Wow Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 FV3 GFS is Wilmington to Myrtle Beach to Greenville SC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 16 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said: 12z GFS makes landfall on Friday vicinity of Wrightsville Beach. That is far enough north to cause some power outages in parts of central and eastern NC especially downeast NC and the sandhills. Raleigh will feel it in this position. Don't let your guard down, Florence is an impressively strong storm and obviously very dangerous. If the GFS is to be believed. Right now I'm not model hugging anymore like I was. Just too many solutions. Following the NHC products for about another 24hrs or until better consensus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, bigshaq00 said: what can we expect in cary i see the models show a little bit on rain but the news will then say only 2-3 inches i have no idea what to do Honestly? Following WRAL attm. Winds gusting to 43mph at peak time. No real clear indication on precip amts. Thinking way more than 2-3 inches. 5-7 inches more likely and maybe up to 8 inches of rain. This thing is big and a slow mover so lots of water over an extended period of time is a bad combination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 43 minutes ago, tramadoc said: I explained the reasoning behind your comment and what Michael Ventrice tweeted. BTW, good to see you brother!! Looking forward to some winter tracking with you again this year. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk I'm looking forward to it too, stay safe during Florence! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 10 minutes ago, CaryWx said: If he GFS is to be believed. Right now I not model hugging anymore like i was. Just too many solutions. Following the NHC products for about another 24hrs or until better consensus That is wise. I think we will all be watching on Friday to see position and movement. Position changes will make a difference well inland as we have discussed. Note that the wind field including the extent of tropical storm force winds and hurricane force winds is expanding in the real time analysis of Florence. Also note that there is nothing in the current GFS run that contradicts the NHC products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 12, 2018 Author Share Posted September 12, 2018 12z summary. Every model land falls New Hanover or Pender county NC. Did the canadian get onslow? Any way you slice it the surge is gonna be a nightmare from Wilmington up to ocracoke right past Morehead City. But despite this and the big wind, the flash flooding then river flooding to follow espeacilly in southern coastal plain is gonna be one for the ages I'm afraid. And that's saying alot after what's taken place just the past 20 years on our coast and enc. All eyes on euro and its ensembles to see if they kiss the same landfall point mentioned above by the 12z suite before doing the slow death crawl all weekend across SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 44 minutes ago, No snow for you said: So in snow we hug the model that shows the most amount of snow but really know the model that is correct is the one that shows the least. Which model do we follow in this case? Depends on your location! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hickory Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I feel like Topsail Island will be totally devastated after this. Am gonna hate to see the pictures from that area after this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Add HRWF/HMON to the models showing a SE NC landfall. The NC beaches are about to be redesigned. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 The size is pretty impressive when laid over a state 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 So how about this forecast for Greensboro from RAH... is this their way of telling folks not to let their guard down? Seems a little over the top to me based on the forecasts... Thoughts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 22 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: 12z summary. Every model land falls New Hanover or Pender county NC. Did the canadian get onslow? Any way you slice it the surge is gonna be a nightmare from Wilmington up to ocracoke right past Morehead City. But despite this and the big wind, the flash flooding then river flooding to follow espeacilly in southern coastal plain is gonna be one for the ages I'm afraid. And that's saying alot after what's taken place just the past 20 years on our coast and enc. All eyes on euro and its ensembles to see if they kiss the same landfall point mentioned above by the 12z suite before doing the slow death crawl all weekend across SC On this approach angle and slow crawl, the rivers inland will see hellacious surges. When the Pamlico starts to narrow from 4 miles wide to 2 miles wide over just a few miles the water will get piled up quickly. Places deeper inland like Chocowinity, Washington, Belhaven will see some of the worst surges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I work for a trucking company out of Charlotte, and I can already forsee issues with relief efforts. Nobody knows where to set up preparations yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, jjwxman said: So how about this forecast for Greensboro from RAH... is this their way of telling folks not to let their guard down? Seems a little over the top to me based on the forecasts... Thoughts? I believe they had that up yesterday. The county next to me has the same forecast as well. I am sure it'll be adjusted as the forecast continues to change. But you should never let your guard completely up. Although models really seem to have come to a general consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, jjwxman said: So how about this forecast for Greensboro from RAH... is this their way of telling folks not to let their guard down? Seems a little over the top to me based on the forecasts... Thoughts? I mean right now you have 111mph flight level winds 110 miles north of the center. And the hurricane force wind radii seem to only be expanding. I certainly think they're trying to be proactive but I wouldn't call it ridiculous with a storm this size. Strong rain bands can absolutely mix those winds down to the surface at times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I'm looking forward to it too, stay safe during Florence!Same to you. I think you’ll need positive thoughts headed your way more than I will. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 29 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Add HRWF/HMON to the models showing a SE NC landfall. The NC beaches are about to be redesigned. CMC at 12Z basically runs the what if the stall/turn is 75-100 miles later scenario.....this is still very plausible and with the way she is booking it NW right now the CMC may be leading the pack on a north inland correction.....bottom line this would put central, and inland eastern NC in legit hurricane conditions....CMC drifts WSW from here.....but this is the NW extent the center makes it this run. Not saying this is going to happen just saying this option is still very much on the table depending on the trough and ridge timing etc.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I hate to see what’s going to happen to Wrightsville Beach and Masonboro. Always my favorite spots to surf. I taught my now 16 year old and 14 year old daughters to surf there when they were 8 and 6 respectively. My 14 year old has been wondering all week if where she learned to surf will still look the same.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, tramadoc said: I hate to see what’s going to happen to Wrightsville Beach and Masonboro. Always my favorite spots to surf. I taught my now 16 year old and 14 year old daughters to surf there when they were 8 and 6 respectively. My 14 year old has been wondering all week if where she learned to surf will still look the same. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk There will be definitely be some new sandbars that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 Location: 30.4°N 71.8°W Moving: NW at 16 mph Min pressure: 948 mb Max sustained: 125 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 @RaleighWx 2m2 minutes ago The 12z ECMWF brings the eye of #Florence over Cape Fear around 11am Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Thru hr54, Euro is virtually identical to the last run....brings it into Onslow Bay right close to the coast, then moves it west into the Wilmington area. I would expect the surge to be really bad there in Topsail to Emerald Isle given the storm size now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 By hr72, it has dropped due south out over the open water, then into a position just NE of Charleston, right along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Observation, just came off the Beach, (Carolina Beach),, High tide @ 11:45 pm,, Strong steady ESE~SE Winds STEADY @ 20mph.. Beach is already beginning to experience some , (Higher than Normal High tide, pushed by Winds) overwash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: By hr72, it has dropped due south out over the open water, then into a position just NE of Charleston, right along the coast The surge is going to be held in place by relentless onshore winds for days it seems in certain places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 hr72-78, Euro is crawling at a position just NE of Charleston still, right along the coast, still a formidable storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Euro basically hasn't moved the storm from hr72-87, it's still just NE of Charleston....unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 12z ECMWF Track out to 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 It still hasn't moved, hr87-96, torrential rains in NE section of SC into SE NC. It finally kicks west across southern SC at hr99 Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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