Jet Stream Rider Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Landfall Wrightsville Beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 man that eye took a dead SW hook by looking at the Weather Channel coverage radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 14, 2018 Author Share Posted September 14, 2018 Official highest gust at Wilmington is 105mph. Off to the southwest she goes, probably get back over water in Brunswick county. Bad news for Holden Beach, my family vacation spot for 25 years straight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 It really did. Almost like its rolling down the coast there just north of Carolina Beach. Learned last night an old friend was riding it out at Carolina Beach. Hope he is OK. Might actually get into the eye. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 the big story is gonna be surge.....reports that the bridge on Back Creek in Bath is underwater.....to me that is just insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Latest graphic on current wind field, tropical wind percentage and arrival time. Looks to get quite windy here tonight. Already getting gusts to low 30’s here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 It wilp be interesting to see what the rain shield does now that Florence has made landfall. It appears at the moment that we'll be right on the northern edge of heavier bands and the concentrated rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 1 minute ago, GunBlade said: Latest graphic on current wind field, tropical wind percentage and arrival time. Looks to get quite windy here tonight. Already getting gusts to low 30’s here. Thats pretty accurate we gusted 50-60 all night nothing to bad.....takes more than that to drop trees around here lol.....there are a few Bradford Pears mangled etc but over all we have do ok its probably on par with Matthew and considerably less than Irene wind wise.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Yea our neighborhood just cut down a dozen or so Bradford pears proactively this past year after the snow we got last winter took out a few. They’re not built for the weather we get here. Otherwise lots of pine and hardwood trees that will be fine if the soil doesn’t give out. Precip totals also look to be down a couple inches around here and little less overall compared to prior runs. Showed getting close to 15 here on some prior runs. More like 7-9 now on most models which seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Very tight gradient on precip out here near GSP! Think the Euro gets me 5-7”, GFS gets me like 1”. On Euro, two counties over to my East gets 11” plus! Highest wind gust forecasted is 50-55 on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Likewise in Charleston. I could see us getting 6 inches or hardly anything at all. Just depends on how much to the south this thing is able to make it. Right now it's sunny and breezy. The only things coming down are loose leaves, sticks, and pine straw but the clouds are really moving quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Looks like it’s headed back over the Atlantic after it cuts through Southport. That’s bad news for MB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 1 hour ago, NCSNOW said: Official highest gust at Wilmington is 105mph. Off to the southwest she goes, probably get back over water in Brunswick county. Bad news for Holden Beach, my family vacation spot for 25 years straight. We've had a home there for the past 40 years. I so hope that it makes it through this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 from crankywxguy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 ^ However, ECMWF nailed the general location of landfall 9 days out, before Florence was even a hurricane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 12 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said: ^ However, ECMWF nailed the general location of landfall 9 days out, before Florence was even a hurricane. Cranky is a EURO hater this time of year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Dawn as Florence makes landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 1 hour ago, GunBlade said: Yea our neighborhood just cut down a dozen or so Bradford pears proactively this past year after the snow we got last winter took out a few. They’re not built for the weather we get here. Otherwise lots of pine and hardwood trees that will be fine if the soil doesn’t give out. Precip totals also look to be down a couple inches around here and little less overall compared to prior runs. Showed getting close to 15 here on some prior runs. More like 7-9 now on most models which seems reasonable. The NWS in GSP says 10-15 inches across the CLT metro. Either way that's a lot of rain. They seem to be going pretty conservative with winds though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 19 minutes ago, Snovary said: from crankywxguy Just a note that this is a bias chart for wind speed, but the verification numbers for the storm track show the Euro as the worst performing model as well for the 4-5 day forecast (of the major models). Just thinking thru the model in runs in my head though, I feel like the Euro latched onto some of the better ideas with this storm. When the GFS and UKMet were stuck up in the Outer Banks, the Euro had runs with it in SE NC or down in SC. As is usually the case, a model blend is usually best. You can get the verification charts here - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/ The Euro did bump north last night, with it falling more in line with the Hurr Center track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Brad PanovichVerified account @wxbrad 2m2 minutes ago I cannot empathize the inland flood threat enough including the #Charlotte area where 5-10" of rain is possible This starts Saturday and lasts into Monday. #Florence #cltwx #ncwx #scwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Been more tornados spinning up this morning...there are several unwarned rotations ATM and a few that have/are warned ( they happen fast and last a frame or two at best ) as the center drifts WSW those bands will be all over eastern/central NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freebird581bd Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 It really did. Almost like its rolling down the coast there just north of Carolina Beach. Learned last night an old friend was riding it out at Carolina Beach. Hope he is OK. Might actually get into the eye.Me as well, my wife mentioned his daughter and I knew who it was then, as I went to school with her. She showed me some of the stuff he had put on Facebook. Hope he is OK as well. Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, griteater said: Just a note that this is a bias chart for wind speed, but the verification numbers for the storm track show the Euro as the worst performing model as well for the 4-5 day forecast (of the major models). Just thinking thru the model in runs in my head though, I feel like the Euro latched onto some of the better ideas with this storm. When the GFS and UKMet were stuck up in the Outer Banks, the Euro had runs with it in SE NC or down in SC. As is usually the case, a model blend is usually best. You can get the verification charts here - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/ The Euro did bump north last night, with it falling more in line with the Hurr Center track. Thanks for the explanation Grit. That helps. Euro is known to overdo wind speeds, kinda like the NAM is (or was) known to overdo QPF. Euro seems best at long range positions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Philippe Papin has a model floater setup for his maps of the high resolution HRRR - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php. At 2AM tonight, the eye has only moved to a position just west of N Myrtle Beach. The map here is showing the radar reflectivity at 2AM and the total rainfall over the 18 hr period of the model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 1000 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018 ...EYE OF HURRICANE FLORENCE STILL WOBBLING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... NOAA Doppler weather radar data and surface observations indicate that the center of the eye of Hurricane Florence has been wobbling southwestward near the coast of southeastern North Carolina. A buoy operated by the CORMP program southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina recently reported a wind gust of 76 mph (122 km/h). A station operated by Weatherflow at Federal Point, North Carolina, recently reported a pressure of 961.0 mb (28.38 in). SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 78.0W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Never though if be sitting here with a eye over Wilmington and not being worried it was headed north bit SOUTH. Take the radar in for minute and realize you are watching something that has never happened in recorded history. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Still heading due SW, this keeps going it might be a direct landfall in Myrtle Beach instead of sliding in to the north. Areas to the south end of the envelope just got put back on notice (I'm still under a TS Warning until further notice). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Not good!!! WITN-TV 19 mins · All NOAA weather radio sites in eastern North Carolina have been knocked out by winds or power issues. That means that no Tornado Warnings or Flash Flood alerts will get through. Your best bet is to check out our Facebook Live until that big problem is fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 B roll footage of New Bern.....unreal https://wcti12.com/news/local/hurricane-damage-from-the-eyewall-destroys-north-carolina-marina 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Brad P Update for his viewing area, in particular: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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