Solak Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 50 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yeah Euro real ugly for the Triangle to the coast.......probably 3-4 millions without power that run.... That 96 over my house... that's the temp and not wind speed, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 14 minutes ago, Solak said: That 96 over my house... that's the temp and not wind speed, right? Honestly it would be like that all over I think, Fran was really bad on her NW side the center was 75-100 mile SW of PGV and we gusted to 110 so that track with that kind of storm would be the windiest hurricane in interior NC since Hazel, especially with the deep ridge off to the NE to really pack the gradient on that east and north sides...and then there is this....luckily the rivers are low but I dont know if they can deal with this..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 So , not gonna post pictures since it's still loading. but 18z GFS is pushing a Harvey scenario with an almost stall on the obx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 10 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: So , not gonna post pictures since it's still loading. but 18z GFS is pushing a Harvey scenario with an almost stall on the obx. Ya, she's trapped. HP to the North, she won't move until that HP slides in and kicks her OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 18 minutes ago, JoshM said: I just can't even imagine what 20"+ rain and gale to hurricane force winds would do to the trees and power lines in our area if that were to happen!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 So the main thread needs a mod or two badly....time to go scorched earth over there...... GFS smokin crack crazy loop and dumps a insane amount of rain.....that plus the constant onshore flow would back the rivers up with surge and just make this friggen terrible....good thing this is a pretty unlikely scenario...at least the OBX wouldnt need to worry about flooding from the 3 ft of rain they get since surge would already be taking care of the flooding.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 WOW JUST WOW!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 10 minutes ago, downeastnc said: So the main thread needs a mod or two badly....time to go scorched earth over there...... GFS smokin crack crazy loop and dumps a insane amount of rain.....that plus the constant onshore flow would back the rivers up with surge and just make this friggen terrible....good thing this is a pretty unlikely scenario...at least the OBX wouldnt need to worry about flooding from the 3 ft of rain they get since surge would already be taking care of the flooding.... That is just unreal. 35.3" for me and almost 50" for Hatteras!! That model also has it hanging around as a cat 4 for 3 to 4 days. Very unlikely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 yeah the GFS is drunk and needs to go home.....though that is the weird meandering crap these storms do if the steering currents get weak.....still of all the outputs this has to be the least likely....they said that about Harvey last year too though..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 Diana 1984 looped and hollowed itself out...cat 4 down to kinda crappy cat 2 before landfall. #garbagehistory 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: Diana 1984 looped and hollowed itself out...cat 4 down to kinda crappy cat 2 before landfall. #garbagehistory Here, go ahead and see what kind of storm surge could be expected from a cat 2 on the outer banks and surrounding locations. http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=d9ed7904dbec441a9c4dd7b277935fad&entry=1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 7h7 hours ago More Models change, our forecast does not. If I am going to change ideas, will likely be next Wednesday. Same biases remain in models, same physical conditions, They dont change every 6 hours enough for one run to mean more than another 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 This is getting really scary. Hope she goes out to see, but looks like the tightest clusters from the model runs are between Charleston and Wilmington for landfall, and at least a cat 4 when it hits. This could be worse than Fran. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 It seems like the GFS is printing out that bonkers loop/stall solution because it might be having trouble resolving the strength of the WAR? Perhaps it ends up correcting south a bit at 00Z once it ingests the dropsonde data? Either way, tough to rule out any solution between perhaps GA and OTS at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 19 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: This is getting really scary. Hope she goes out to see, but looks like the tightest clusters from the model runs are between Charleston and Wilmington for landfall, and at least a cat 4 when it hits. This could be worse than Fran. I agree, Florence may be the sum of all fears... I don't understand those dudes up in maryland rooting for it to go up the Chesapeake, makes me wonder, do they even get it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 27 minutes ago, BFF said: It seems like the GFS is printing out that bonkers loop/stall solution because it might be having trouble resolving the strength of the WAR? Perhaps it ends up correcting south a bit at 00Z once it ingests the dropsonde data? Either way, tough to rule out any solution between perhaps GA and OTS at this point. Will the data collected this afternoon be incorporated into tonight's 00Z model run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 HWRF on the Euro train for now....130 mph at landfall RIP south beaches.....North Topsail down to Kure beach would just be obliterated..