landfall as the storm gets closer to shore. Today the NC/SC border is in the bullseye, but tomorrow morning it might be Wilmington. And then Cape Lookout. And then Hatteras... 2) NHC has a possible cat 4 upon landfall, which is quite a rare event in the Carolinas (only Hazel and Hugo have done this I believe). Perhaps something will come up as it gets closer that could hinder development that we can't see at the moment? Like perhaps a nicely time ERC, or unexpected strong sheer coming up before LF that isn't modeled right now? 3) is this loop idea something we should actually be considering as possible? I recall some models flirted with this idea for Matthew, but we know that didn't happen. Both Diana and Dennis went stationary at one point and did loops, but those are the only two I know of. 4) Dat GFS run had some biblical qpf totals. I don't want to even consider that scenario being a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 So who wants too chase? Brunswick/New hanover landfalls.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 getting real....NHC plots landfall Cat 4 130 mph ILM......still 5 days out also why does it gotta be nighttime....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, downeastnc said: getting real....NHC plots landfall Cat 4 130 mph ILM......still 5 days out also why does it gotta be nighttime....... Admittedly, that's a pretty ominous forecast. The only silver lining I can think of is that it's 5 days out instead of 2... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 One thing that should be stressed is this is not your typical Cat 1-2 NC cane threat and should be taken with extreme seriousness...especially anywhere that will be along or east of this things eventual track.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Keep hoping this turns and goes out to sea, or it never gets to a big hurricane. But this looks really bad for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said: Admittedly, that's a pretty ominous forecast. The only silver lining I can think of is that it's 5 days out instead of 2... yeah plenty of time to see this miss to the east......the crappy part is that it probably wont be evident its gonna miss until late in the timeline.....this isnt your typical NC cane hit setup or approach angle though and usually when these type of setup occur they tend to be less wishy washy and come on in....Isabel/Fran etc....both were pretty locked in by 4-5 days out. We knew they were coming and chances of landfall where high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Just now, Brick Tamland said: Keep hoping this turns and goes out to sea, or it never gets to a big hurricane. But this looks really bad for NC. My concern is if this hits cat 4 people aren't going to know what to expect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Hopefully this thing goes out to sea. I need some advice but my problems are not even close to what Carolina residents have to deal with, but I am still in need of help. I'm flying into CHS from Philly Wednesday morning to visit my brother, and am supposed to go back Saturday morning. I only go down once a year really and we're supposed to go to an indoor concert in Charleston Friday. Seems like that will get cancelled and I'll get stuck at the airport Saturday. Perhaps I just shouldn't go? I have no experience with this kind of thing at all, and this is only my second time flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Just now, hurricane1091 said: Hopefully this thing goes out to sea. I need some advice but my problems are not even close to what Carolina residents have to deal with, but I am still in need of help. I'm flying into CHS from Philly Wednesday morning to visit my brother, and am supposed to go back Saturday morning. I only go down once a year really and we're supposed to go to an indoor concert in Charleston Friday. Seems like that will get cancelled and I'll get stuck at the airport Saturday. Perhaps I just shouldn't go? I have no experience with this kind of thing at all, and this is only my second time flying. Well on the track they are currently calling for Charleston would be totally fine, even more so by Saturday....Philly should be ok as well as the storm will be over NC/VA then if it does indeed come ashore.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, downeastnc said: yeah plenty of time to see this miss to the east......the crappy part is that it probably wont be evident its gonna miss until late in the timeline.....this isnt your typical NC cane hit setup or approach angle though and usually when these type of setup occur they tend to be less wishy washy and come on in....Isabel/Fran etc....both were pretty locked in by 4-5 days out. We knew they were coming and chances of landfall where high. I hear you. It's definitely not a typical approach angle, and that has me a bit more concerned than usual. I'm starting to get real "Fran" vibe when considering the possible impact from this. But then again--that was only 115 at LF. Sheesh. We can't rule out a Hugo intensity at LF at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjtysinger Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Still plenty of time for it to shift either way but what’s concerning to me is this isn’t a normal poleward moving storm. I guess the best hope is for that high to push out faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Ryan Maue | weathermodels.comVerified account @RyanMaue FollowingFollowing @RyanMaue More The most recent HWRF hurricane model suggests #Florence rapidly intensifies to a major hurricane -- and continues to Category 5 on Tuesday. The track in this model closely matches the official NHC forecast. The maximum intensity could be between Category 3 and 5 along the track 8:25 PM - 8 Sep 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ketch Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Got, what may be, one last beach day in today (I'm in ILM...just north of Snows Cut). Gotta say, I was really surprised just how warm the ocean is. 85 degrees. It was almost uncomfortably warm. I'll decide on Monday what we're going to do. The thrill-seeker in me wants to experience it (I've been through a few cat 1 and 2's but nothing like what this may become)...but with a family...its certainly not worth risking life...mine or my family. I'm sure hoping Wilmington doesn't take this one on the chin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said: I hear you. It's definitely not a typical approach angle, and that has me a bit more concerned than usual. I'm starting to get real "Fran" vibe when considering the possible impact from this. But then again--that was only 115 at LF. Sheesh. We can't rule out a Hugo intensity at LF at the moment. That's the thing usually the storms coming at us under a strong ridge off NE ( which is admittedly only a few storms) all came on in and the models had good agreement on that 3-5 days out... Flo could still slow and turn up the coast just offshore, how many times have we seen that happen....its dozens. However when you look at the NHC forecast and models they all agree