griteater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 It's moving slowly across southern SC hr96-108....loads of rain across most of SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 euro and gfs not far off, euro just a bit more offshore but both take very similar paths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 hr114-126 it moves into E GA, then into the western upstate of SC. More rain in SC, with rain now focused from Columbia to upstate into western NC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowCountryCat Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: euro and gfs not far off, euro just a bit more offshore but both take very similar paths. Yes, maybe 50 mile difference. Remarkable agreement for a 3-4 day forecast. I've decided to evacuate after holding out this long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Euro is a slow crawl with the storm center Mon into Tues up into W NC and E TN with plenty of rain along an axis from Columbia to Boone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Well crap, just got word my Generator will not arrive today as expected. They say tomorrow or Friday but I seriously doubt it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiatt66 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, yotaman said: Well crap, just got word my Generator will not arrive today as expected. They say tomorrow or Friday but I seriously doubt it. Mine too. Says Friday. I don't believe it. lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I'm in Jacksonville and because of the latest slight shift in the track south everyone is saying its not going to hit here and be bad; man are they in for a rude awakening with the flooding. Looking at the visible satellite this is amazing to look out, outflow clouds are now penetrating the coast. Keeping everything charged so I can provide you all some videos 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 On the last recon pass they measured category 2 surface winds 50 miles north from the center. I think pretty much every model has the storm getting that close or closer to Jacksonville at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duncana12 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Could someone post up the EURO total rainfall map for western NC. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 SC Governor McMaster says over 300K have evacuated SC coast so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Even with this southern track, the euro has gusts in southern wake up close to 60mph. Will be interesting if it's too far south by say 25 or 50 miles. Will make a huge difference for the triangle with regards to gusts (example 60mph vs 80mph). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Q: how is it weaking when its dealing with almost perfect conditions? Or is a situation it's due to the large eye the wind is less concentrated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 10 minutes ago, Duncana12 said: Could someone post up the EURO total rainfall map for western NC. Thanks Euro at day 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Even with this southern track, the euro has gusts in southern wake up close to 60mph. Will be interesting if it's too far south by say 25 or 50 miles. Will make a huge difference for the triangle with regards to gusts (example 60mph vs 80mph). That's well within the margin of error, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Euro has a wicked squall line coming through the W.Piedmont/central NC around 129-138.Looks to be what's left of the eyewall and might be the worst of it for those areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 13 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: Euro at day 6 13" of rain for me... The Edisto river is going to flood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Q: how is it weaking when its dealing with almost perfect conditions? Or is a situation it's due to the large eye the wind is less concentrated?Pulling in dry air.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, tramadoc said: Pulling in dry air. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk The eye is contracting now so it should be stronger again at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 21 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Even with this southern track, the euro has gusts in southern wake up close to 60mph. Will be interesting if it's too far south by say 25 or 50 miles. Will make a huge difference for the triangle with regards to gusts (example 60mph vs 80mph). Nightmare scenario for forecasting . Like you said a shift of 25 to 50 miles north will change the wind forecast for everyone in the central coastal plains to the piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Euro Ensemble Mean is much like its last run. Storm moves into Wilmington area, then moves SW, where the mean is actually just off the SC coast (same as last run). This run is slower with the progression SW thru the SC coast...so, an increasing heavy rainfall threat in eastern / NE South Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro Ensemble Mean is much like its last run. Storm moves into Wilmington area, then moves SW, where the mean is actually just off the SC coast (same as last run). This run is slower with the progression SW thru the SC coast...so, an increasing heavy rainfall threat in eastern / NE South Carolina. Also more time over water (ie the Gulf Stream) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Here is the 240 hour 12Z Euro map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 She is about to run right out of the north side of the NHC cone lol.....it doesnt imply the NHC track is wrong down the road.....just that its wrong right now.....I cant figure out how to link a loop of her with the NHC track overlay from CIMSS.....so do it yourself http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=06L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: She is about to run right out of the north side of the NHC cone lol.....it doesnt imply the NHC track is wrong down the road.....just that its wrong right now.....I cant figure out how to link a loop of her with the NHC track overlay from CIMSS.....so do it yourself http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=06L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0 This is what I was thinking. Looks to be coming in high and hot. A little north and a little faster than NHC advisory. Its tricky visually out in the ocean, if there is a variance I'm sure model runs and new advisories will account for it, but it sure is nerve racking thinking its high and hot with so little room for error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Especially when it seems like everything has been trending south for a while now. I'm anxiously looking forward to the NHC's next update. I'm also curious about how they handle all the models that keep showing southwest movement off the coast on this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Yeah she is really coming in high and hot by a full degree longitude 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 We are praying for your safety in the Carolinas and for a weaker storm. Stay safe everyone. 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Outer bands are now showing up on long range radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Marshall-South Carolina game Saturday night cancelled because of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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