BretWx Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Starting to feel like we're in for a surprise: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=vis https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, BretWheatley said: Starting to feel like we're in for a surprise: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=vis https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir she has really been getting better organized over the next few hours. alot of models have florence strengthening a little before landfall. with recent ir and visible loops i don't see why it couldn't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 11 minutes ago, GunBlade said: And even if it doesn’t strengthen, it’s no longer a comma Hurricane and has really built back up the south side of the storm which will only further worsen surge etc... to the north of the eye wall. Looks like the HWRF from yesterday! Doughnut like! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Atlantic Beach pier cam is getting ROCKED!! Hard to tell but I think it is missing pieces at least on the right side vs what I saw before. No way that pier stands up to 12+ hours of this pounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mryanwilkes Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Atlantic Beach pier cam is getting ROCKED!! Hard to tell but I think it is missing pieces at least on the right side vs what I saw before. No way that pier stands up to 12+ hours of this pounding. Do you have a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 minute ago, mryanwilkes said: Do you have a link? Go to ablivesurf.com 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Had an intense band come thru and knocked out our power but once the rain and winds let up, it came back on. I thought we were done with power for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Atlantic Beach pier cam is getting ROCKED!! Hard to tell but I think it is missing pieces at least on the right side vs what I saw before. No way that pier stands up to 12+ hours of this pounding. I don’t think it’s missing any yet but this was a picture I posted earlier comparing yesterday to this morning. The camera wasn’t moving at all then. Unlike it being battered all around now. You could see the end of the pier rocking and swaying with each breaker earlier so yea I don’t think it will last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowCountryCat Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Just had a look at the Euro ensembles. Still a surprising spread for only 60 hour forecast. Many tracks south like the op run. There is quite a difference now between GFS and Euro at hour 60. Euro has had a left bias this storm though I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 47 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said: And this is the kind of thing that I'm definitely watching out for. Don't have an models or the NHC in front of me at the moment, but wasn't that turn supposed to happen later tonight? Yes. The bend back supposed to start later. Magic number is 34.0°N now...also could be everything determining an actual landfall versus a skirt on SE NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Hot towers starting to show some urgency in encompassing the center, leading in from the south side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Lower, Slower 5:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 Location: 33.7°N 76.2°W Moving: WNW at 5 mph Min pressure: 955 mb Max sustained: 100 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Solak said: Lower, Slower 5:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 Location: 33.7°N 76.2°W Moving: WNW at 5 mph Min pressure: 955 mb Max sustained: 100 mph Unless I'm reading the recon reports wrong the recon went thru the eye very recently and found 952.5mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 High Res NAM brings Florence in a little faster than other versions. Most of NC Piedmont and upstate SC would have a windy day Saturday, if this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 49 minutes ago, timnc910 said: she has really been getting better organized over the next few hours. alot of models have florence strengthening a little before landfall. with recent ir and visible loops i don't see why it couldn't happen Yea, the NHC was very clear that this evening she was moving out of a shear environment and over warm waters with favorable conditions to strengthen. Not unheard of for a storm to ramp up a notch just before landfall. I recall Charley doing that just before landfall. Charley jumped from a messy Cat 2 to a very intense organized cat 4 in like three hours - right next to Florida. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 This is a few miles down the road from me. Probably why my power went out initially. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderwolf Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Looks like after that reorganization of the eye that its drifting northwestward again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Really starting to wrap up that inner core based on IR, radar may be a little slow to respond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, thunderwolf said: Looks like after that reorganization of the eye that its drifting northwestward again. Yea almost took a straight north jump in the last frame or two of the water vapor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Atlantic beach pier cam is offline now. And the tide is coming in with high tide around 11:00 pm. Waters really going to start pushing in more now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, GunBlade said: Yea almost took a straight north jump in the last frame or two of the water vapor. Do you mind providing a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 NAM 3km shows landfall near Wrightsville Beach at 12z Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, GunBlade said: Yea almost took a straight north jump in the last frame or two of the water vapor. Yeah nice little north wobble, eye is around 40 miles and its getting stronger and the IR looks much better lets see what she does, I still think there is a chance she powers in around J'ville to Swansboro before heading W then WSW...a few more hrs of this motion and she will be totally north of the NHC landfall plot.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, cmh90 said: Do you mind providing a link? Good IR loop that seems to agree with a north move: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir We're about to have 1000 arguments over "moving" vs. "wobble" though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 It could be a wobble. Might wobble due west next, might not. Time will tell. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=wv-mid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yeah nice little north wobble, eye is around 40 miles and its getting stronger and the IR looks much better lets see what she does, I still think there is a chance she powers in around J'ville to Swansboro before heading W then WSW...a few more hrs of this motion and she will be totally north of the NHC landfall plot.... Yeah, that last north move makes me think Cape Lookout rather than Cape Fear. Doubt it will be that pronounced though, but something like you say is certainly on the table. Surf City maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 10 minutes ago, RTPGiants said: Good IR loop that seems to agree with a north move: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir We're about to have 1000 arguments over "moving" vs. "wobble" though. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 29 minutes ago, cmh90 said: Do you mind providing a link? https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=nwatl&product=wv-mid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Well. Fishel came on wringing his hands a little. Said the Triangle has greater chances of up to 50mph or so now. More to the south. Said it isn’t as bad a Fran was but this is a long period of time and it could be significant in places. Well great. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Updated from WPC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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