gravitylover Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 15 minutes ago, Rainforrest said: Definitely not good. We’ve already had 103 inches so far this year. I don’t know how much more we can handle. 103"? WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 12, 2018 Author Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said: Thats amazing. If you get the full eye you would have time to clean up the yard, wash the car, grill some burgers and take a nap before the backside comes thru! Cant imagine that is accurate?! Oh its accurate. Go pull up the 12z Nam sim radar views, zoom in at landfall forecast and its breathtaking how massive the eye. These EWRC have made this into a monster size wise. You can fit almost All of Randolph,Guilford,Forsyth and Davidson county inside the Nam sim view of the eyewall. Its posted on the other board. Really puts size of storm in perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, wake4est said: Canadian does too You talking about the RGEM or last night's CMC? The NAM is now making landfall, as does the RGEM, which tracks west after instead of SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 12, 2018 Author Share Posted September 12, 2018 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 This was in the RAH mid-morning discussion. Latest upr air data over the sern US this morning indicates a developing mid-upr level ridge there is already 10-20 meters stronger than forecast. This strengthening ridge is separated from an even stronger sub-tropical ridge situated several hundred miles n of Bermuda, by a tropopause-level trough axis stretching from about 100 miles east of HSE sswwd to an embedded circulation 200 miles east of JAX, sswd to another circulation centered about 150 miles north of the Yucatan. The presence of both that trough axis, and the developing/expanding ridge over the sern US, will ultimately serve to slow/halt the nwwd progress of powerful Hurricane Florence, particularly by Thu, when the anomalously strong ridge n of Bermuda weakens and drifts swwd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northwestgastormdawg Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 38 minutes ago, ragtop50 said: That is from the 5 a.m. discussion Yes it is but the way things are going it is still a valid point for the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 GFS is just sitting and spinning over Wilmington for hours - on shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geno Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 140 mile wide eye? Link to source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 GFS is now bring it onshore ILM before stalling. Will be interesting to see if this is a trend. THE NAM/GFS/ICON/RGEM are all showing landfall now in ILM or roughly that area. From there IMO it will bend westward. I'm still thinking this goes up the NC/SC border like the euro was showing for days before this anomalous shift yesterday. Could be wrong, but it wouldn't surprise me. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, HKY_WX said: GFS is now bring it onshore ILM before stalling. Will be interesting to see if this is a trend. THE NAM/GFS/ICON/RGEM are all showing landfall now in ILM or roughly that area. From there IMO it will bend westward. I'm still thinking this goes up the NC/SC border like the euro was showing for days before this anomalous shift yesterday. Could be wrong, but it wouldn't surprise me. I agree with this. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 What a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjtysinger Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 While not perfect, the track is the better outcome for N.C. I know things can change but at this point if the NHC is trending SSW I think it will turn out ok! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 The GFS is running down the SC coast / just inland of SC coast from hr81-93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 42 minutes ago, Rainforrest said: Definitely not good. We’ve already had 103 inches so far this year. I don’t know how much more we can handle. Welp, username checks out... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 hours ago, Subtropics said: @SENC Are you staying put in Wrightsville? yes, but you mean Carolina Beach.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Will be interesting if this makes landfall into SE NC and then starts the drift (W or SW??) By that point the damage has been done to the NC beaches and then the interior flooding situation begins. Would probably still results in some good inland winds for eastern NC and NE SC. Just another scenario to take into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 16 minutes ago, Geno said: 140 mile wide eye? Link to source. There's no way the eye is 140 miles wide. That would be greater than the distance from Wilmington to Raleigh which is only 114 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 UKMet on the crude maps looks similar to the GFS after hr72....it looks like it is between Myrtle Beach and Charleston at hr72, then moves into the southern third of South Carolina (I don't have the maps before hr72 yet). GFS and UKMet both moved a little south thru South Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, griteater said: UKMet on the crude maps looks similar to the GFS after hr72....it looks like it is between Myrtle Beach and Charleston at hr72, then moves into the southern third of South Carolina (I don't the maps before hr72 yet). GFS and UKMet both moved a little south thru South Carolina. At hr48, UKMet is right near Wilmington / Cape Fear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderwolf Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Steven_1974 said: There's no way the eye is 140 miles wide. That would be greater than the distance from Wilmington to Raleigh which is only 114 miles. Just measured the satellite, it looks like its about 35 miles wide N-S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 There's no way the eye is 140 miles wide. That would be greater than the distance from Wilmington to Raleigh which is only 114 miles.To be fair, each longitudinal/latitudinal line is approximately 60 miles from either N-S or E-W. Looking at what Michael Ventrice posted and plotting, it does look like it's 140 miles wide.Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 22 minutes ago, Geno said: 140 mile wide eye? Link to source. 5 minutes ago, Steven_1974 said: There's no way the eye is 140 miles wide. That would be greater than the distance from Wilmington to Raleigh which is only 114 miles. Here is where I got it from https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1039895342609772544 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Here is where I got it fromhttps://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1039895342609772544I explained the reasoning behind your comment and what Michael Ventrice tweeted. BTW, good to see you brother!! Looking forward to some winter tracking with you again this year.Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 So the crappy models are north and the good models moved south. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjtysinger Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: So the crappy models are north and the good models moved south. Cool. Which models have it coming North? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: So the crappy models are north and the good models moved south. Cool. So in snow we hug the model that shows the most amount of snow but really know the model that is correct is the one that shows the least. Which model do we follow in this case? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Welp, username checks out...It's rained a TON in WNC this summer. Boone area just had flash flooding last night. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 It's rained a TON in WNC this summer. Boone area just had flash flooding last night. Sent from my SM-G960U using TapatalkIt came a hell of a thunder storm last night around 230am. Hellacious thunder and it absolutely poured. I’m on my way to Leland NC to ride out the storm. It’s about 20 min west of Wilmington . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 12z GFS makes landfall on Friday vicinity of Wrightsville Beach. That is far enough north to cause some power outages in parts of central and eastern NC especially downeast NC and the sandhills. Raleigh will feel it in this position. Don't let your guard down, Florence is an impressively strong storm and obviously very dangerous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 The tornado threat will also be rather high in central and eastern NC especially with a stalling system as the outer bands more prone to tornados will be constant....imagine there will be tons coming on off the ocean over the OBX as well.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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