downeastnc Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Solak said: crankyweatherguy @crankywxguy 42m42 minutes ago Continues to ride north of the 5pm cone. After they adjusted the 5pm cone north because...it was riding north of the 11am cone. Yeah, that's kind of a trend. On her current heading she will go right into Drum Inlet EAST of Cape Lookout.....she is still moving NW at a good clip as well....its gonna take a big slowdown or sharper turn to get her were NHC has her hitting....again though being NE of track now doesnt mean she wont correct with a quicker turn etc....but it also makes you wonder if the models like HMON/GFS/CMC etc that all jumped up to a J'ville to MHX landfall moving west and then more inland over interior eastern NC might be on to something.....if the Euro/Ukie/FV3 dont make a decent move north at 00Z then I think the NHC has it nailed but they are sweating that NE of track trend.....the 00Z track guidence suggest they wont move much at all....doesnt mean they are right either though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 I'm just thankful we're (SE Coast) not staring down the barrel of a 155mph beast like they thought 2 days ago. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Its interesting to note the entire rain shield is likely displaced north of the coc right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighNC Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, bigshaq00 said: according to weather channel on television they now have Raleigh area at 7 inches of rain from this storm compared to the 1-3 earlier today Fish has said all along that there will be a steep gradient from one end of Wake County to the other. Folks down in Fuquay are going to get a lot. Falls Lake, maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 minute ago, HKY_WX said: Its interesting to note the entire rain shield is likely displaced north of the coc right now. We spent days thinking this wouldn't be the usual east coast half a cane on approach and, umm, oops? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Dunkman said: We spent days thinking this wouldn't be the usual east coast half a cane on approach and, umm, oops? Too much modelology on this one. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 What has been the reason this thing has been steadily weakening in the face of what has continually been modeled to be a good environment for strengthening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 minute ago, HKY_WX said: Too much modelology on this one. Outflow looks to be improving on he south side as she gets away from that TUTT.....and she has fired storm all around the center, with 18-24 hrs to go who knows what she will do...she could still get 120-130 again....still 110-120 seems more likely just based on climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: What has been the reason this thing has been steadily weakening in the face of what has continually been modeled to be a good environment for strengthening? Upper level wind shear sending dry air into the southern half of the system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Brad Panovich Verified account @wxbrad 1m1 minute ago More 11pm Update on #Florence Weaker and slowing down. #cltwx #ncwx #scwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Sounds like they bumped the track north a touch but not much bring it in maybe 15-20 miles north of Cape Fear havent seen the graphic yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 No, the path keeps heading south overall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 It’s hard to see on radar since it’s happening in the upper atmosphere. Water vapor helps give some visual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Well, landfall might be a touch north, but the overall track of the storm after landfall continues to head further and further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 The intensity forecast has really diminished significantly. No sign of the "M" designation near the coast anymore. Current wind speed has dropped once again too. Down to 110 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, calculus1 said: Well, landfall might be a touch north, but the overall track of the storm after landfall continues to head further and further south. I think that will turn out not to happen...that really far south track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 #Florence is getting OWNED by wind shear! Potential it might be an elevated Tropical Storm at landfall... Time to stop shoveling coal into the hype-train; wind, surge and precip will be dangerous, but now significantly lower with this storm: https://t.co/eJ3ufwsY69 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 ICON is West at 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 She also went from 975mb and 85mph winds to 939mb and 140 mph winds in 24 hours once before..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, UpstateSCBud said: #Florence is getting OWNED by wind shear! Potential it might be an elevated Tropical Storm at landfall... Time to stop shoveling coal into the hype-train; wind, surge and precip will be dangerous, but now significantly lower with this storm: https://t.co/eJ3ufwsY69 The shear is still forecast to subside 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 I think the weakening is temporary. IR looks significantly better than the previous 8 hrs. Might not become a cat 4 again, but no reason to believe it can’t be a major hurricane at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, GunBlade said: She also went from 975mb and 85mph winds to 939mb and 140 mph winds in 24 hours once before..... Right 120 is just as likely as 100 at this point...the shear is backing off some and she has a solid core and 24ish hrs left over bathwater..... ICON pretty much the same has landfall up over Jville/Swansboro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 ICON pounding Triangle to the coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 ICON is West at 21. Edit: makes landfall near North Topsail at 33 and is moving West inland at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 13 minutes ago, calculus1 said: The intensity forecast has really diminished significantly. No sign of the "M" designation near the coast anymore. Current wind speed has dropped once again too. Down to 110 mph. Yeah, I remember just yesterday the NHC was forecasting this thing to ramp up to 140-155 MPH leading up to landfall (though weakening as it got closer to the coast), so it’s definitely a lot weaker than expected, at least as far as maximum sustained winds go. As it is, it’s down to category 2 and they aren’t forecasting it to make it back to a major hurricane now. Of course, they could just as easily be wrong and underdo the winds now, but we usually tend to see storms weaken as they close in on the coast, not strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Water level at wrightesville beach is getting higher, waves are looking pretty robust. http://surfchex.com/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, ncskywarn said: Link is not working. yea sorry crashed right when i posted try this one http://surfchex.com/cams/carolina-beach-web-cam/ hopefully the oceanic's cam will be back on soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Disco-lemonade said: yea sorry crashed right when i posted try this one http://surfchex.com/cams/carolina-beach-web-cam/ Sorry I deleted my reply it started workingf again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 ICON landfall plot right on mouth of New River.....maybe 20-30 miles north of official NHC track...but it goes more west inland and doesnt take a immediate SW turn and honestly this seems more realistic since it doesnt stall the turn SW will be more subtle..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Just remember it's a whole lot easier for a nascent hurricane or old swirl to RI than it is a giant, tilted, sheared hurricane with 3 different concentric eyewalls. That being said, if this storm can manage to get it's core in order in time for the gulf stream passage, then yeah, expect a second wind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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