WeatherNC Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 While recon shows the center fixes bending left, my educated guess is the half-a-eyewall is bouncing around a broader maxima based on microwave and will likely continue to wobble wnw-nw until late this evening. It does appear though the slow down has begun per satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 2:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 Location: 33.6°N 76.0°W Moving: NW at 10 mph Min pressure: 955 mb Max sustained: 105 mph 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Latest Euro hasn't changed. Moves the storm SW down the SC coastline toward Charleston, then west into southern SC...much like today's UKMet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, griteater said: Latest Euro hasn't changed. Moves the storm SW down the SC coastline toward Charleston, then west into southern SC...much like today's UKMet If this was a snowstorm in January, it would be north, north, north every run. 2 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Eastern eyewall is pretty much gone. Is it doing an eyewall replacement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crowndawg007 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: If this was a snowstorm in January, it would be north, north, north every run. VERY VERY TRUE!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: I am seriously doubting those numbers. It is calling for 24" for us and as of right now I have only had .16" and I live just southeast of NB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: If this was a snowstorm in January, it would be north, north, north every run. Any way you cut it, there's going to be a local min over SE Wake county. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: Any way you cut it, there's going to be a local min over SE Wake county. And there's no getting around that. When it becomes available, someone please post a precip map for the Euro. TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 From 11am to 2pm. Florence moved .2°N to .5°W and looks like she continues to slow down and bend left. NHC official plot line is 34°N INLAND... Florence may not even make it to 34°N now... all the guidance to some degree show a WSW component. Very critical downstream on effects in SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: And there's no getting around that. When it becomes available, someone please post a precip map for the Euro. TIA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Thanks, BFF. Looks like the Triangle area is going to end up ok. Some decent rain showers and gusty winds, but that's about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Thanks, BFF. Looks like the Triangle area is going to end up ok. Some decent rain showers and gusty winds, but that's about it. GFS gives me about 1” of rain, Euro 7-10” range! Model madness! If I get 3”, I’ll call it a win! One of the models has me getting a 56 mph wind gust! That’ll bring a tree or two down! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: GFS gives me about 1” of rain, Euro 7-10” range! Model madness! If I get 3”, I’ll call it a win! One of the models has me getting a 56 mph wind gust! That’ll bring a tree or two down! I noticed that too - a big difference on ne ga and upstate rainfall totals right now. its hard to know which one to believe lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: GFS gives me about 1” of rain, Euro 7-10” range! Model madness! If I get 3”, I’ll call it a win! One of the models has me getting a 56 mph wind gust! That’ll bring a tree or two down! I know which model I'd rather have in my camp! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Ukie has been putting down some big totals the last few runs.That's 50'' south of Wilmington. Ukie day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: GFS gives me about 1” of rain, Euro 7-10” range! Model madness! If I get 3”, I’ll call it a win! One of the models has me getting a 56 mph wind gust! That’ll bring a tree or two down! Two things come to mind Mack. Go with the Euro, You always get the big totals, Rain or Snow!! and It's #1 in accuracy! Be safe down there........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 UK and EURO both hit same areas near ILM with heaviest rainfall, GFS is a bit northeast. EURO does not have the crazy totals that the GFS and UK have. Would take some very persistent traning with heavy bands to get what the UK/GFS are implying. But that stuff is somewhat storm structure dependent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Not sure if this is Spectrum news in-house model but it shows some pretty gusty winds for the whole state. That’ll definitely bring down some trees.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Not familiar with the ILM area, but how would it cope with 40 inches of rain lol? Looking at this thing starting to stall out (already), I'm starting to think some of these estimates may be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 crankyweatherguy @crankywxguy 4m4 minutes ago Close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 55 minutes ago, Stormsfury said: From 11am to 2pm. Florence moved .2°N to .5°W and looks like she continues to slow down and bend left. NHC official plot line is 34°N INLAND... Florence may not even make it to 34°N now... all the guidance to some degree show a WSW component. Very critical downstream on effects in SC. And this is the kind of thing that I'm definitely watching out for. Don't have an models or the NHC in front of me at the moment, but wasn't that turn supposed to happen later tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 20 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Not familiar with the ILM area, but how would it cope with 40 inches of rain lol? Looking at this thing starting to stall out (already), I'm starting to think some of these estimates may be right. It won't be good, Lumber and Cape Fear basins, based on RAH's historical graphics, Floyd + Dennis type total plus 10" in a single event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 minute ago, WeatherNC said: It won't be good, Lumber and Cape Fear basins, based on RAH's historical graphics, Floyd and Dennis type total plus 10" in a single event. Good news here is those river basins are way way below their levels when Matthew hit so they can (for awhile) absorb the downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 No recent microwave but if IR as any indication, structure is finally looking more favorable for slow strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 13, 2018 Author Share Posted September 13, 2018 Bad News is the sandwich effect and duration. That surge is gonna push back on all the river basins, large areas of sounds, the big rivers are and will be flowing in reverse direction for another 48 hours possibly. Then you got 48 hours of rain coming down with nowhere to drain to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=mhx&gage=chin7 this is the forecasted river level which is within a mile of my house the record level was when floyd hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: No recent microwave but if IR as any indication, structure is finally looking more favorable for slow strengthening. And even if it doesn’t strengthen, it’s no longer a comma Hurricane and has really built back up the south side of the storm which will only further worsen surge etc... to the north of the eye wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, timnc910 said: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=mhx&gage=chin7 this is the forecasted river level which is within a mile of my house the record level was when floyd hit How much above that gauge level are you? Do you know? anything under 30' I would be concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 im at 12' above that gauge 11 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: How much above that gauge level are you? Do you know? anything under 35-40' I would be concerned. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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