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, ncskywarn said: Will the data collected this afternoon be incorporated into tonight's 00Z model run? Yup... Hoping for some clarity 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 11 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said: I agree, Florence may be the sum of all fears... I don't understand those dudes up in maryland rooting for it to go up the Chesapeake, makes me wonder, do they even get it? I and DownEast,, Digress.. I'm sure He agree's I hope pulled he button on that genset. I started mine.. got gas cans at the ready .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, SENC said: I and DownEast,, Digress.. I'm sure He agree's I hope pulled he button on that genset. I started mine.. got gas cans at the ready .. I can hold off till tomorrow afternoon on the gennie...found one on Amazon with Prime I can get it Thur even if I order it tomorrow......so if the models consensus still shows the ILM north towards me scenario at 12Z tomorrow I will order it. The model spread is not very large now and this is starting to look like a typical climo NC/SC border hit moving NNW to NNE over central/eastern NC.....I am officially concerned, a Cat 1-2 bring it on Cat 3 or better go OTS please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Don't wait until the last minute.. Gas cans will be gone" AND" no gas to be had.. do it NOW.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 The FV3 closer to the Euro now without the annoying loops though it does stall a bit....this run would probably give me the eye so if I gotta deal with the cane at least I have that to potentially look forward too..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 The pattern def doesnt favor a recurve, but I guess it's possible if it stalls offshore and a northern stream wave comes along. That scenario is generally unlikely this far north in latitude imo. I see an ilm track at this point, but still a long way to go. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 If you have NG at your house and a hookup or propane buy a motor snorkel. We did last year bc we have a NG hookup for our grill. Works amazing! Turns any carbuerated gen into a Tri fuel and takes maybe 30 minutes to install. Also runs cleaner and more efficient with propane and NG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 1 hour ago, SENC said: I and DownEast,, Digress.. I'm sure He agree's I hope pulled he button on that genset. I started mine.. got gas cans at the ready .. I'll tell you, remember hurricane mathew a few years back? I was living in wilminton at the time, only a cat 1 (first hurricane I'd experienced), but when you see long leaf pines bending in ways they shouldnt over someones house, knowing they could snap at any moment will scare the bajeebus outta you. And the noise of it all I'll never forget... Then driving back through lumberton the amount of tree damage was surprising for how far in land they were. Straight line winds can maximize gust potential very quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 17 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said: I'll tell you, remember hurricane mathew a few years back? I was living in wilminton at the time, only a cat 1 (first hurricane I'd experienced), but when you see long leaf pines bending in ways they shouldnt over someones house, knowing they could snap at any moment will scare the bajeebus outta you. And the noise of it all I'll never forget... Then driving back through lumberton the amount of tree damage was surprising for how far in land they were. Straight line winds can maximize gust potential very quickly. You can hear them big gust coming....in every hurricane I have been in there is the normal steady roar but the big gust have a certain "rumble" to them and you can always hear the bigger gust coming sometimes for a min or two, and they are spaced out so you hear them coming then they hit then for a few mins its just the steady wind sound then your start to hear a rumble again etc etc etc, the closer to the center you get the faster the bigger gust come......and in Bertha we got the eye and you could hear ( and feel ) the rumble of the backside coming for a good 5 mins before the wind kicked back up. Its surreal how the winds went for almost totally calm to gusting steady 60-80 in just a couple of mins..... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobNC Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 If a Cat 3+ actually did hover over the OBX for three days, I'm not sure if there would be anything left there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, JacobNC said: If a Cat 3+ actually did hover over the OBX for three days, I'm not sure if there would be anything left there. That really makes me sad. My favorite place in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 3 hours ago, the ghost of leroy said: Diana 1984 looped and hollowed itself out...cat 4 down to kinda crappy cat 2 before landfall. #garbagehistory I was wondering when someone would bring that up,, honestly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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