ryan1234 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, RTPGiants said: I know it's the NAM, but do we care at all that it seems to keep a bit more of a northerly run? It's shaping up less on 12z, but still north of global models. In theory we're inside its range... Seeing how large the cone of uncertainty is, I don't think anything is off the table. However, a northern route is looking less and less likely as of now. How did the NAM do during Irma? I don't remember so any input would be great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Nam looks like landfall in wilm, nc and then a stall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, ryan1234 said: Seeing how large the cone of uncertainty is, I don't think anything is off the table. However, a northern route is looking less and less likely as of now. How did the NAM do during Irma? I don't remember so any input would be great! I remember it doing fairly well, but I wouldn't put money on it. Either way, it looks pretty similar to the 6Z GFS to me -- maybe a little further west, but definitely within the margin of error. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 11 minutes ago, griteater said: National Hurricane Center TAFB - "Wave heights to 83 ft were measured early this morning under the NE quadrant of Hurricane Florence." https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1039882107399622657 That is crazy! For perspective, that wave is approximately as tall as this building. Imagine standing at the base of this building and seeing a wave that tall approach you. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Western NC could be in some trouble with flooding. Some places along the escarpment have had 3 or 4 inches of rain the past few days already..GFS and Euro paints 6 to 10 inches in that area and could be more with optimal orographic uplift. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 We get an update from the NHC at 11am ET right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 An alternate view of the lack of steering flow (this is 500mb GFS forecast at 6z Sun) - click link for motion - https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/09/16/0600Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-82.92,43.14,667/loc=0.607,24.216 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 11 AM cone and specs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 40 minutes ago, pdw said: Hello, I am just a regular person that knows nothing about weather but I am located in Middle Georgia and was just wanting to know if I should be worried about my area experiencing any bad weather other than having a few wind gusts and moderate rain. I know the track is very uncertain and it is still too early to make decisions on an absolute path but I was wondering if this can turn into something really bad for Georgia. Keep check on your local NWS office. Your area could still get eyewall effects if the path ends up that way. If so, you could have down trees and power outages. Local flooding is possible as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northwestgastormdawg Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 This sticks out for SC and Georgia The NHC track has been adjusted southward at days 4 and 5, and is a little north of the consensus out of respect for continuity, however, the GFS, ECMWF, and the ECMWF ensemble mean is south of the NHC track forecast, and additional southward adjustment may be warranted in future advisories. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Forward motion is down from 17 to 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Power Outage forecast - https://twitter.com/JamesBelanger/status/1039888372607721473 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 33 minutes ago, griteater said: National Hurricane Center TAFB - "Wave heights to 83 ft were measured early this morning under the NE quadrant of Hurricane Florence." https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1039882107399622657 That is ****ing amazing. Thanks. I don't recall ever seeing such a report. That energy will propagate into devastating surge for the Cape Lookout region on the projected path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, griteater said: Power Outage forecast - https://twitter.com/JamesBelanger/status/1039888372607721473 70-80% power outage for Orangeburg... Not good since my brother is on a nebulizer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 16 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Western NC could be in some trouble with flooding. Some places along the escarpment have had 3 or 4 inches of rain the past few days already..GFS and Euro paints 6 to 10 inches in that area and could be more with optimal orographic uplift. Yep agreed. We just had a flood warning here early this morning. Close to 3 inches just last night in northern end of county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 10 minutes ago, northwestgastormdawg said: This sticks out for SC and Georgia The NHC track has been adjusted southward at days 4 and 5, and is a little north of the consensus out of respect for continuity, however, the GFS, ECMWF, and the ECMWF ensemble mean is south of the NHC track forecast, and additional southward adjustment may be warranted in future advisories. That is from the 5 a.m. discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Am I misreading the latest update? I was under the assumption this storm (for NE GA, the Upstate and Western NC) was for like late Sunday or Monday. I guess I did not realize the storm would be starting earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 That's when the respective areas have at least a 5% chance of receiving TS winds, so they're going to show early date and times to reflect faster possible motion of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said: That's when the respective areas have at least a 5% chance of receiving TS winds, so they're going to show early date and times to reflect faster possible motion of the system. Ah, thanks. Trying to keep up on the latest while I am at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, NEGa said: Am I misreading the latest update? I was under the assumption this storm (for NE GA, the Upstate and Western NC) was for like late Sunday or Monday. I guess I did not realize the storm would be starting earlier? Its a misleading graphic, and I think they should change the way they present that information because it will confuse most of the general public. Why show 5% chances in that manner? The information could still be reported, but not in such an alarming and confusing manner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NyCwEaThErFeEn Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 This will be a disaster for Wilmington North Carolina. Probably 20 inches of rain and gusts of 130 mph with swells of up to 7 feet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 14 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Yep agreed. We just had a flood warning here early this morning. Close to 3 inches just last night in northern end of county. Definitely not good. We’ve already had 103 inches so far this year. I don’t know how much more we can handle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said: Its a misleading graphic, and I think they should change the way they present that information because it will confuse most of the general public. Why show 5% chances in that manner? The information could still be reported, but not in such an alarming and confusing manner. Its very useful as a business owner. I'm getting my trucks off the road at noon tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just... What... A 140mi wide eye?! https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1039895342609772544 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Justicebork said: Its very useful as a business owner. I'm getting my trucks off the road at noon tomorrow. Good point. I'll stand corrected then. If it is useful to folks then I'm good with it too. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 So the timing in the turn is crucial for us interior eastern nc guys. That trough is any slower weakening the ridge and it gets even 30 to 50 miles further north then that's gonna give us a little worse weather. Obviously any faster and spares us from any significant weather. I question a models stall and turn and it could quite easy be earlier or later so its gonna boil down to nowcasting when that exact point is when it turns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 ICON tracks quite a bit farther north after stalling near ILM. Never makes it into SC. The last two runs have been farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Just... What... A 140mi wide eye?! https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1039895342609772544 Thats amazing. If you get the full eye you would have time to clean up the yard, wash the car, grill some burgers and take a nap before the backside comes thru! Cant imagine that is accurate?! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, shaggy said: So the timing in the turn is crucial for us interior eastern nc guys. That trough is any slower weakening the ridge and it gets even 30 to 50 miles further north then that's gonna give us a little worse weather. Obviously any faster and spares us from any significant weather. I question a models stall and turn and it could quite easy be earlier or later so its gonna boil down to nowcasting when that exact point is when it turns. Which if that holds true, turns into nowcasting for all of us farther down the coast. A lot of people I've talked to have assumed it would be fairly weak when it moves SW. Staying stronger would change the game just a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: ICON tracks quite a bit farther north after stalling near ILM. Never makes it into SC. The last two runs have been farther north. Canadian does too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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