at least Mon-Thur the storm is hauling ass and strong as hell.....if its gonna slow and miss the models are not seeing it yet and I mean how wrong are they going to be with large scale features in this range? I would feel better about it shifting OTS if there was a larger spread in the models ens but if anything the clustering is getting tighter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Euro is a nightmare for eastern and central nc. Generational type storm. Would devastate our area with wind, surge, and historic flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 People need to remember that she should be a big cat 4 for a few days before landfall. So even if she weakens down to high end 3 at landfall she will still be carrying a big surge especially if she has a big wind field. Lookout down to landfall would see a tremendous surge. Neuse river and the pamlico will be affected as wel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Gfs back to a landfall and less of a stall. Moves it to around Washington,NC and then pulls it north into Virginia. Still a long storm but not as much rain deep inland. So we have a 5 day landfall consensus between myrtle beach and hatters which is both unnerving and remarkable. Plenty of time to change though once the full data gets in the modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 32 minutes ago, shaggy said: Gfs back to a landfall and less of a stall. Moves it to around Washington,NC and then pulls it north into Virginia. Still a long storm but not as much rain deep inland. So we have a 5 day landfall consensus between myrtle beach and hatters which is both unnerving and remarkable. Plenty of time to change though once the full data gets in the modeling. CMC shows landfall between CHS and MYR but point taken as it is a southern outlier, good consensus for a landfall from C/E SC coast to Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 06Z FV3 is worst case landfall location for the south beaches IMO.....it basically comes in Onslow Bay right into Jacksonville, this puts Emerald Isle in the north eyewall and Topsail down to Kure in the south eyewall....basically gives eyewall/inner core conditions to every beach from Cape Lookout to Cape Fear then moves inland to around Wilson maybe putting RDU in the western side if the center...while pounding all of NC east of 95. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 "Very windy" has been added to the local NWS forecast for Fri/Sat. Haven't seen that in a while. Friday Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Very windy. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 I’m shocked at the EPS. Virtually every member is SW of the Euro run with a concentration on Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan63 Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Not trying to be overly dramatic, but does anyone know if the city of Raleigh or NC has provided sandbags in the past? Live in a relatively low lying area so trying to create a plan just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: I’m shocked at the EPS. Virtually every member is SW of the Euro run with a concentration on Charleston. Good comparison of the 12z vs 0z ensemble runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 1 minute ago, BFF said: Good comparison of that vs the 12z ensemble run here Wow you definitely can see the south movement there. Good comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Complete Sunday Morning Florence Package available. PDF File of Sunday Morning Package Key Points: After high altitude sampling of the offshore environment ahead and north of the storm yesterday, the ridge to the NE and N of Florence is now trended to be stronger Ensembles have shifted SW with some members back into South Carolina Sunday 09SEP18 7AM Florence Package Depend on your local NWS office for official information in making all preparation decisions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chucktown81 Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Hopefully this thing goes out to sea. I need some advice but my problems are not even close to what Carolina residents have to deal with, but I am still in need of help. I'm flying into CHS from Philly Wednesday morning to visit my brother, and am supposed to go back Saturday morning. I only go down once a year really and we're supposed to go to an indoor concert in Charleston Friday. Seems like that will get cancelled and I'll get stuck at the airport Saturday. Perhaps I just shouldn't go? I have no experience with this kind of thing at all, and this is only my second time flying.There is still a chance this gets dangerously close to Charleston. Don’t get hung up on the weather weenies here posting each model run as gospel. Charleston is still well within the cone of uncertainty. The models will continue to shift. By Tuesday it should be much clearer as to where this will go and I think you’ll be in a better position to make a call or not to come down to Charleston (I live in downtown CHS btw). If it’s looking like a likely major impact, they will issue evacuation for our area and all of the freeways will be reversed and a **** ton of people go to grocery stores and gas stations at the same time and it will be a little nuts. They would likely make the evacuation call by Wednesday. Went through this with Matthew a few years ago, which wasn’t even that bad of a hurricane. This could be much worse depending on where it lands. Follow official NHC forecasts, not weather weenies, and follow the local news here in chs (twitter is good place to get local news alerts). If it were me, I would definitely continue to plan on coming here as of now, and make the call to come or not on Tuesday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Chucktown81 said: There is still a chance this gets dangerously close to Charleston. Don’t get hung up on the weather weenies here posting each model run as gospel. Charleston is still well within the cone of uncertainty. The models will continue to shift. By Tuesday it should be much clearer as to where this will go and I think you’ll be in a better position to make a call or not to come down to Charleston (I live in downtown CHS btw). If it’s looking like a likely major impact, they will issue evacuation for our area and all of the freeways will be reversed and a **** ton of people go to grocery stores and gas stations at the same time and it will be a little nuts. They would likely make the evacuation call by Wednesday. Went through this with Matthew a few years ago, which wasn’t even that bad of a hurricane. This could be much worse depending on where it lands. Follow official NHC forecasts, not weather weenies, and follow the local news here in chs (twitter is good place to get local news alerts). If it were me, I would definitely continue to plan on coming here as of now, and make the call to come or not on Tuesday. . I was thinking that this could very likely go to GA/SC border; will have to see what today and tomorrow brings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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